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NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK

After a brief holiday gap, bulls made a strong comeback on Dalal Street as benchmark indices surged nearly 2% on April 11, supported by broad-based buying across sectors. The rally was fueled by a positive global cue after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China, although the 10% baseline tariffs will remain intact. At close, the Sensex gained 1,310.11 points (1.77%) to end at 75,157.26, while the Nifty jumped 429.40 points (1.92%) to settle at 22,828.55.

On the technical front, support levels are placed at 22,400 and 22,000, whereas resistance is expected around 23,200 and 23,600. The broader range remains between 21,750 to 23,850, suggesting volatile moves within this band.

The RSI is currently at 48.35 and trending upward, indicating improving strength, while Stochastic RSI has shown a positive crossover, hinting at bullish momentum in the short term.

Market volatility eased as India VIX dropped 6.17% to 20.1075, signaling a reduction in fear after a recent spike. Open Interest (OI) data shows heavy call writing at 23,000 and 23,200 levels, indicating stiff supply and potential resistance zones. On the other hand, strong put writing at 22,500 suggests a solid support base. This setup indicates that while bulls currently hold momentum, there is a high probability of intraday volatility and profit booking near resistance levels. Traders should stay cautious near upper bands and look for dips toward support for potential entries.

BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK

The Bank Nifty index ended the session on a strong note, closing at 51,002, up 1.52%, supported by positive sentiment across the broader market. On the daily chart, the index is consistently taking support near the crucial 50,000 level, which remains a key psychological and technical zone. If Bank Nifty manages to sustain above 50,000, it could potentially rally further towards 52,000 and 53,000 in the coming sessions. However, a breakdown below 50,000 may trigger profit booking and push the index downward towards 49,000.

Technically, Bank Nifty is trading above all key exponential moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200 EMA), reinforcing the bullish setup. The RSI is at 56, reflecting moderate bullish strength, while the Stochastic RSI is showing a positive crossover from the oversold region, indicating the potential for an upside continuation. This momentum setup supports a bullish bias in the near term, provided key support zones are protected.

From a derivatives perspective, put option writers are most active at 50,500 and 50,000, marking them as strong support levels, while heavy call writing is observed at 51,500 and 52,000, suggesting immediate resistance zones. This positions the expected trading range between 50,000 to 52,000 for the current expiry. With market volatility still present, India VIX cooling off gives some relief, but traders are advised to buy on dips and use strict stop-loss levels to mitigate risks.

With Bank Nifty’s outperformance and continued interest from institutions, PSU and private banks have shown leadership, especially large-cap names. Watch for stock-specific momentum in HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and SBI for short-term trades. The overall setup favors a “buy-on-dips” strategy, but close monitoring of global and domestic cues will be crucial as earnings season gains traction.

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