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NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK

Indian equity benchmarks ended the week on a weak footing, with the Nifty slipping below the psychological mark of 25,000. The Sensex closed down 501.51 points at 81,757.73, while the Nifty shed 143.05 points to end at 24,968.40. Global cues remained uncertain due to rising crude oil prices amid disruptions in Iraq and unclear signals regarding the U.S. Fed’s rate stance, fueling inflationary concerns for oil-importing countries like India. On the weekly chart, Nifty has formed three consecutive bearish candles from recent highs, indicating loss of upward momentum.

Technically, the Nifty has now entered a crucial demand zone between 25,000 and 24,770, which is expected to act as immediate support. Any bullish reversal from this zone could lead to a fresh rally towards 26,000 and 26,400 levels in the coming weeks. Despite the price correction, falling volume suggests that the decline lacks aggressive selling pressure, which indicates that overall trend structure remains bullish. However, RSI at 56.53 is trending downward, reflecting short-term weakness and the need for a reversal signal before any fresh long positions are initiated.

Most sectoral indices ended in the red, led by losses in banking, energy, and FMCG sectors, while broader markets also saw profit booking with nearly 1% cut. As we head into the new week, earnings from heavyweights like Reliance, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank will be key triggers for market direction. On the index front, a decisive break below 24,900 could extend the downside towards 24,770, while any bounce-back may face resistance near the 20-day EMA zone of 25,200. Traders are advised to stay cautious and look for confirmation signals before taking directional trades.

Support Levels: 24900-24800     

Resistance Levels: 25200-25500

Overall Bias: Sideways

BANKNIFTY

The Bank Nifty index closed at 56,283, registering a 0.83% decline from the previous week's close. The weekly chart indicates rejection at higher levels, as the index failed to sustain above the crucial 56,500 mark. This selling pressure suggests a potential pause in the ongoing uptrend, pointing towards a likely sideways to bearish or consolidation phase in the near term.

This week, the Bank Nifty index formed a bearish-bodied candle with an upper wick, accompanied by consistent trading volumes. This reflects sustained selling pressure at higher levels and limited buying interest, hinting at a possible consolidation or mild corrective phase in the near term. As long as the index holds below the 57,000 mark, a "sell on rise" strategy remains advisable, with downside targets placed at 56,000 and 55,500.

On the weekly timeframe, Bank Nifty is trading above all its key moving averages—including the short-term 20-day, medium-term 50-day, and long-term 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)—indicating an overall uptrend. However, the sustained selling pressure at higher levels and the inability to hold above the crucial 57,000 mark suggest that the index is entering a consolidation phase. Key downside support is seen in the 56,000–55,500 zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 61.16 with a negative crossover, signaling a sideways to mildly bearish bias. This consolidation phase could result in either a time-wise or price-wise correction as the index awaits fresh triggers for its next directional move.

The Bank Nifty index is likely to face significant resistance in the 56,500–57,000 range. If the index continues to move higher, ICICI Bank from the private banking sector is expected to support the uptrend. Similarly, in the public sector banking space, SBIN is anticipated to show strength and contribute to any potential upside.

For the ongoing expiry, put options show the highest concentration near the 56,000 and 55,500 strikes, marking these as key support levels. Conversely, significant open interest in call options at 56,500 and 57,000 indicates potential resistance, suggesting a likely trading range of 55,500–57,000 in the upcoming sessions. Traders are advised to remain cautious, consider a sell on rise approach, and maintain strict stop-loss levels to manage risks effectively amid ongoing market volatility and potential price fluctuations.

Support: 56000-55500

Resistance: 56500-57000

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