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Market Update

Nifty : 25,244.75 +200.40 (+0.80%)

Sensex : 82,755.51 +700.40 (+0.85%)

* Equity benchmark Nifty closed at an 8-month high, surpassing the 25,200 mark, while the Sensex rallied over 700 points. The uptrend was driven by easing geopolitical tensions following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, strong global market cues, and rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in the July policy meeting. A sharp decline in crude oil prices—dropping nearly 20% from $80/bbl to $68/bbl—along with the rate cut optimism pushed U.S. markets to a 4-month high, boosting overall sentiment.

* On the domestic front, positive factors such as a 14-month high in June PMI data, the forecast of a good monsoon, and declining oil prices contributed to market gains. Nifty rose 200 points or 0.8% to close at 25,244, while the Sensex climbed 700 points or 0.8% to end at 82,755.

* IT stocks led the rally, with the Nifty IT Index gaining nearly 2%, supported by heavyweights Infosys, TCS, Tech Mahindra, and Wipro. The broader market also participated, with the Nifty Smallcap Index rising 1.6%. The Nifty Auto Index was up 1% after reports that MG Motor plans to raise prices by up to 1.5%, lifting stocks like M&M, Maruti, MRF, and Hyundai Motor by 1–3%. Meanwhile, reduced geopolitical risk triggered some profit-taking in defense stocks, pulling the Nifty Defense Index down by 2%.

* The Nifty 500 advance-decline ratio stood at 2:1, reflecting broad-based buying. Globally, both Asian and European markets posted moderate gains despite hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell to the U.S. Congress. The U.S. 10-year bond yield and the Dollar Index both slipped to near one-month lows, further supporting bullish sentiment.

Technical Outlook:

* Nifty index opened gap up by more than 100 points on account of easing geopolitical tensions. The index was afloat above 25150 zones for most part of the day and gradually escalated northwards. It crossed 25250 levels and closed with gains of around 200 points.

* It formed a bullish candle on daily frame and has been forming higher lows from the last four sessions. Now it has to hold above 25150, for an up move towards 25350 and 25500 zones while supports can be seen at 25100 then 24900 zones.

Derivative Outlook:

* Nifty future closed positive with gains of 0.71% at 25250 levels. Positive setup seen in MCX, Birlasoft, Max health, Titan, Delhivery, Mphasis, TVS motor, LTIM, GLenmark and M&M while weakness in Dixon, Sonacoms, Vedanta, Petronet, Chambal fertilizer, Angelone, Mazagon dock, BDL, PB Fintech, OIL India and M&M Finance.

* On option front, Maximum Call OI is at 25300 then 25500 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 25200 then 25000 strike. Call writing is seen at 25250 then 25300 strike while Put writing is seen at 25200 then 25150 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 24700 to 25700 zones while an immediate range between 25000 to 25400 levels.

Global Market Update

* European Market - Update European stocks climbed in tandem with Asian markets, buoyed by strong momentum from the US session following reignited hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the truce in the Middle East. Both Germany and France Index are trading flat to positive.

* Asian Market - Asian shares have logged modest gains after U.S. stocks climbed to near their all-time high as investors considered comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to Congress. Hong Kong and China Index gained 1% each while marginally rose Japan and Australia Index.

* US Data - New Home sales and Mortgage Application.

* Commodity - Crude oil prices rose 1% to above $68/bbl on Wednesday amid uncertainty about the stability of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

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