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Nifty :25104

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

• Indian equity benchmarks took breather after four sessions of up move. The Nifty settled flat at 25104. Despite the breather market breadth was in favor of advances, with an A/D ratio of 1.20:1, as the broader market outperformed. Sectorally, Realty, PSU Bank, and Auto were the laggards, whereas, IT, Pharma and Consumer Durables outperformed.

Technical Outlook:

• Nifty opened the day on a positive note and witnessed profit booking near previous sessions high. After the initial decline index traded within 77 points range throughout the session. This led to the formation of small red candle, signaling breather after four sessions of strong upmove.

• Nifty sustained above the Three-week consolidation breakout with a run-away-gap for the second consecutive day despite profit booking. The resumption of uptrend after shallow correction confirms that the bull market template is still intact. Nifty would open the door for next leg of up move towards 25500 in coming weeks. Volatility along the way if any should be used as a buying opportunity as we do not expect Nifty to breach key support of 24700 in coming week.

• Key thing to highlight is that, the index has staged a strong 16% rally from April lows. Post that, Nifty has been consolidating over past two weeks wherein it corrected 3%. The elongation of rallies followed by shallow retracement is a key ingredient of a structural bull market. Any decline should be used as buying opportunity.

• On the broader market front, outperformance was clearly reflected in the ratio chart of Nifty 500 / Nifty 100 that continued to inch northward. The current rally is backed by improvement in the market breadth as currently 59% stocks of Nifty 500 universe are trading above their long term 200 days SMA compared to a month back reading of 30% that augurs well for durability of ongoing up move.

• Key monitorable which would provide cushion to the ongoing up move:

• a. US and India Inflation data

• b. FII's inflow • c. Further weakness in US Dollar index and Brent crude oil prices

• d. Bilateral Trade Agreement between India and US

• The index closed above 25000 mark for second consecutive session which makes us maintain our support base at 24700 as it is 20-day EMA and 61.80% retracement of recent rally (24500-25160).

Nifty Bank : 56629

Technical Outlook

Day that was :

• The Bank Nifty snapped four -session winning streak amid profit booking . The index settled at 56 ,629 , down 0 .37 % . The Nifty Pvt Bank index outperformed the benchmark, and closed the day on a flat note at 28 ,073 , down 0 .17 % .

Technical Outlook :

• Bank Nifty began the session on a positive note but witnessed profit booking as it approached the previous sessions high . Following an initial decline, the index traded within a narrow 231 -point range for the remainder of the session . This resulted in the formation of a small red candle, signaling a pause after four consecutive sessions of strong upward movement .

• Bank Nifty entered a brief consolidation phase after making a new life time high on Monday . Bank Nifty broke out from six weeks consolidation range and sustaining above it despite witnessing profit booking in Tuesday’s session, indicating inherent strength . The implied target of the consolidation range comes at 58800 . Meanwhile, strong support is placed at 55000 , which marks the 80 % retracement of the recent up -move (54 ,442 –57 ,049 ) . Any, decline from current levels would offer incremental buying opportunities .

• Structurally, the Bank Nifty is witnessing an elongation of rallies followed by shallow retracements, signifying a robust price structure . The recent up -move of 14 % is stronger compared to the previous month’s 9 % rise . Additionally, the declines are becoming shallower, with the recent one being 4 . 6 % versus 5 . 4 % in March 2025 . Furthermore, the index broke out of an eight - month falling trendline and surpassed its lifetime high, highlighting continued strength .

• Mirroring the benchmark the PSU Bank index also witnessed profit booking in the vicinity of Monday’s session high and closed on a negative note . The index broke out from an eleven -month falling trendline on 19th May and, since then, has been forming a higher -high -low structure, indicating strong upside momentum . While the Bank Nifty is trading at all -time high, the PSU Bank index is still trading ~12 % below its all -time high, presenting a compelling case for a catch -up move . Meanwhile, immediate support on the downside is placed at 6 ,700 , which is the 38 .20 % retracement of the rally from 7th April 2025 to 9th June 2025 .

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