MCX Natural gas September is expected to find support near Rs 270 level and rise towards Rs 280 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is expected to face hurdle near $4450 per ounce and move lower towards $4300 as inflation concerns and interest rate hike expectations mount. Brent crude’s move towards the $100 per barrel threshold has fueled bets on stricter monetary tightening. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, expectations for a September rate hike now stand at 60%. Meanwhile, steady inflows into the gold backed ETF’s and persistent central bank buying would provide strong support to bullion prices. Meanwhile, investors will eye on US inflation data and monetary policy outcome from ECB for more clarity.
• MCX Gold October is expected to slip towards Rs151,000 as long as it trades under Rs155,000 level.
• MCX Silver December is expected to move in a broader range of Rs 236,000 to Rs 243,000. Only a move above Rs 243,000, it would turn bullish towards Rs247,000
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to hold its gains and trade higher on persistent supply concerns and strong demand from the US. Furthermore, lower warehouse inventories in Shanghai and the London Metal Exchange would provide support to prices. Demand in China is expected to pick up as the market enters a traditional peak season for manufacturing. Meanwhile, renewed geopolitical tension in the Middle east and expectation of tighter monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve would limit its upside.
• MCX Copper September is expected to rise towards Rs1415 as long as it stays above Rs 1400 level. Only a move above Rs1415 level, it will rise towards Rs 1422.
• MCX Aluminum September is expected to hold support near Rs 348 level and rise towards Rs 356-Rs 360. MCX Zinc September is likely to hold support near Rs 414 level and move higher towards Rs 422 level.
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX crude futures are expected to trade higher amid fears of more supply disruptions in the Middle East. Recent attacks by Houthi militants is likely to curb oil production from Saudi Arabia. Further, drop in output from OPEC by nearly 1 million barrel per day in August due to renewed tension would keep prices elevated. Oil prices will remain volatile following reports of explosions on Iran’s Kharg Island, a vital Middle Eastern export hub. Ultimately, these recent attacks threaten to restrict oil flows from the Gulf region, providing strong support for prices.
• NYMEX crude oil is expected to rise towards $96 per barrel as long as it holds above $92 mark. A move above $96 levels would push prices towards $98.50. MCX Crude oil September is expected to rise towards Rs 9200 as long as it holds above Rs 8600 level.
• MCX Natural gas September is expected to find support near Rs 270 level and rise towards Rs 280 level.
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