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Indian markets ended significantly lower on Thursday amid the monthly derivatives (F&O) expiry, rising crude oil price, and weakness in IT share. Today, markets are likely to get flat-to-positive start amid overnight gains on Wall Street and sharp fall in crude oil prices. Some support will come as the figures released by the Reserve Bank of India showed that India’s foreign exchange reserves in nominal terms (which includes valuation effects) rose by $16.6 billion during April-June 2023, mainly driven by strong Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) flows. However, foreign fund outflows likely to dampen sentiments. provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 3,364.22 crore on September 28. Some cautiousness may come as rating agency CRISIL said after clocking a robust 15.9 per cent growth in FY23, the bank credit growth in India is likely to moderate to 13-13.5 per cent in the current financial year (FY24). It will improve to 13.5-14 per cent in the next financial year (FY25) as economic growth picks up. Traders may be concerned with a private report that India's external debt rose modestly by 2.7 percent to $629 billion as of end June over the same period a year ago as NRI deposits picked up, with other major components almost remaining flat over the period. Traders continue to remain concerned as India's current account deficit (CAD) surged to $9.2 billion in the first quarter of 2023-24, more than seven times what it was in the preceding quarter.  Realty stocks will be in focus with a private report that home sales in the top seven cities of India reached an all-time high of 120,280 units between July and September. Sales this year were higher by 36 per cent, when compared to 88,230 units sold in the same period in 2022. There will be some reaction in sugar industry stocks with a private report that India is likely to ban sugar exports during the upcoming season, starting October 1. Online gaming industry stocks will be in limelight as Chairman Sanjay Kumar Agarwal said CBIC is ready to implement 28 percent GST on online gaming from October 1.

The US markets ended higher on Thursday after bond yields slipped from 16-year highs and crude prices pulled back from their highest level in more than a year. Asian markets are mostly in green on Friday in thin trade amid China's Golden week holiday.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended lower by around a percent on Thursday amid the monthly derivatives (F&O) expiry and weakness in IT, FMCG and TECK stocks. After making a slightly positive start, benchmark indices slipped deeper into losses as the day progressed as persistent foreign fund outflows dented sentiments. Provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed that foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 354.35 crore on September 27. Some concerns also came with a private report that investment in Indian startups dropped to a five-year low in the third quarter of calendar year 2023, with funding declining by 54 per cent year-on-year to $1.5 billion. The funding also fell 29 per cent quarter-on-quarter. Sentiments remained dampened as Reserve Bank data showed that India's external debt rose marginally to $629.1 billion at June-end 2023, although the debt-GDP ratio declined. The debt rose by about $4.7 billion from $624.3 billion at March-end. Markets continued to trade deep in red in late afternoon session, amid reports stating that India's current account deficit (CAD) surged to $9.2 billion in the first quarter of 2023-24, more than seven times what it was in the preceding quarter. According to data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), CAD in April-June amounted to 1.1 percent of GDP. Traders overlooked Fitch Ratings’ statement that the inclusion of certain Indian sovereign bonds in key emerging-market bond indices managed by JP Morgan will support a diversification of the investor base for Indian government securities. Traders also paid no heed towards External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s statement that in the next 25 years, the country's Amrit Kaal as espoused by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India will strive to be a developed country and it is logical that it also seeks to be a global power. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 610.37 points or 0.92% to 65,508.32 and the CNX Nifty down by 192.90 points or 0.98% to 19,523.55.

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