MCX Gold Oct is expected to extend its rally towards 72,000, as long as it trades above 71,100 - ICICI Direct
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Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is expected to hold the support near $2480 level and move higher towards $2530 amid soft dollar. Dovish comments from the Fed members, moderation in US inflation numbers and rise in unemployment rate has raised the expectation of more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Further, increasing ETF buying and rising CFTC net speculative long positions indicates bullishness in the precious metal. Meanwhile, market will keep an eye on key comments from the Fed member Bostic and Barr to get more clues. Comex gold futures is expected to move in the range of $2520 and $2550. Above $2550 it would rally towards $2575.
* MCX Gold Oct is expected to extend its rally towards 72,000, as long as it trades above 71,100.
* Spot silver is expected to rise towards $29.90, as long as it holds above $28.70. MCX Silver September is expected to rise further towards 86,000 level as long as it stays above 82,800 level.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to trade with positive bias amid soft dollar and improved risk appetite. Less than expected export of copper in Jully and 15% decrease in shanghai copper inventory last month indicates improvement in the domestic purchase. Export of unwrought copper and products fell 40% from June to 140940 tons. On the other hand rising LME inventories and sluggish growth in the Chinese economy would hurt the demand outlook and limit more upside in the metal price.
* MCX Copper Aug is expected to rise towards 810 level as long as it stays above 796 level. A move above 810 would open the upside towards 818.
* Aluminum is expected move north towards 227 level as long as it stays above 220.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to remain under pressure amid demand concerns from China. Further, progress of the ceasefire talks has also reduced the risk premium in oil prices and eases the supply concerns. Weaker economic numbers from China and increasing output from US would also check the upside in prices. Meanwhile, improved risk sentiments and increasing bets of interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve would limit the downside in prices. NYMEX Crude oil is likely to face the hurdle near $75.50 and move lower towards the $72 mark.
* MCX Crude oil Sep is likely to remain under pressure as long as it trades under 6400 level. On the downside 6060, would act as good support. Only below 6060 it would slide towards 6000.
* MCX Natural gas Aug is likely move towards 192 as long as it stays above 178 level. Declining US production and expectation of cooling demand from major states would support the gas prices to hold firm.
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