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Gold

Gold prices settled 0.11% higher at Rs 141,781, recovering on short covering after earlier weakness driven by a stronger US dollar and elevated Treasury yields. Market participants remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, looking for fresh signals on the future interest-rate path. As widely expected, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting in July 2026. However, the dissent of three FOMC members, who favoured a 25-basis-point rate hike, reinforced expectations that a September rate increase remains a distinct possibility. The central bank also acknowledged that the US economy continues to expand at a solid pace despite heightened uncertainty stemming from ongoing Middle East tensions. Geopolitical risks remained elevated as oil prices surged more than 4% following US and Saudi strikes in Iraq and an intercepted Iranian missile attack on US forces. Rising energy prices have strengthened expectations that interest rates could stay higher for longer, limiting gold's upside. Investors are now focused on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, due later this week. Meanwhile, China's net gold imports through Hong Kong declined over 5% month-on-month to 50.679 tonnes in June. Physical demand in India remained subdued, with discounts widening to seven-week highs of up to $56 per ounce, while buying interest improved in China, where premiums ranged between $3 and $6 per ounce. Gold holdings in London vaults increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes by the end of June. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 23.21% to 2,892 contracts while prices advanced Rs 158. Gold finds immediate support at Rs 140,875, followed by Rs 139,970, whereas resistance is seen at Rs 142,390. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 143,000.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 139970-143000.

* Gold gained on short covering after pressured by a firm dollar ‌and elevated U.S. Treasury yields.

* Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting in July 2026.

* Commerzbank lowers year-end gold price forecast to $4,500 per troy ounce (previously: $4,800)

Silver

Silver prices settled 0.76% higher at Rs217,479, recovering on short covering after earlier losses as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lifted crude oil prices and revived inflation concerns. Market sentiment remained focused on the US Federal Reserve after it left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting in July 2026, in line with expectations. However, the dissent of three FOMC members in favour of a 25-basis-point rate hike reinforced expectations that the Fed could tighten monetary policy in September. The central bank also maintained that the US economy continues to expand at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, several Fed officials, including Beth Hammack and Lorie Logan, signalled that additional policy tightening may be necessary if inflation remains persistent, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank's commitment to restoring price stability. Geopolitical risks intensified after Iran launched ballistic missiles targeting US forces in Jordan, prompting renewed concerns over energy supply disruptions and inflation. Recent US economic data showed consumer and producer prices declined in June, largely due to lower energy costs, although import prices unexpectedly increased. ANZ expects silver to remain closely linked with gold in the near term, while forecasting improving fundamentals over the medium to long term. Silver holdings in London vaults rose 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes by the end of June. In India, silver imports plunged 87% year-on-year in May to their lowest level in more than three years after the government tightened import restrictions and increased import duties to 15% from 6% to curb precious metal imports. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 3.67% to 12,748 contracts while prices gained Rs 1,639. Silver has immediate support at Rs 214,940, followed by Rs 212,395, while resistance is placed at Rs 219,515. A sustained move above this level could open the way towards Rs 221,545.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 212395-221545.

* Silver gained on short covering after dropped due to Middle East tensions, Fed rate uncertainty

* Unusually high market uncertainty surrounds the Fed’s rate decision, with some pricing in further hikes.

* Commerzbank expects silver to reach $67 per troy ounce (previously: $80) and $80 by the end of 2027 (previously: $90)

