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Nifty

The Indian markets witnessed a sharp sell-off for the second consecutive session, driven largely by escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. Despite positive global cues, Nifty opened with a gap-down and remained under pressure throughout the session, finally closing at 24,008, down 265.80 points or 1.1%. The broader sentiment remained cautious, with traders shifting to risk-off mode amid the ongoing uncertainty.

Technically, Nifty broke below its recent consolidation zone but managed to hold above the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), which currently acts as immediate support. According to the Fibonacci extension, Nifty appears to be in its 3rd wave, with a key target at 23,850 (1.618 level). If the index fails to hold this level, the next potential support lies near 23,490 (2.618 level). A decisive close below 24,000 could accelerate the downside momentum in the short term.

Momentum indicators are flashing early warning signs of weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 53.88 and is trending downward, indicating waning bullish strength. Additionally, the Stochastic RSI has shown a bearish crossover from overbought levels, hinting at a potential reversal and short-term downside risk.

On the derivatives front, market volatility cooled off slightly as India VIX fell 2.98% to 21.63, suggesting a temporary decline in fear after the recent spike. However, Open Interest (OI) data reflects heavy call writing at the 24,300 and 24,500 levels, indicating strong overhead resistance. In contrast, strong put writing at 23,800 suggests a well-defined support base. Traders should closely monitor the 23,800 24,000 range for directional confirmation and trade with a cautious, risk-managed approach in the near term.


 

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty index closed at 53,595.25, registering a 2.76% loss from the previous week's close. The weekly chart indicates rejection at higher levels; however, the index has failed to hold above the crucial 54,000 mark. Additionally, the selling pressure at higher levels suggests a potential pause in the ongoing uptrend, pointing to a sideways to bearish or consolidation phase in the near term.

This week, the Bank Nifty index formed a strong-bodied bearish candle with no upper or lower wick, supported by consistent trading volumes. This indicates rejection at higher levels and a possible pause in the current uptrend. The candlestick pattern reflects pressure among market participants and suggests a likely sideways to bearish or consolidation phase in the near term. A "sell on rise" strategy is recommended as long as the index holds below 55,000, with lower targets placed at 53,000 and 52,000.

On the weekly timeframe, Bank Nifty is trading above all its key moving averages, including the short-term 20-day, medium-term 50-day, and long-term 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). This indicates an overall upward trend, but pressure from higher levels suggests that some consolidation phase is underway, and the index is unable to hold higher levels, with downside support near the 53,000–52,000 range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 59.25, indicating a mild sideways to bearish move. However, the sideways movement suggests a phase of consolidation, potentially leading to a time-wise or price-wise correction as the index awaits fresh cues for the next directional move.

The Bank Nifty index is likely to face significant resistance in the 54,000–55,000 range. If the index continues to move higher, ICICI Bank from the private banking sector is expected to support the uptrend. Similarly, in the public sector banking space, SBI is anticipated to show strength

For the ongoing expiry, put options have the highest concentration near 53,000 and 52,000, marking these as key support levels. Conversely, call options at 54,000 and 55,000 hold significant open interest, indicating potential resistance and suggesting a trading range of 52,000–55,000 for the upcoming sessions. Traders should remain cautious, consider selling on rise, and maintain strict stop-loss levels to manage risks effectively amid ongoing market volatility and potential price fluctuations

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