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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot Gold is expected to find support near $4280 and rise towards $4380 level after softer U.S PPI and jobs data relieved near term pressure on US Federal Reserve to hike interest rates. Further, investors are pricing in about a 35% chance of a rate hike in September, compared to 57% in previous week. Additionally, prices will find support on soft dollar and safe-haven buying. Gold backed U.S ETFs saw 3 billion of inflows in July, snapping two straight months of outflows.

• MCX Gold October is expected to find support near Rs 151,000 and rise towards Rs 154,500 level.

• MCX Silver September is expected to move in a wide range between Rs 230,000 and Rs 237,000 level. Only a move below Rs 230,000, it would dip towards Rs 228,000 level

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to face pressure and trade lower on weak demand from China. Further, Yangshan premium, which reflects the premium paid above the benchmark LME copper price for refined copper imported into China, declined to $96 per ton after reaching $115 a ton last month. Meanwhile, concerns over tightening supply continued to underpin prices amid expectations for constrained global mines output. Additionally, prices will find support from soft dollar.

• MCX Copper August is expected to dip towards Rs 1365 level as long as it trades below Rs 1380 level. Only a break below Rs 1365 level, it will dip towards Rs 1360 level.

• MCX Aluminum August is expected to face resistance near Rs 350 level and dip towards RS 343. MCX Zinc August is likely to face resistance near Rs 400 level and dip towards Rs 390- Rs 392 level.

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX crude oil expected to face resistance near $83 level and dip towards $78 as investors assess prospects for weaker global demand this year amid supply disruptions. Further, no overnight reports of new military attacks by US or Iran in middle east has eased supply concerns. Additionally, U.S crude oil inventories rose by 17.4 million barrels last week. This was the biggest weekly move in inventories since January 2023. Meanwhile, prices will find cushion on lack of any agreement between U.S and Iran on re-opening the Strait of Hormuz.

• On the data front, a strong put base at $77.50 strike would likely to act as key support for price. On the upside, higher call base at $85 would act as an immediate hurdle. MCX Crude oil September is expected to face resistance near Rs 8000 and dip towards Rs 7600 level.

• MCX Natural gas August is expected to face resistance near Rs 266 level and dip towards Rs 254 level.

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