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Morning Market Outlook

* The market is expected to open on a positive note due to a rally in global markets, following slowerthan-expected US inflation, which dropped to a 4-month low of 2.8%, and core inflation fell to a 4-year low of 0.2%.

* This has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later this year. Additionally, domestic inflation for February cooled to a 7-month low of 3.61%, well below the RBI's projection of 4%.

* Global rating agency's Mood’s upgrade for India GDP forecast to 6.5% from 6.3%, is likely to boost market sentiment.

* Globally, the US Nasdaq Composite Index gained 1.2% overnight, while the Dow Jones Index ended slightly lower. In Asia, markets rose up to 1%, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in its April meeting.

* Strong domestic economic growth and falling oil prices should further boost sentiment. Positive on Banks, Real estate, NBFC and Sugar stocks.

NIFTY (CMP : 22470) :

Nifty immediate support is at 22300 then 22222 zones while resistance at 22650 then 22800 zones. Now it has to hold above 22330 zones for an up move towards 22650 then 22800 zones while supports can be seen at 22300 then 22222 zones.

BANK NIFTY (CMP : 48056) :

Bank Nifty support is at 47750 then 47500 zones while resistance at 48250 then 48500 zones. Now it has to hold above 48000 zones for a bounce towards 48250 then 48500 levels while a hold below the same could see some weakness towards 47750 then 47500 zones.

Derivative Outlook

* Nifty March future closed at 22,530.35 with a premium of 59.85 point v/s 17.75 point premium in the last session.

* Nifty Put/Call Ratio (OI) decreased from 1.09 to 0.96 level.

* India VIX decreased by 2.70% to 13.69 level.

* On option front, Maximum Call OI is at 23000 then 22500 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 22300 then 22400 strike. Call writing is seen at 22600 then 22500 strike while Put writing is seen at 22300 then 22400 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 21800 to 22800 zones while an immediate range between 22200 to 22600 levels.

* Option Buying : Buy weekly Nifty 22400 Call if it holds above 22330 zones. Buy Bank Nifty 48800 Call if it holds above 48000 zones. (Mix View).

* Option Strategy : Nifty weekly Bull Call Spread (Buy 22500 CE and Sell 22650 CE) at net premium cost of 30-40 points. Bank Nifty Bull Call Spread (Buy 48500 CE and Sell 49000 CE) at net premium cost of 170-180 points.

* Option Writing : Sell weekly Nifty 22250 PE and 22700 CE with strict double SL. Sell Bank Nifty 46000 PE and 50000 CE with strict double SL.

Fundamental Outlook

Global Market Summary:

* US Markets saw a slight recovery on Wednesday, on cooler-than-expected inflation, however, gains were limited as investors weighed fresh tariff threats from U.S. President

* US consumer inflation (CPI) rose by 2.8% YoY in Feb, lower than 3.0% in Jan and below the anticipated 2.9%.

* S&P 500 rose 0.5%, NASDAQ gained 1.2% while Dow closed -0.2% lower.

* European markets gained 0.5-1.2% despite US tariffs, as sentiments were boosted after Ukraine agreeing to US peace talks

* Dow Futures is currently trading flat.

* Asian markets are trading mixed.

* Global Cues: Mixed

Indian Market Summary:

• Indian market ended marginally lower, amid volatility due to flare up in US tariff war.

• Nifty closed with loss of 27 points at 22,471 (-0.1%).

• Broader market underperformed with Nifty Midcap100 down 0.6% while Smallcap100 down 0.2%.

• India’s retail inflation CPI eased to 7-month low of 3.61% in Feb’25, down from 4.31% in January.

• The IIP growth was above expectation at 5% YoY in Jan’25 against 3.2% in December.

• FIIs: -Rs1628 crore DIIs: +Rs1510 crore.

• GIFT Nifty is trading marginally higher by 23 points (+0.1%).

• Domestic Cues: Flat to Positive

News and Impact :

• Coromandel International: The company signed a definitive agreement to acquire a 53% controlling stake in NACL Industries for Rs 820 crore at Rs76.7 per share from current promoters KLR Products. It will also make an open offer to the public to acquire up to 26% of the equity. Impact: Positive

BEL : CMP Rs278, TP 360, 29% Upside, Buy

* BEL received a Rs.2,463 crore contract from the Ministry of Defence for the supply and services of Ashwini Radars to the Indian Air Force.

* With these orders, BEL's total order inflow for the current financial year has reached Rs.17,030 crore.

* We expect BEL to remain a key beneficiary of defense electronics opportunities of large platform orders across the army, navy, and air force.

* The company expects large order inflows from QRSAM, MRSAM, next-generation corvettes, the defense electronics portion from P75 and P75I, and even Kavach-related orders to materialize in the coming years starting from FY26.

* We expect the company’s revenue to post a 19% CAGR over FY24-27 driven by improved market share on account of enhanced wallet share as well as improved indigenized offerings. View: Buy

Coal India : CMP Rs381, TP 480, 26% Upside, Buy

* The energy demand outlook remains robust for the medium-to-long term as the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) projects peak power demand in summer to hit 270GW over Mar-Jun’25 (~363GW by FY30). The upcoming a +40GW coal-based plant by FY30 will support coal demand.

* We estimate COAL's production to clock a 6% CAGR over FY24-27, with 15% dispatches via e-auction to result in higher NSR and better margins.

* The recent stock correction offers an attractive valuation, with the stock trading at 3.3x on FY27E EV/EBITDA, below its 10-year historical average.

* COAL remains our top pick in the sector. We reiterate our BUY rating with a TP of INR480/share, valuing the stock at 4.5x FY27E EV/EBITDA. View: Buy

What is this?

Based on technical indicators this strategy gives 2 stocks that have a high likelihood to fall during the day (from open to close). This is an intraday Sell strategy which can provide a good cushioning during a black swan event.

What are the rules?

* Stock names will be given at market open (9:15 am)

* Recommended time to entry: between 9:15 to 9:30 am.

* Entry: We short 2 stocks daily (intraday)

* Exit: we will exit at 3:15 as this is an intraday call

* SL: is placed at 1% of the open.

* Book profit: At 1% fall since open.

* In special situations the book profit might be delayed if the stock is in free fall.

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