Opening Bell : Markets likely to get cautious start amid mixed global cues
Indian markets closed flat on Thursday after a volatile session, driven by lack of major domestic or global triggers. Today, markets are likely to get cautious start amid mixed global cues in holiday thin trade. Traders will be taking encouragement as expressing confidence, Finance Ministry in its monthly review has said that India's economy is set to grow at around 6.5 per cent in FY25. The Finance Minister further said that the growth outlook for October to December appears bright, with rural demand remaining resilient and urban demand picking up in the first two months of the quarter. Traders may take note of report that India's market capitalisation has soared 18.4 per cent to $5.18 trillion in 2024, adding $806 billion. This growth ranked third globally among the top 15 major markets, both in percentage and absolute terms. India will finish the year with the fifth biggest global market. However, there may be some cautiousness as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) extended their selling on December 26 as they offloaded equities worth Rs 2,376.67 crore. Traders may be concerned as the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said the depreciation of Indian rupee against the US dollar is expected to push the country's import bill by about $15 billion. Compared to December last year, the Indian Rupee (INR) has depreciated 2.34 per cent against the US dollar, moving from Rs 83.25 to Rs 85.20. There will be some buzz in hotel & restaurant industry stocks with Crisil Ratings in a report stating that branded hotels in the country are likely to see double-digit revenue growth of 13-14 per cent in 2024-25, and 11-12 per cent in the next financial year on demand surge. Banking stocks will be in focus as the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) annual publication noted that commercial banks in India reported a sixth consecutive year of rise in their net profits in 2023-24 while bad loans continued to fall. There will be some reaction in healthcare industry stocks with a private report that India’s healthcare sector is expected to reach $320 billion by 2028. The report added the pharmaceutical sector is targeting $130 billion by 2030 and biotechnology is aiming for $300 billion by the same year. NBFCs will be in limelight as the RBI in a report has said that non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) need to further diversify their sources of funding as a risk mitigation strategy, as their dependence on banks remains high despite some moderation in recent times. Meanwhile, in the primary markets, meanwhile, Mamata Machinery IPO, DAM Capital Advisors IPO, Sanathan Textiles IPO, Concord Enviro Systems IPO, and Transrail Lighting IPO will list on the bourses.
The US markets ended mostly in red on Thursday after scaling the highest level since May in light, directionless post-Christmas trading. Asian markets are trading mixed on Friday with Japanese markets leading regional gains amid fresh weakness in the yen.
Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended a largely range-bound session on a flat note on Thursday amidst holidays in peer markets and a lack of major domestic or global triggers. Markets made a positive start and extended gains as traders took support with a private report that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth, which plunged to 5.4 per cent in the July-September quarter, is making a comeback in the October-December period, according to high-frequency indicators cited in the State of the Economy report by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). However, key indices soon erased initial gains and were trading flat throughout the day as trading volumes remained subdued due to year-end holidays as investors wrapped books for the year. Some concern came as net foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country has slowed considerably, with latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its December bulletin showing that it decelerated to $2.1 billion during April-October 2024 from $7.7 billion a year ago, majorly due to the rise in repatriation and net outward FDI. Besides, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 2,454.21 crore on Tuesday, according to exchange data. Traders overlooked a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bulletin showing that the Indian economy is recovering from the slowdown in momentum witnessed in the September quarter, driven by strong festival activity and a sustained upswing in rural demand. Traders also paid no heed towards the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation’s (MoSPI) latest release of the results of Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) for 2023-24 for the reference period October, 2023 - September, 2024, showing that there was significant growth in establishments, employment, and productivity in the unincorporated non-agricultural sector, demonstrating the sector's recovery from pandemic-related challenges and its resurgence with renewed momentum. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 0.39 points to 78,472.48, and the CNX Nifty was up by 22.55 points or 0.10% to 23,750.20.
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