Crude Oil

Crude Oil prices surged 6.72% to settle at Rs8,114, extending gains on strong buying interest as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raised concerns over potential supply disruptions. Market sentiment turned bullish after the United States and Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes on Iran-backed groups in Iraq following drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities. Adding to supply concerns, Iran rejected Oman's proposal for joint management of the Strait of Hormuz, keeping uncertainty over one of the world's most critical oil shipping routes elevated. Limited tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz further reinforced fears of constrained exports from major Gulf producers.Fundamental support also   from declining US crude inventories. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude stocks fell by 7.2 million barrels to 404.5 million barrels during the week ended July 24, significantly exceeding market expectations for a 1.3 million-barrel draw. Inventories at the Cushing delivery hub also declined by 771,000 barrels, while refinery utilisation increased to 97.2%, indicating robust refinery activity. Although gasoline inventories rose by 7,000 barrels and distillate stocks increased by 1.1 million barrels, lower net crude imports and stronger refinery demand provided additional support. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute also reported a 3.3 million-barrel decline in crude inventories. OPEC+ is expected to pause further production increases for three months from October after completing scheduled output hikes, although the group confirmed a quota increase of 188,000 barrels per day from August. Actual production, however, remains below pre-war levels due to continued disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 5.47% to 9,009 contracts while prices advanced Rs 511. Crude Oil finds immediate support at Rs 7,878, followed by Rs 7,643, while resistance is placed at Rs 8,281. A sustained breakout above this level could drive prices towards Rs 8,449.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7643-8449.

* Crude oil  jumped as major airstrikes resumed in the Middle East and dashed hopes ‌for an imminent end to war.

* Trump vows response to surprise Iran attack on US troops in the Middle East

* Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic remains low, shipping data shows

Natural Gas

Natural Gas prices settled 0.69% higher at Rs 262.8, recovering on short covering after recent declines despite persistent pressure from record US production, lower LNG export flows and comfortable storage levels. Financial firm LSEG reported that average dry gas output in the US Lower 48 states has reached 110.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, matching the record monthly high recorded in December 2025. While abundant supply continues to weigh on sentiment, forecasts for above-normal temperatures through mid-August are expected to keep electricity demand elevated, supporting natural gas consumption for power generation. LSEG estimates total US gas demand, including exports, will increase from 110.6 bcfd this week to 112.7 bcfd next week. Supply fundamentals remained mixed as average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants eased to 17.2 bcfd in July from 17.4 bcfd in June, mainly due to maintenance at Freeport LNG in Texas. Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 32 billion cubic feet (bcf) storage injection for the week ended July 17, slightly below market expectations of 35 bcf. Total working gas in storage increased to 3.056 trillion cubic feet, standing 0.5% below year-ago levels but still 6.4% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating comfortable supply conditions. The EIA also maintained a constructive long-term outlook, forecasting record US dry gas production of 111.2 bcfd and domestic consumption of 92.1 bcfd in 2026, while LNG exports are projected to rise to 17.4 bcfd. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 1.54% to 51,744 contracts while prices gained Rs 1.8. Natural Gas has immediate support at Rs 258.6, followed by Rs 254.3, while resistance is seen at Rs 265.6. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 268.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 254.3-268.3.

* Natural gas gained on short covering after prices dropped on record output, and ample amounts of gas in storage.

* Global gas demand to fall 0.5% this year as tighter supply raises prices, IEA says

* Sempra says Costa Azul export plant in Mexico expected to return in fourth quarter of 2026

Copper

Copper prices settled 0.12% lower at Rs1,322.8 as investors remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, while signs of easing supply tightness in China also weighed on market sentiment. The Yangshan copper premium remained steady at $112 per tonne, easing slightly from last week's $115, the highest level since November 2022, indicating softer import demand. Meanwhile, the US dollar hovered near one-month highs as markets continued to price in the possibility of a further US interest rate hike, limiting demand for industrial metals. Supply developments remained mixed across major producing regions. Available copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) increased to 101,975 tonnes after fresh material was returned to registered warehouses in Taiwan. However, stocks remain near multi-month lows following heavy cancellations earlier in July, keeping the cash premium over the three-month contract elevated. In Chile, Antofagasta resumed operations at its Los Pelambres mine after temporary disruptions caused by heavy rainfall and power outages, while maintaining its full-year production guidance. Chile also raised its average copper price forecast for 2026 to $5.90 per pound from $5.46 previously. However, production remained weak, with Codelco output declining 18.3% year-on-year, while Escondida and Collahuasi reported production falls of 17.6% and 19.3%, respectively. China's social copper inventories increased by 5,300 tonnes week-on-week to 117,200 tonnes, while refined copper imports reached a nine-month high of 281,307 tonnes in June, supported by strong domestic demand and reduced local supply. Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group reported an 18,000-tonne global refined copper surplus in May. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 3.41% to 11,382 contracts while prices declined Rs 1.55. Copper has immediate support at Rs1,317.5, followed by Rs 1,312.2, while resistance is placed at Rs1,327.3. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 1,331.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1312.2-1331.8.

