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Technical Outlook

Week that was…

* Indian equity benchmarks underperformed its global peers amid increasing anxiety ahead of trade deal deadline. Nifty closed the week at 25461 down 0.69%. Broader markets relatively outperformed the benchmark. Midcap and Small cap indices closed on a flat to positive note. Sectorally, Realty, Financial Services and FMCG underperformed, while, Pharma, PSU Bank and IT outperformed.

Technical Outlook:

* Index under went minor profit booking due to lack of follow through strength above previous weeks high. This resulted into the formation of small bear candle with small lower wick, indicating breather after two weeks upmove.

* The index is sustaining well above recent consolidation breakout that coincided with 20 days EMA which has been majorly held since April-25. We believe, ongoing retracement would make market healthy and pave the way to head towards 25800 in the coming week. Going ahead, all eyes will be on outcome of US-India bilateral trade deal coupled with onset of Q1FY26 earning season which would dictate the further course of action. The better-thanexpected outcome would fuel momentum to challenge All Time High in coming month wherein strong support is placed at 24900. From the seasonality perspective, July has been the favourable month for Nifty since 1991, 71% of the time returns have been positive with an average of 2.5%.

* Structurally, over past three months index has maintained its winning streak while absorbing host of negative news around geopolitical uncertainties coupled with clarity of trade tariff. In the process, market breadth has shown gradual improvement as currently ~60% stocks of Nifty 500 universe are trading above 200 days EMA compared to last month's reading of 52% that bodes well for durability of ongoing up move.

* On the broader market front, the Nifty midcap and small cap indices have witnessed flat to positive close relatively outperformed the benchmark and now just 2-3% away from their life time highs. Meanwhile, northward inching ratio of Nifty 500 / Nifty 100 makes us believe that broader market would continue with its outperformance.

* On the global macro front, weakness in US Dollar index would result into FII's inflow in emerging markets while cool off in Brent crude oil would boost the market sentiment.

* The formation of higher peak and trough makes us maintain our support base at 24900 for the Nifty which is based on 61.8% retracement of recent rally (24473-25654) and 20-day EMA.

Nifty Bank : 57032

Technical Outlook

Week that was

* The Bank Nifty ended the week on a negative note and settled at 57032 , down 0 .72 % . The Nifty Pvt Bank index, underperformed the benchmark, and closed the week on a negative note at 28065 .85 , down 1 .54 %

Technical Outlook

* The Bank Nifty faced slight profit booking after struggling to extend gains above the previous weeks high . The formation of a small bearish candle with a small lower wick, indicating healthy breather within the ongoing uptrend .

* Key point to highlight is that, Bank Nifty respected the nine -month rising trendline as support, reaffirming bullish intent in line with the rule of polarity . The index continues to trade above its 20 -day EMA, a level it has consistently respected since April . This, along with positive market breadth, supports the ongoing higher -high -low structure, reflecting a well -established uptrend . A decisive close above the previous sessions high may confirm trend continuation, with a projected upside towards 58800 in coming quarter which is the implied target of the consolidation from (56098 -53483 ) . We maintain our support base at 55500 , which is 50 % retracement of (53483 -57628 ) and 50 -day EMA . Therefore, any dip from current levels would present a fresh buying opportunities .

* PSU Bank outperformed the benchmark where it closed above previous weeks high and closed the week up ~ 2 % while maintaining higher -high -low structure indicating inherent strength and trend continuity . The index broke out from an eleven -month falling trendline on 19th May and, since then, has been forming a higher - high -low structure on weekly which is intact, indicating uptrend is intact . While the Bank Nifty is trading at all -time high, whereas the PSU Bank index is still trading ~12 % below its all -time high, presenting a compelling case for a catch -up move . Meanwhile, immediate support on the downside is placed at 6 ,700 , which is recent swing low coincided with 20 -week EMA .

* Structurally, the Bank Nifty is exhibiting a phase -wise expansion, where each successive rally is establishing a new price zone of acceptance . Rather than sharp directional moves, the index is evolving through brief consolidations that act as launchpads for the next leg higher . This shift from volatility -driven moves to range - bound bases suggests growing market maturity, with demand emerging at higher levels . The shrinking amplitude of corrections reflects stronger hands absorbing supply without disrupting trend continuity .

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