MCX Natural gas October is expected to hold above Rs 294 and rise towards Rs 320 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot gold is expected to fall towards $4250 per ounce amid strong dollar and higher global treasury yields. Better than expected US economic numbers and rise in crude oil prices has strengthened the Fed rate hike bets. As per the CME Fed-watch tool October rate hike probability has reached at 69% from 48% a week ago. Additionally, hawkish comments from the Fed members would likely to fuel rate hike prospects and weigh on bullion prices. Meanwhile, strong central bank buying and demand from China would provide support to bullion prices.
• MCX Gold October is expected to slip towards Rs150,000 as long as it trades below Rs153,600 level. A move below Rs150,000 it would slip towards Rs149,000.
• MCX Silver December is expected to slip towards Rs232,000-Rs233,000 levels as long as it trades below Rs239,000.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade lower due to strengthening US dollar and growing expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Additionally, a delayed US tariff decision and an upcoming holiday in China are likely to cap any upward price momentum. Conversely, persistent supply constraints and scheduled maintenance will limit any significant increase in metal availability. Reflecting these tight market conditions, the Yangshan premium for imported copper remains elevated near $120 a ton. Meanwhile, investor focus will remain on US-China trade discussions and ongoing developments regarding USIran relations.
• MCX Copper September is expected to slip towards Rs1390 level as long as it trades below Rs 1415.
• MCX Aluminum September is expected to find support near Rs344 level and rise towards Rs 352. MCX Zinc September is likely to slip towards Rs 424 as long as it trades under Rs438 levels.
Energy Outlook
• Crude oil prices are projected to remain volatile amid heightened uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations. Iran's firm stance on developing nuclear technology for economic purposes has dimmed hopes of a peace deal. Further complicating matters, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran would not guarantee freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz while US sanctions and blockades remain in effect. Meanwhile, expectations of increased oil flows from Saudi Arabia are expected to cap any major upside in prices.
• NYMEX crude oil in November future is expected to rise towards $95 as long as it holds above $88 mark. MCX Crude oil October is expected to hold above Rs 8400 and rise towards Rs 9000 level.
• MCX Natural gas October is expected to hold above Rs 294 and rise towards Rs 320 level. Forecasts for hot US autumn weather would support prices
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