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Gold

Gold settled down 0.16% at Rs152,579 as traders increased bets on a possible U.S. interest-rate hike following stronger August job growth and persistent inflationary risks from renewed U.S.-Iran tensions. The U.S. unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, while markets are pricing a 60% probability of a rate hike at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, according to CME FedWatch. Attention now shifts to the U.S. producer price index due Thursday and consumer price index data scheduled for Friday, which could influence monetary-policy expectations and near-term gold direction. Higher interest rates generally weigh on non-yielding gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Geopolitical risks remain supportive, with Iran threatening economic warfare against the United States and reporting an advanced missile launch toward U.S. warships, increasing concerns over further escalation and oil-driven inflation. Meanwhile, China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 22 consecutive months, raising holdings to 76.73 million fine troy ounces from 76.08 million in July. The value of China’s gold reserves climbed to $350.08 billion from $306.35 billion. Physical demand in India improved as lower prices encouraged buying, with discounts narrowing sharply to $54 an ounce from $135 last week, while Chinese bullion traded at premiums of $3.5-$9. London vault holdings rose 0.74% month-on-month to 9,534 tonnes at end-July, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 1.76% to 10,406 while prices fell Rs239. Gold is currently finding support at Rs151,945, and a break below this level could extend the decline toward Rs151,310. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs153,670, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery toward Rs154,760.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 151310-154760.

* Gold gains as the U.S. dollar slipped, with investors focused on upcoming inflation data.

* The U.S. producer price index data is due on Thursday and the consumer price index report is scheduled for Friday.

* U.S. job growth accelerated sharply in August, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, suggesting an improvement in the labour market.

Silver

Silver settled 0.17% higher at Rs239,427 as the dollar edged lower and investors positioned ahead of key U.S. inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. Markets are now pricing around a 60% probability of a U.S. rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting, up from 50% last week, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are also expected to raise rates this month. Renewed U.S.-Iran fighting has pushed oil prices higher, increasing inflationary concerns and keeping monetary-policy expectations in focus. UBS expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points in both September and December, citing stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, hawkish communication, supply bottlenecks and rising inflation risks. Despite weaker demand expectations, silver continues to receive structural support from investment, hedging and central-bank-related precious-metals demand. London silver vault holdings increased 0.5% month-on-month to 28,213 tonnes at end-July, valued at $52.7 billion and equivalent to approximately 940,423 silver bars. The global silver market is expected to remain in structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year, with the deficit forecast to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Total demand is projected to decline 2%, while industrial fabrication may fall 3% to a four-year low. However, coin and bar demand is forecast to rise 18%, providing an important offset. Global supply is expected to decline 2%, while 762 million troy ounces have been drawn from stocks since 2021, highlighting potential liquidity risks. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 0.8% to 12,322 while prices gained Rs411. Silver has support at Rs237,365, and a break below this level could lead to Rs235,300. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs241,610, while a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs243,790.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 235300-243790.

* Silver gained as dollar edgled lower and investors hunkered down for key inflation data this week.

* Investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East as renewed fighting between the US and Iran pushed oil prices higher.

