IGI Logo

Nifty :24836

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

Nifty snapped eight days losing streak post RBI policy. Nifty settled at 24836 up 0.92%. Market breadth was in favor of advances, with an A/D ratio of 2.5:1 where broader markets mirrored the benchmark. Midcap and Small cap closed on a positive note up 0.90% and 1.10% respectively. Sectorally, barring PSU Bank all other indices closed in green. Where, Nifty PVT Bank, Nifty Financial Services and Pharma outshone.

Technical Outlook:

* Nifty opened on a flat note and post RBI policy witnessed strong buying while surpassing previous sessions high making higher-high-low throughout the session where intraday declines were bought into. As a result, daily price action formed a strong bull candle, indicating pause in the down move after eight session of decline.

* Index witnessed supportive effort in the vicinity of rising trend line (adj May 2025 and Aug 2025 low) coinciding with 80% retracement of the last leg of up move. Nifty has bounced amid oversold condition, since April 2025 it has been holding 100-day EMA, indicating inherent strength. Going ahead, follow through strength which was missing since 18th September 2025 will open the doors towards 25300 in coming weeks.

* Key point to highlight is that, since April 2025 lows of 21743 Nifty has rallied 18% within which there have been seven instances wherein intermediate corrections arrested within 3-5% range. In current scenario we believe index is approaching price and time wise maturity as it has corrected price wise ~3.5%. Meanwhile, in past Three decades there has been Twelve instances of eight sessions losing streak wherein, Nifty has staged a strong rebound after 8 sessions of correction, and witnessed 7% upside in coming one month, we expect same rhythm to continue; however, bouts of volatility cannot be ruled out, wherein strong support is placed in the range of 24400-24200 zone.

* On the structural front, we believe, current consolidation phase presents opportunities to accumulate quality stocks backed by strong earnings, particularly those positioned to benefit from next-generation GST reforms and upcoming festive season.

* The key support threshold of 24400-24200 zone is based on following observations:

* a) Over past four months key point to highlight is that, index has managed to defend the key support threshold of 24400 mark while absorbing host of negative news like geopolitical issues, India-Pakistan conflict, tariff concerns, quarterly earnings.

* b) The level of 24400 is aligning with the 200-day EMA and the previous gap support zone of 24,378–24,164, which indicates a high probability of demand emergence at lower levels and continuation of the primary up trend.

Nifty Bank : 55348

Technical Outlook

Day that was:

* Bank Nifty continued its winning streak for third consecutive days and closed on a positive note to settle at 55,348 up 1.30%. The Nifty Private Bank index has relatively outperformed the benchmark, ending the day at 26,984 up 2%.

Technical Outlook:

* Bank Nifty opened with a positive note, index witnessed supportive buying demand in the vicinity of previous session low. As a result the daily price action formed a strong bull candle carrying higher-highlow formation, indicating inherent strength.

* On expected line, the Index staged a strong rebound after retesting its falling trendline breakout point (as shown in a chart) and closed above the previous high after eight sessions. Key point to highlight is that, index has reclaimed its position well above all key moving averages, signals continuation of the uptrend. On the momentum indicator, the daily stochastic oscillator has witnessed bullish crossover, enhancing the probability of further positive traction in the near term. Going ahead, we expect index to extend its up move and challenge its previous swing high 55835 and eventually head towards 56800 being 80% retracement of the preceding decline (57628-53578).

* Following favorable GST reforms, focus now shifts to tariff negotiations, where any constructive outcome could act as a potential catalyst. Therefore, any dip from current levels should be seen as a buying opportunity, with immediate support placed near 54,000, representing the 80% retracement of the ongoing up move (53,561-55,835).

* Structurally, over the last eight weeks, the index has retraced only 38.2% of its preceding 16-week, 21% rally. This slower pace of retracement followed by a subsequent rebound which was the strongest of the last three recovery attempts reinforces the view of an underlying uptrend resumption.

* The PSU Bank Index has relatively underperformed the benchmark closing down 0.37%. The daily price action formed a minor bear candle, indicating breather after recent strong up move. A sustained close above the recent swing high of 7,567 would unlock further upside potential towards the measured move target of 7,700. On the downside, initial support is placed at 7,150, which aligns with the 50% retracement of the latest upswing (6,730–7,567) coincides with the 50-day EMA

.

Please refer disclaimer at https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html

SEBI Registration number INZ000183631