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Indian equity markets are likely to make gap-down opening on Thursday as investors may remain cautious after US President Donald Trump said in an address that US forces will hit Iran ‘very hard’ over the next two to three weeks. Additionally, some cautiousness may come from foreign institutional investors, who were net sellers of shares worth Rs 8,331.15 crore on Wednesday. Traders are likely to adopt wait-and-watch approach ahead of release of the HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final data. 

Some of the key factors to be watched:    

Banks' credit growth to moderate in FY27; NPAs to inch up: Amid the West Asia conflict, domestic rating agency Crisil has estimated that banks' credit growth would moderate marginally in FY27 and delinquencies would rise.

SEZ duty relief a one-time measure, not policy shift: The report said the government's decision to extend limited duty concessions to manufacturing units in special economic zones (SEZs) for selling goods in the domestic market is a one-time relief measure and not a permanent policy change. 

India permits exports of essential commodities to Maldives for 2026-27: India has permitted export of specified quantities of certain commodities like eggs, potatoes, onions, rice, wheat flour, sugar, and dal for the Maldives for 2026-27. 

Govt imposes import curbs on gold, silver jewellery to check misuse of FTAs: The government announced curbs on imports of gold, platinum and silver jewellery with immediate effect, a move aimed at checking misuse of free trade agreements (FTAs). 

Cement sector’s stocks will be in watch: A report by rating agency ICRA said the cement industry is expected to grow by 7-8 per cent in the current fiscal year (FY27), supported by sustained demand from housing and infrastructure sectors. 

On the global front: The US markets ended in green on Wednesday as hope grew that an end to the U.S.-Iran war was on the horizon. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Thursday despite the broadly positive cues from Wall Street overnight.

Back home, starting the new fiscal year (2026-27) on a high note, Indian equity benchmarks closed over one and half per cent higher on Wednesday, in tandem with a sharp rally in global markets on hopes of a potential de-escalation in the ongoing West Asia conflict. A drop in crude oil prices also boosted the market sentiment. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 1186.77 points or 1.65% to 73,134.32 and the CNX Nifty was up by 348.00 points or 1.56% to 22,679.40. 

Some of the important factors in trade:

RBI extends export credit relief amid West Asia crisis: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has extended the enhanced export credit period of up to 450 days for pre-shipment and post-shipment finance for disbursals made till June 30, citing continued logistical disruptions due to the ongoing West Asia crisis. 

Govt reports 8.8% growth in GST collection for March: The government data has showed that total Gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection increased to over Rs 2,00,064 crore in March 2026 as compared to Rs 1,83,845 crore in March 2025, a growth of 8.8%, aided by tax mop-ups from domestic sales as well as imports. 

CBIC rolls out series of reforms to strengthen, streamline E-commerce exports: The Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) has rolled out a series of comprehensive reforms to strengthen and streamline E-Commerce exports as well as broader courier-based imports and exports with effect from April 1, 2026.

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