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Nifty

Nifty ended its losing streak with a long-range bullish bar that engulfed the past three sessions’ decline, kicking off October on a strong note. Seasonality favors the bulls, with seven positive Octobers in the past decade, though the sharp declines of 2018 (-5%), 2023 (-2.9%), and 2024 (-6.2%) remind traders to temper optimism with caution. Technically, the index closed above the 24820 hurdle, but RSI remains below 50 and ADX continues to signal weakness. Sustained closes above 24820 would be key to triggering short covering toward the psychological 25000 mark and eventually the 25170 zone. That said, price action still lingers below its 50-DEMA (24900) and 5-WEMA (24870), leaving the structure fragile. Immediate support is placed at 24700, while option data suggests a broader base near 24,000. A dip below 24600 could extend downside risk to 24200. Sectoral divergence persists, with defensives offering resilience even as cyclicals stay under pressure. Until a confirmed reversal emerges, traders are advised to stay hedged, remain selective, and avoid complacency.

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