* UBS forecasts two US Fed rate hikes in 2026 after strong jobs report

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 0.30% lower at Rs8,734 as profit booking emerged after the recent rally, although heightened geopolitical tensions continued to underpin prices. Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi energy facilities, while Tehran threatened the United States with “economic warfare” and reported firing an advanced missile at U.S. warships, raising concerns over further escalation and disruption to regional oil supplies. U.S. forces also struck three Iranian oil tankers, including one near Kharg Island, Iran’s key oil export hub, while shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed after Iran warned of retaliation against further U.S. attacks. Supply disruption concerns prompted Goldman Sachs to raise its Brent and WTI forecasts by $5 per barrel, now expecting Brent at $85 and WTI at $80 for December 2026, while 2027 forecasts stand at $80 and $75, respectively. HSBC also lifted its 2026 Brent forecast to $90 from $80, including a $95 estimate for the fourth quarter, and raised its 2027 forecast to $85 from $65. U.S. crude inventories declined 4.45 million barrels in the final week of August, the first decline in five weeks and significantly larger than the expected 1.1 million-barrel draw. Cushing stocks increased 0.08 million barrels, refinery crude runs rose 0.103 million barrels per day, while gasoline inventories declined 1.173 million barrels. Distillate stocks increased 0.796 million barrels, marking their first rise in five weeks. OPEC reduced its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, marking its fourth consecutive downward revision, while raising its 2027 demand-growth outlook. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 7.75% to 16,631 while prices fell Rs26. Crude oil has support at Rs8,637, and a break below this level could extend the decline toward Rs8,540. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs8,895, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs9,056.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8540-9056.

* Crude oil dropped on profit booking after prices rose as Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi energy facilities

* Goldman raises December 2026 Brent view to $85, WTI outlook to $80

* Hormuz traffic slows after Iran threatens retaliation for US attacks

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 2.45% lower at Rs274.30 as record U.S. production, elevated storage levels and expectations of comfortable winter supplies weighed on prices. The premium of November futures over October declined to a record low of around $0.11 per MMBtu, indicating limited concern over supply adequacy during the upcoming winter. Average U.S. Lower 48 gas output increased to 113.7 Bcf per day in September from the monthly record of 112.2 Bcf per day in August, while mild spring weather and strong production have kept inventories above the five-year average since March. Average Lower 48 demand, including exports, is expected to decline from 111.9 Bcf per day this week to 109.1 Bcf per day next week. Gas flows to major U.S. LNG export facilities increased to 18.3 Bcf per day in September from 17.2 Bcf per day in August, although they remained below the April record of 18.8 Bcf per day. U.S. working gas inventories increased by 30 Bcf in the week ended August 28 to 3,214 Bcf, while stocks were 50 Bcf lower year-on-year but remained 160 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,054 Bcf. The EIA expects U.S. dry gas production to rise from 107.6 Bcf per day in 2025 to 111.2 Bcf per day in 2026 and 116.0 Bcf per day in 2027. Domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 Bcf per day in 2026 and 94.8 Bcf per day in 2027, while LNG exports are forecast to reach 17.4 Bcf per day in 2026 and 18.6 Bcf per day in 2027. Germany also expects storage levels of 60%-70% at the start of winter, together with import options, to meet expected demand without state intervention. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising sharply by 56.86% to 53,768 while prices declined Rs6.90. Natural gas has support at Rs269.30, and a break below this level could extend the decline toward Rs264.30. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs282.60, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs290.90.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 264.3-290.9.

* Natural gas eased on record output and ample amounts of gas in storage.

* Storage surplus likely narrowed to 4.3% above normal

* November premium over October drops to record low around 11 cents per mmBtu

Copper

Copper settled 1.87% higher at Rs1,412.60 as the market continued to focus on tightening supply outside the United States and strong metal flows into U.S. warehouses. COMEX copper inventories climbed to a record 766,795 short tons, equivalent to 695,624 metric tons, highlighting significant stock accumulation in the U.S. In contrast, LME-registered warehouse stocks faced heavy warrant cancellations, with more than 51% of warrants cancelled, while SHFE-monitored inventories stood near 63,000 tons, down 85% from the mid-March peak and at their lowest level since January 2024. The persistent LME cash-to-three-month backwardation also indicated tight near-term availability. China’s unwrought copper and copper product imports fell to 382,000 tons in August from 425,000 tons in July, while January-August imports declined 6.7% year-on-year to 3.30 million tons. Copper concentrate imports also slipped to 19.49 million tons during the first eight months from 20.06 million tons a year earlier. Supply concerns were further reinforced by Chilean copper production, which dropped 9.4% year-on-year in July to 403,424 tons due to severe storms and unfavorable weather conditions in northern mining regions. The global refined copper market recorded a 60,000-ton deficit in June compared with a 15,000-ton surplus in May, although the first-half market remained in a 131,000-ton surplus versus 114,000 tons a year earlier. June refined copper output stood at 2.37 million tons against consumption of 2.43 million tons. China’s July copper imports also declined 11.5% year-on-year, while January-July imports fell 6.2% to 2.92 million tons and copper ore and concentrate imports declined 1.8% to 16.99 million tons. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 5.46% to 11,478 while prices gained Rs25.90. Copper has support at Rs1,395.80, and a break below could test Rs1,379.00, while resistance is placed at Rs1,422.40; a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs1,432.20.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1379-1432.2.

