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Market Update

Nifty : 24,924.70 +916.70 (+3.82%)

Sensex : 82,429.90 +2975.43 (+3.74%)

* Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty posted their biggest single-day gains in four years, with the Sensex soaring nearly 3,000 points and the Nifty surpassing the 24,900 mark, registering gains of over 3.5%. The surge was largely fueled by an unexpected ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan after four days of escalating military tensions. Additional support came from favorable global developments, including easing U.S.-China trade tensions and promising progress in ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

* Positive domestic cues also played a role, as the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasted an early monsoon and traders covered short positions, further propelling the market upward. Globally, U.S. index futures jumped 4%, while Asian and European markets gained between 1–3% on growing hopes of a trade resolution between the U.S. and China. The two nations announced "substantial progress" in talks and a 90-day pause on certain tariffs, boosting investor confidence worldwide. As part of the deal, the U.S. will slash tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China will cut tariffs on American goods from 125% to 10%.

* The Sensex ended the day up 2,975 points or 3.7%, closing at 82,429, while the Nifty gained 916 points to settle at 24,924—just under the key 25,000 level. Sector-wise, IT, metal, real estate, hotel, tourism, and airline stocks led the rally. The Nifty IT Index surged nearly 7%, its strongest performance since 2020, driven by expectations of improved demand. The Nifty Metal Index rose 6% on optimism over Chinese demand and a spike in base metal prices, which hit a three-month high on the London Metal Exchange. The Nifty Realty Index also jumped 6%, supported by bargain hunting and strong quarterly earnings. Hotel, tourism, and airline stocks witnessed fresh buying on account of reduce geo-political tension between India and Pakistan.

Technical Outlook:

* Nifty opened with a massive gap up of over 400 points above the 24400 zone, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and signs of border peace. From the opening bell, the index displayed strong upward momentum, rallying over 500 points intraday, with bulls firmly in control throughout the session. Every minor dip was aggressively bought, highlighting strong buying interest and market confidence.

* The index not only sustained the gap-up but also surged past its previous swing high of 24857 (marked on 2nd December 2024), triggering a rounding bottom pattern on the weekly chart. Nifty comfortably crossed multiple short-term resistance levels and by the end of the session, it had logged an impressive gain of over 900 points.

* It has formed a big bullish candle on daily frame and negated the sequence of lower lows. Now it has to hold above 24750 zones for an up move towards 25200 then 25500 zones while supports are shifting higher at 24750 then 24550 zones.

Derivative Outlook:

* Nifty future closed positive with significant gains of 4.10% at 25051 levels. Positive setup seen in Hindustan Copper, Birla Soft, SJVN, SAIL, Coforge, OFSS, Escorts, Persistent System, NBCC, INFY, Adani Enterprise, BHEL and Naukri while weakness in IndusInd Bank, Sun Pharma, HAL, Divis lab, Solar Industries, Glenmark, Biocon and Chambal Fertilizer.

* On option front, Maximum Call OI is at 25500 then 25000 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 24000 then 24500 strike. Call writing is seen at 25500 then 25700 strike while Put writing is seen at 24500 then 24600 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 24500 to 25500 zones while an immediate range between 24700 to 25200 levels.

Global Market Update

* European Market - European stocks rose on Monday as the US is set to cut tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from 145% for 90 days. UK, Germany and France Index gained 1% each.

* Asian Market - Stocks in Asia rose on optimism that the US and China will reach a deal to lower tariffs after the two sides touted “substantial progress” on their trade discussions. Both China and Hong Kong Index rose 1% and 3% respectively.

* US Data - Federal Budget Statement.

* Commodity - Oil prices rise on market optimism as the U.S. and China agree to suspend most mutual tariffs pending further talks. Brent crude is up 2.4% at $65.46 a barrel.

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