* Copper fell ahead of a Federal Reserve interest rate decision and signs of easing supply tightness.

* Glencore said first-half copper production rose 15% on higher grades at key operations.

* China's net imports of refined copper fell by 13% year-on-year to 1.374 million metric tons in the first half of 2026 - WBMS

Zinc

Zinc prices settled marginally lower by 0.07% at Rs376.5 as a stronger US dollar and concerns over global demand ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision weighed on market sentiment. Despite the slight decline, losses remained limited due to tightening near-term supply conditions and continued signs of resilience in China's manufacturing sector. A zinc smelter in Central China is scheduled to undergo routine maintenance during August, with production expected to decline by 1,000-1,500 tonnes, providing additional support to prices. Meanwhile, zinc production in China increased 10% year-on-year to 641,000 tonnes in May, reflecting robust smelter operations, while Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse inventories declined 0.8% from the previous week. Supply-side developments continued to offer underlying support. Glencore's Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan remained operational at reduced capacity following an explosion, while Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru continued its gradual recovery after fire-related disruptions. In contrast, Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% year-on-year to 108,200 tonnes during the first half of the 2026/27 financial year. On the London Metal Exchange, zinc stocks remained at 103,725 tonnes, the lowest level since May, while the cash contract premium over the three-month contract widened to $73.27 per tonne, signalling tight nearby availability. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global refined zinc market surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April. Additionally, the People's Bank of China injected CNY 806.5 billion into the financial system to maintain ample liquidity at month-end.Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 4.37% to 2,529 contracts while prices slipped by Rs 0.25. Zinc has immediate support at Rs 375.5, followed by Rs 374.3, while resistance is seen at Rs 377.7. A sustained move above this level could open the way towards Rs 378.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 374.3-378.7.

* Zinc dropped contending with demand worries and a strong dollar.

* China's net imports of refined zinc collapsed by 79% year-on-year to just 38,000 tons in January to June – WBMS

* The cash LME zinc contract was trading at $73.27 a metric ton premium over three-month forward, widening from just under $50.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled 1.05% higher at Rs 338.25, supported by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Gulf region while sharply lifting crude oil prices. Market sentiment also remained firm due to tight exchange inventories, with available aluminium stocks on the London Metal Exchange (LME) falling to a 16-month low of 245,350 tonnes, while total LME warehouse inventories declined to 269,300 tonnes, the lowest level recorded this century. Additional support came after the National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits in China's aluminium smelting industry surged 117.1% year-on-year during the first half of 2026, reflecting improved industry fundamentals. Supply concerns continued to underpin prices despite some easing factors. Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes following cyclone-related disruptions and operational issues at its Pinjarra refinery in Australia. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium production declined 1.5% year-on-year to 5.98 million tonnes in June, with Gulf production falling by nearly one-third. Japanese port inventories also declined 7.8% month-on-month to 220,300 tonnes, indicating tighter regional availability. However, gains were capped by the restart of Emirates Global Aluminium's Al Taweelah alumina refinery and seasonal weakness in downstream demand. China continued to expand supply, with primary aluminium production rising 4.7% year-on-year to 3.98 million tonnes in June, while unwrought aluminium and product exports reached a record 711,000 tonnes during the month, up 12.5% from May. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2.21% to 3,945 contracts while prices advanced Rs 3.5. Aluminium has immediate support at Rs 335.8, followed by Rs 333.2, while resistance is placed at Rs 339.9. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 341.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 333.2-341.4.