* Copper gained as the market continued to focus on flows of the metal into the United States amid tightened supply elsewhere.

* China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products fell to 382,000 tons in August from 425,000 tons in July.

* Copper net longs dropped by 3,445 contracts to 73,000 – CFTC

Zinc

Zinc settled 1.14% higher at Rs424.65, supported by tight supplies and declining inventories on the London Metal Exchange, although gains were capped by renewed Middle East hostilities, which pushed oil prices higher and revived inflation concerns. Zinc inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 3.3% from the previous Friday, reinforcing the supportive supply backdrop. However, the three-month zinc backwardation narrowed to $85 from more than $200 in late August after 9,975 tonnes were delivered into LME warehouses, indicating some easing in near-term supply tightness. Global mine supply remains constrained, with major producers reporting weaker output. Glencore’s own-sourced zinc production fell 21% year-on-year to 365,600 tonnes in the first half of 2026, down 99,600 tonnes, although it maintained its full-year guidance of 700,000-740,000 tonnes. Boliden’s zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes, while MMG produced 106,000 tonnes in the first half, representing 48% of its full-year guidance of 215,000-235,000 tonnes. Nexa reported zinc production of 79.3 thousand tonnes in the second quarter, up 8% year-on-year, supported by higher ore grades, while Minmetals Resources produced 105,800 tonnes and retained its full-year guidance of 215,000-235,000 tonnes. The global refined zinc market moved into a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, although the first-half market still recorded a 120,000-tonne surplus compared with 74,000 tonnes in the same period of 2025. Elevated prices are nevertheless weakening demand and discouraging buyers in China, the world’s largest consumer. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 0.61% to 2,619 while prices gained Rs4.80. Zinc has support at Rs421.80, and a break below this level could lead to Rs418.90. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs426.30, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs427.90.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 418.9-427.9.

* Zinc prices rose supported by tight supplies and low LME stocks.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 3.3% from last Friday

* Glencore reported own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes for H1 2026, down 99,600 tonnes, or 21%, year on year.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.94% higher at Rs352.75, supported by continued supply tightness and declining inventories, while renewed US-Iran hostilities increased uncertainty over the potential return of aluminium supplies from the Persian Gulf. LME inventories remained near a 36-year low, while SHFE stocks declined 3% week-on-week, highlighting tight physical market conditions. Supply concerns were further reinforced by a sharp decline in Middle East production, with Gulf primary aluminium output falling 44% year-on-year to 293,000 tonnes in July from 523,000 tonnes, while daily production dropped more than 10% month-on-month to 9,800 tonnes, well below the pre-war baseline of 17,800 tonnes. Global primary aluminium output declined 1.7% year-on-year to 6.16 million tonnes in July, although higher Chinese production partly offset the Gulf shortfall, with China output rising 2.7% to 3.866 million tonnes. Japan’s aluminium inventories at three major ports declined 8.8% month-on-month to 201,000 tonnes at end-July. China’s aluminium exports reached 626,000 tonnes in August, down from 643,000 tonnes in July, but January-August exports increased 16.7% year-on-year to 4.67 million tonnes. Alunorte in Brazil temporarily operated at 50% capacity in August before returning to full production, while Alcoa cut its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions in Western Australia. EGA expects Al Taweelah to return to previous output levels in early 2027, limiting the upside from supply disruptions. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.47% to 4,269 while prices gained Rs3.30. Aluminium has support at Rs350.60, and a break below this level could lead to Rs348.30. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs354.70, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs356.50.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 348.3-356.5.

