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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

* Intl gold is expected to rise further towards $2450 level amid weakness in dollar and softening of US treasury yields across curve. Yields and dollar are moving south as US Fed policymakers are increasingly confident that inflation is cooling enough to allow interest rate cuts ahead. As per CME FedWatch tool markets see a 100% chance of a US cut rate in September meeting. Moreover prices may rally as bullion is considered a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Meanwhile, higher OI concentration at call strike 2450 would act as stiff resistance, while on put side, the 2400 strike holds maximum open interest, providing support to the prices. Intl gold is expected to rise further towards $2450 level as long as its stays above $2408 level (20-Day EMA)

* MCX Gold Oct is expected to rise further towards 70,300 level as long as it stays above 69,400 level

* MCX Silver September is expected to rise further towards 81,500 (10-Day EMA) level as long as it stays above 79,400 level

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to trade with positive bias amid optimistic global market sentiments and growing confidence that US Federal Reserve would lower interest rates in September. As per CME FedWatch tool traders are currently pricing in a 48% probability of a 50 basis point cut, and 52% odds of a 25 basis point reduction Additionally, China’s Yangshan premium, an indicator of import demand, rose to $63 per ton Friday, indicating recovery in demand. Meanwhile, traders will await data on China's new yuan loans and total social financing, as it is viewed as an indicator of future industrial metals demand

* MCX Copper Aug is expected to rise back towards 787 level (10-Day EMA) as long as it stays above 770 level. A break above 787 level prices may rise further towards 802 level (20-day EMA)

* Aluminum is expected move north towards 217 level as long as it stays above 213 level. A break above 217 level prices may rise further towards 220 level

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to rise further towards $78.0 level on rise in risk appetite in the global markets, weakness in dollar and supply concerns. Further, prices may rally as some of the US central bankers are of view that inflation appeared to be cooling enough for Fed to start cutting rates as soon as next month. Moreover, escalating tension in Middle East and eastern Europe would support prices. Further, higher OI concentration at put strike $75 would act as strong support for the prices, while on call side maximum OI at strike $80 would act as strong resistance. NYMEX Crude oil is likely to rise towards $78 level as long as it trades above $75.80 level

* MCX Crude oil is likely to move north towards 6550 level as long as it stays above 6347 level (200-Day EMA)

* MCX Natural gas Aug is likely to rise towards 192 level as long as it stays above 175 level. A break above 192 would open doors for 200 level

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