* Aluminium rose as tensions in the Middle East escalated, inflating worries about metal supplies from the Gulf region.

* Aluminium market is betting that increased exports from China and Indonesia can offset the loss of production in the Gulf region.

* Available LME aluminium stocks are at a 16-month low of 245,350 tons, and are dominated by Russian-made metal.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled 0.6% lower at Rs20,234 as traders booked profits following the recent rally, although the broader market continued to be supported by tight supplies and concerns over the ongoing Kharif crop. Prices had strengthened earlier due to deficient rainfall, declining carry-forward stocks and fears that El Niño could adversely affect the newly sown crop. Market participants noted that carry-forward stocks have declined significantly over the past three to four years, while prolonged dry conditions during the early crop development stage could reduce yields and keep supplies tight. However, improved monsoon rainfall across major producing regions over the past week has eased immediate concerns, resulting in a softer market tone. Fundamental factors remained mixed as turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 16.05% year-on-year in 2026, remaining well above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares. Good rainfall is expected to accelerate sowing activities, while attractive prices near multi-year highs are encouraging farmers to expand cultivation during the current season. Despite expectations of higher acreage, overall supplies remain structurally tight due to lower production and reduced carry-forward stocks, estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season. Export demand also remained supportive. India's turmeric exports declined marginally by 1% year-on-year to 18,960 tonnes in May 2026, while cumulative exports during April-May remained broadly stable at 33,999 tonnes. Strong shipments to China, Oman, Yemen and Italy helped offset weaker demand from other destinations, reflecting continued healthy overseas buying. In the Nizamabad spot market, turmeric prices declined 0.31%   Rs 19,926.45.Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.31% to 29,325 contracts while prices declined Rs 122. Turmeric has immediate support at Rs 20,022, followed by Rs 19,810, while resistance is placed at Rs 20,532. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 20,830.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19810-20830.

* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid fears of El Nino impact the crop that is currently being sown.

* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the next crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 19926.45 Rupees dropped by -0.31 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled 0.45% higher at Rs21,095, supported by tightening supplies of premium-quality bold seeds despite overall physical crop availability remaining adequate. Export-grade, high-purity jeera has become increasingly scarce as arrivals at major trading centres such as Unjha in Gujarat and key markets in Rajasthan continue to decline. Supply of superior-quality produce has tightened faster than anticipated, providing support to market prices. However, gains remained limited as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to disrupt logistics and weaken demand from traditional export destinations. Buying interest from China also remained sporadic and price-sensitive, while expectations of improved production in competing origins such as Turkey and Syria weighed on Indian export premiums. Market sentiment remained mixed as farmers continued to liquidate stocks to generate cash for Kharif sowing, increasing near-term market supplies. Faster harvesting and drying due to favourable weather in north-west India also accelerated arrivals, while rising NCDEX warehouse stocks reduced the urgency for spot purchases. Domestic processors and stockists maintained hand-to-mouth buying instead of aggressive inventory building. However, export demand for residue-compliant and high-specification lots from Europe and North America remained supportive. Crop estimates suggest India's jeera production may decline to around 90-92 lakh bags this season from 1.10 crore bags last year due to lower sowing. China's production is also expected to fall to 70,000-80,000 tonnes because of adverse weather. India's jeera exports declined 26% year-on-year to 17,177 tonnes in May, while April-May exports fell 22% to 33,431 tonnes, although shipments to Singapore, Mexico, Yemen and Poland recorded strong growth. In the Unjha spot market, jeera prices gained 0.12% to Rs 20,840.25. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.37% to 8,862 contracts while prices advanced Rs 95. Jeera has immediate support at Rs 20,910, followed by Rs 20,700, while resistance is seen at Rs 21,230. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 21,340.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20700-21340.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* India's jeera exports declined sharply by 26% YoY to 17,177 tonnes in May-2026, compared with 23,206 tonnes in May-2025.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20840.25 Rupees gained by 0.12 percent.