* Aluminium rose amid continued supply tightness and declining inventories.

* LME inventories remained near a 36-year low, while SHFE inventories fell 3% from the previous week.

* China Aug aluminium exports fall to 626,000 tonnes, customs data shows

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 1.13% lower at Rs20,302 as improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka eased concerns over dry weather and potential crop damage. Reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have improved, ensuring better water availability during the vegetative phase, while rainfall also allowed re-sowing to be completed in North Karnataka, improving crop prospects. However, downside remains limited by structurally tight supplies, declining carry-forward stocks and concerns over the potential El Nino impact on the newly sown crop. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, down sharply from more than 20 lakh bags last season, reducing the availability buffer. Lower-than-expected expansion in sowing across key producing regions has also increased concerns over overall production for the upcoming harvest. Continued dry conditions during early crop development could still adversely affect yields, keeping prices supported despite recent weather improvement. On the demand side, stricter European Union Maximum Residue Limits regulations have resulted in rejection of non-IPM compliant lots and discounts for commercial-grade turmeric, while growing demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. Farmers have increased selling during the peak harvest window, adding near-term pressure, while stockists remain active but cautious. India’s turmeric exports rose 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026 from 13,787 tonnes, while April-June exports increased 8% to 51,987 tonnes. China’s cumulative imports surged 2,710% to 2,108 tonnes, while Oman shipments rose 469% to 2,342 tonnes. Strong growth was also recorded in Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay, reflecting broad-based export demand. In Nizamabad, spot turmeric ended at Rs20,336.40, up 1.44%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 0.63% to 36,160 while prices fell Rs232. Turmeric has support at Rs20,010, and a break below this level could test Rs19,716. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs20,622, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs20,940.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19716-20940.

* Turmeric dropped as revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana, and North Karnataka eased dry-weather fears.

* Tighter European Union regulations on Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) led to rejections of non-IPM compliant lots, discounting commercial-grade turmeric.

* Filling up of key reservoirs in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh ensured reliable water supply for the vegetative phase, dampening crop failure speculation.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20336.4 Rupees gained by 1.44 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 1.26% lower at Rs21,100 as farmers aggressively liquidated stocks to generate cash flow for the upcoming season, while favorable weather in North-West India allowed harvesting and drying to progress faster, accelerating market arrivals. Rising NCDEX warehouse stocks have reduced the urgency for spot procurement, while large industrial spice grinders are avoiding bulk purchases and waiting for lower levels. However, downside remains limited by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, as export-grade, high-purity supplies are declining faster than overall physical availability. Daily arrivals at major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started tapering, while blight outbreaks in key Gujarat pockets have affected crop quality and harvestable volumes. European and North American buyers have returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, although Middle East geopolitical instability continues to affect logistics and demand from traditional buyers. Domestic processors and stockists remain cautious, preferring hand-to-mouth purchases rather than aggressive forward coverage. Current estimates indicate Indian jeera production at 90-92 lakh bags, sharply below 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Global supply remains relevant, with China production estimated at 70,000-80,000 tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes and 10,000-12,000 tonnes, respectively. India’s jeera exports declined 34% year-on-year to 10,713 tonnes in June 2026, while April-June exports fell 25% to 44,144 tonnes. However, cumulative exports to Singapore, Oman and Argentina increased sharply. In Unjha, spot jeera ended at Rs21,237.35, down 0.67%. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest falling 15.81% to 4,794 while prices declined Rs270. Jeera has support at Rs20,970, and a break below could test Rs20,820, while resistance is placed at Rs21,340; a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs21,560.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20820-21560.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the upcoming season.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected.

* Large industrial spice grinders are staying away from bulk purchases, waiting for the market to bottom out.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21237.35 Rupees dropped by -0.67 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views