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Nifty

Nifty extended its bullish run for the fifth consecutive session, registering its first close above the 25000 milestone in several months. However, Friday's rally was accompanied by a sharp deterioration in broader market breadth, with declining stocks outnumbering advances, suggesting that buying participation remained concentrated in select heavyweight stocks. Daily RSI has moved closer to the 80 zone, indicating stretched momentum, while ADX at 44 and rising continues to confirm strong underlying trend strength, with no clear signs of deterioration. Nevertheless, the widening gap from the 5 DEMA near 24,500 raises the possibility of intermittent profit-booking or a cooling-off phase. 25115–25475 band represents a major congestion and supply zone. Sustained buying above 25500 could open the door for further upside, although fresh aggressive longs at elevated levels carry higher risk, particularly during this truncated trading week. The 5 DEMA near 24500 remains the immediate dynamic support. A decisive break below this level could trigger deeper consolidation and a corrective phase within the broader bullish structure. India VIX surged 12.1% to 17.47, signaling rising volatility expectations and the possibility of sharper intraday swings. The broader trend remains strongly bullish, but the risk-reward setup is less favourable for chasing prices. Traders should remain selective, trail stop-losses and prefer buying on orderly dips near support. Investors may consider staggered profit-booking in stocks that have rallied sharply while retaining exposure to fundamentally strong companies.

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