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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

* Spot gold is expected to rise back towards $2460 level on weakness in dollar and softening of US treasury yields across curve. Yields and Dollar are moving south as recent Job data heighten fears that labor market is deteriorating. Ease in price pressure along with crack in labor market raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September. As per CME FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in a 81% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points in September. Additionally, demand for safe haven may increase on escalating tension in Middle East. Gold is likely to rise back towards $2460 level as long as it stays above $2405 level (20-Day EMA)

* MCX Gold Oct is expected to hold the support near 69,300 level and rise back towards 70,200 level. A break above 70,200 level prices may rally further towards 70,500/70,900 level

* MCX Silver September is expected to rise back towards 84,000 level as long as it stays above 81,500 level

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to trade with negative bias amid pessimistic global market sentiments as weaker than expected job data from US stoked fears of recession ahead and mounting demand concerns in China. Further, weaker manufacturing activity across Asia, Europe and US raised the risk of sluggish economic recovery, weighing on metal demand. Furthermore, prices may slip on persistent rise in copper stockpiles along with decline in cancel warrants at LME registered warehouses.

* MCX Copper Aug is expected to slip further towards 780 level as long as it stays below 802 level. A break below 780 level prices may skid further towards 775 level

* Aluminum is expected move south towards 208 level as long as it stays below 213 level. A break below 208 level prices may slip further towards 206.50 level

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to slip further towards $72 level on risk aversion in the global markets after weak job data from US stoked fears of recession. Further, disappointing economic data across major countries raised concern over sluggish global economic recovery, weighing on oil prices. Moreover, falling diesel consumption in China, is also weighing on global oil prices. While, higher concentration of OI at call strike 75 would act as stiff resistance. Meanwhile, sharp fall my be cushioned on escalating tension in Middle East after Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah pledged to retaliate against Israel for the killings of Hamas' leader Ismail Haniyeh and Fuad Shukr. NYMEX Crude oil is likely to slip towards $72 as long as it trades below $75.0 level

* MCX Crude oil is likely to move south towards 6000 level as long as it stays below 6300 level

* MCX Natural gas Aug is likely to slip towards 158 level as long as it stays below 171 level.

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