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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

* Gold is expected to consolidate in the band of $2880 and $2950 in the near term. Increasing safe haven demand amid tariff concerns would provide support to bullions. Further, forecast of moderation in US GDP numbers would increase the chances of 2 rate cuts by the Fed. Moreover, increasing ETF holdings and central bank buying would support prices to trade above $2880 per ounce. Meanwhile, focus will remain on the comments from Fed members.

* Gold price is likely to hold the key support of 20 day EMA at $2880 and move towards $2950. A higher call base at 2950 strike would act as key hurdle. MCX Gold April is expected to hold the support Rs.85,000 and move towards Rs.86,400 level. Only below Rs.85,000 it would turn weaker.

* Spot Silver, is expected to face the hurdle of 20 day EMA at $32.00 and move lower towards $31.00. MCX Silver May is expected to face resistance near Rs.97,200 and move lower towards Rs.95,200.

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to remain volatile amid tariff threats. Tariffs on all imports of steel and Aluminium would weigh on the risk sentiments. Further, ample stocks in China would also reduce supply concerns. Negative treatment charges reflects larger extent of overcapacity in refined production. Meanwhile, supply disruption in Chile due to power cut has forced some major units to stop operation, which could limit the its downside. MCX Copper March is expected to hold the support at Rs.858 and move towards Rs.872.

* MCX Aluminum March is expected to face the hurdle near Rs.262 level and move lower towards Rs.258 level. Weaker than expected economic numbers from US and a strong dollar would weigh on prices.

* MCX Zinc March is likely to slip towards Rs.265, as long as it stays under Rs.271.

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is likely to face the hurdle near $70 and move lower towards $68 amid easing geopolitical risk premiums. Increasing bets of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine would improve oil supplies. On the economic front, weaker than expected economic numbers from US and China would also weigh on oil price. Meanwhile, investor will eye on the fresh economic numbers from US which would bring more clarity.

* On the data front, addition of OI has been observed in ATM and OTM call strike, which suggests stiff resistance near $70. On the downside $68 would act as immediate support. A move below $68 would weaken it further towards $66. MCX Crude oil March is likely to face stiff resistance near Rs.6100 and move lower towards Rs.5800.

* MCX Natural gas March is expected to move lower towards Rs.340, as long as it trades under Rs.358. Forecast of warmer US weather would reduce heating demand.

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