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Nifty

Nifty witnessed a smart follow-through move post the bullish hammer formation, closing above the crucial 25030 level for consecutive sessions, indicating a short-term reversal. Despite the rebound, the index remains below its 5- and 20-day exponential moving averages, making 25280 an immediate hurdle. Unless this level is crossed, the index may continue to oscillate or experience a short-term mean reversion bounce. The broader trend remains corrective unless Nifty decisively breaks above 25500, with 25300 acting as interim resistance. On the downside, a break below 24930 could invite fresh selling pressure, while a breakout above 25550 would confirm a bullish trend resumption. Technical indicators offer a cautious view — the ADX is flattening, signaling weakening trend strength, and the RSI remains below 50, indicating subdued momentum. Options data suggests strong support at 25000 and resistance in the 25300–25500 zone, implying a likely sideways range until a clear breakout or breakdown occurs. Sectoral divergence continues, with defensive stocks showing resilience, while cyclicals still await confirmation of strength. A move above 25550 could validate broader participation. Given this setup, the strategy should remain stock-specific with a buy-on-dips approach, reserving aggressive long positions for either a breakout above 25550 or a confirmed bounce from the 25000 level.

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