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Nifty

Nifty extended its losing streak to the eighth consecutive session, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows that reinforces the ongoing downward spiral. The index surrendered its entire monthly gains, closing September at 24611, only slightly above its opening zone of 24432, after hitting a high of 25,448 earlier in the month. Historically, October has favored the bulls with seven positive closes in the last 10 years. However, exceptions in 2018, 2023, and 2024 saw sharp declines of 5%, 2.9%, and 6.2%, respectively, reminding traders of the risks in seasonal optimism. On the technical front, daily RSI continues to weaken while ADX remains firm above 31, indicating further downside potential. The index is also trading below its 5-WEMA (24780) and 20-WEMA (24680), strengthening the bearish tone. Options data reflects a steady downward shift in trading range, with 24700 now as the immediate hurdle and 24000 forming the lower boundary. Sectoral divergence persists, with defensives holding ground while cyclicals remain under pressure. A breach below 24600 could open room toward 24200. Traders should remain cautious, hedge longs, and await a confirmed reversal before reducing protection.

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