MCX Gold Seen Rising Towards Rs 1.50 Lakh - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is expected to find support near $4060 and rise towards $4180 level on safe haven demand. Further, People’s Bank of China expanded its reserves by 740koz in September. That was the 23rd month of accumulation. As per CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 18% probability of a Fed rate hike in October, down from 64% a week ago. Additionally, prices may find support on continuous central bank buying and strong ETF inflows. Meanwhile, prices may face pressure on strong dollar and rising U.S treasury yields. Investors will continue to keep an eye on Fed official's comments and key economic data this week for further cues.
• MCX Gold December is expected to find support near Rs 148,000 and rise towards Rs 150,500 level.
• MCX Silver December is expected to move in a wide range between Rs 220,000 and rs 228,000 level. Only a move above Rs 228,000, it would rise towards rs 230,000 level.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade higher amid supply concerns. Further, weaker South American mine output, Democratic Republic of Congo's export ban and El Nino-related disruptions have constrained concentrate availability, keeping treatment and refining charges under pressure. Additionally, prices may find support on expectations of loosen monetary policy in October. Meanwhile, sharp upside will be limited on strong dollar and weak demand from China.
• MCX Copper October is expected to find support near Rs 1410 level and rise towards rs 1428 level. Only a move above Rs 1428 level, it will rise towards Rs1435 level.
• MCX Aluminum October is expected to face resistance near rs 344 level and dip towards rs 336. MCX Zinc October is likely to find support near Rs 414 level and rise towards rs 424 level.
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX crude oil is expected to face resistance near $92 and dip towards $87 on easing supply concerns in the middle east. Further, Ship tracking data showed that crude oil exports reached over 18mb/d in the last week of September. Additionally, prices may face pressure on mixed EIA inventory report, which showed US crude production rose to a record high and gasoline supplies unexpectedly increased. Meanwhile, sharp downside may be limited as UK’s Maritime Trade Operations reported at least nine attacks in the key waterway in this month. Further, growing speculation over fresh strikes from US in Iran ahead of Midterm election could bring further volatility in price.
• MCX Crude oil October is expected to face resistance near Rs 8900 and rise towards Rs 8400 level.
• MCX Natural gas October is expected to find support near rs 304 level and rise towards rs 320 level.
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