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Nifty : 22957

Technical Outlook

Week that was… Equity benchmarks extended gains over second consecutive week and clocked a fresh All Time High. Nifty surged 2% to settle the week at 22957. Meanwhile, broader market relatively underperformed as Nifty Midcap gained 1% while small cap lost 0.7%. Sectorally, all major indices ended the week in green lead by meta, auto, PSU Banks

Technical Outlook:

• On expected lines, index resolved higher and surpassed the milestone of 22800. Consequently, Nifty logged a new life high of 23026. The weekly price action formed a sizable bull candle carrying higher highlow, indicating acceleration of upward momentum on the breach of March high of 22794. In the process, Nifty midcap index continued to inch northward and endured its record setting spree over sixth consecutive session

• Going ahead, we reiterate our positive stance expect Nifty to head toward our earmarked target of 23400 in coming weeks. Key point to highlight is that, The Nifty has recorded breakout from three months consolidation backed by faster retracement as it entirely retraced past nine weeks consolidation (22800-21700) in just two weeks. The faster pace of retracement exhibits robust price structure that bodes well for extension of ongoing up move. In the process, we expect volatility to remain high as we approach the fag end of the General election phases coupled with Q4 earning season. We believe, focus should be on big picture, as we are in structural uptrend. The anxiety will subside post event and markets will follow its structural up trend. Retracement of rally would thus provide a buying opportunity and therefore investors should focus on building portfolios and ride the uptrend as immediate support is placed at 22400. Our positive stance is corroborated by following observations:

• A) In sync with the historical evidences, Nifty staged a strong rebound post 5% and clocked a new high, highlighting robust price structure. Empirically, index has corrected ~6% during polling phase of past four elections and eventually hit new highs around election outcome on three occasions

• B) The multi sector participation backed by improving market breadth (Amongst Nifty 500 universe, 77% stocks are trading above 200 days EMA), highlighting inherent strength

• C) Roust price stature of global markets and lower brent prices are expected to act as tailwind

• Structurally, formation of higher peak and trough makes us confident to revise support base upward at 22400 as it is confluence of 20 days EMA coincided with 50% retracement of current up move (21821- 23026) and last week’s low of 22404

Nifty Bank: 48971

Technical Outlook

Day that was :

The Nifty Bank index extended gains on Friday to post highest weekly close . Index closed at 48971 , up 203 points or 0 .42 %

Technical Outlook :

• The Bank Nifty index started the session on flat note and then gained in follow up to Thursdays strong gains indicating continuation of positive bias with higher high -low . We expect Nifty bank index to head towards 50000 mark in coming weeks which is life highs . Meanwhile 47500 remains an immediate support for index

• Since late Jan’24 low of 44633 , Index is following a well channeled up move forming higher bottoms in the vicinity of rising 100 -day ema (47050 ) . Each time after bouncing from lower band index has tested higher band with approx . 7 % rally . We expect this rhythm to be maintained

• Structurally, current decline from life highs is a healthy retracement and therefore does not alter positional bullish stance . We therefore expect that current decline would result into a higher base formation around 47000 followed by resumption of rally towards highs

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