Betting on India: Nilesh Shah`s Bullish Call That Jim Rogers Now Echoes
Even the most accomplished investors sometimes revise their views—and when they do, it often reflects shifting fundamentals and emerging opportunities.
That seems to be the case with legendary global investor Jim Rogers, who has recently expressed renewed optimism about India’s economic trajectory. Interestingly, this change in tone now mirrors a stance that Nilesh Shah, Managing Director of Kotak Mutual Fund and a part-time member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, had held years ago.
A 2017 Letter of Conviction
Back in 2017, Shah penned an open letter addressing Jim Rogers’ then-bearish view on India. The letter, written in a respectful tone, was published publicly and aimed to highlight India’s long-term potential.
Shah laid out India’s reform momentum, macroeconomic strength, and evolving market fundamentals—arguing that investors who stayed the course could benefit significantly. He even referenced Kotak’s own mutual fund performance as an example of the kind of returns possible for long-term believers.
His letter closed with humility: “My apologies if you find this letter unwarranted… My intention is to make you aware about the correct situation of India.”
Focus on Valuation, Not Index Levels
A key theme in Shah’s message was that valuation matters more than index levels. He illustrated this with the example of HDFC Bank, where early investors paid a premium because they saw long-term value—despite lofty stock prices.
The insight: premium assets often deserve premium pricing. For long-term investors, what matters isn’t timing the entry point to perfection—but identifying quality and giving it time to grow.
"Catch the Train" Philosophy
Shah’s metaphor for equity investing is particularly memorable. He has long advised investors to “jump onto the equity train, whether it is standing or moving.” While boarding a moving train might come with risks, he argues, time in the market often heals early volatility and delivers compounding rewards.
Fast Forward to 2025: Market Performance & Sentiment Shift
As of May 2025, the Nifty50 index has posted an impressive 180% return since Shah’s letter in 2017. That performance underscores the strength of India’s long-term growth story—and the foresight behind Shah’s bullish call.
In a recent televised interview, Jim Rogers shared a notably more optimistic view of India. He cited improved policy direction and long-term opportunity as reasons to reconsider the Indian equity market. While he didn’t directly mention Shah or the earlier correspondence, the tone of his remarks now closely aligns with the view Shah had advocated years earlier.
Respectful Divergence, Eventual Alignment
This isn’t a story of right versus wrong—it’s about the evolving nature of market perspectives. Shah’s letter was never confrontational; it was a considered attempt to highlight opportunity. Rogers, too, is known for adapting his views as markets evolve.
Today, their perspectives seem to converge, offering investors a valuable reminder: the world’s most compelling opportunities often become clear only with time.
Conclusion: A Bullish Bet Vindicated
India’s markets have long rewarded those who looked beyond short-term volatility and focused on long-term fundamentals. Nilesh Shah’s early conviction in the India story has proven well-placed, and Jim Rogers’ recent commentary only reinforces the potential that still lies ahead.
For investors, the message is clear: sometimes the best trades are made not by predicting the market—but by believing in its structural strength.
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