IGI Logo

In our opinion:

* A third consecutive production hike is increasingly likely at upcoming OPEC+ meeting on 2 nd Nov, 2025 in the backdrop of recent sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. .

* As India reduces its Russian oil intake, the most plausible medium-term outcome is a shift towards the Middle East for bulk imports.

* With crude oil in transit reaching its highest level since 2016 – approximately 1.4 Bn barrels at the time of writing – it’s an overhang on oil prices. The anticipated seasonal dip in demand this quarter could exert downward pressure on prices.

We maintain our Brent estimate USD69.0/barrel (b) for the Calendar Year 2025 (as published on June 13th, 2025), as compared to YTD average of USD69.1/b.

Expanded view: A third consecutive production hike appears likely at the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on 2 nd Nov 2025, following sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. This move would contribute to the unwinding of roughly 1.66 million b/d of production cut previously set to remain in place until end of 2026. Over the past week, China and India confirmed they would not buy crude from the sanctioned entities; however, IOCL stated it will continue sourcing Russian oil through non-sanctioned suppliers. MRPL, meanwhile, indicated that Kuwaiti barrels are currently more suitable than Russian crude if the Urals-to-Brent discount stays near USD2.5/b. With Russia’s share in India’s import mix shrinking, the US has overtaken the UAE as India’s fourth-largest supplier – though higher WTI prices (about USD2.5/b above Urals) weigh on refining margins. We expect India’s sourcing to gradually shift towards the Middle East. With oil in transit at a record 1.4 billion barrels – the highest since 2016 – and seasonal demand softening, prices may remain under pressure. We maintain our Brent forecast at USD69.0/b for CY 2025, versus a YTD average of US $69.1/b.

For Detailed Report With Disclaimer Visit. https://choicebroking.in/disclaimer

SEBI Registration no.: INZ 000160131