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Bullion Outlook

Metal’s Outlook

* Spot gold is expected to find support at $2370 and move towards $2400 amid softness in the dollar. Recent economic numbers from US indicated moderation in growth, which would force Federal Reserve to lower the rates in September. The probability of rate cut in September has went up to 75% after last week’s job numbers. Meanwhile, focus will remain on key comments from the Fed members this week which could bring further clarity in timing of first interest rate cut. Further, closure of OTM calls indicates prices to move higher.

* MCX Gold Aug is expected to hold the key support near 72,700 and move towards 73,550. Above 73550 it would open the doors towards 74,000.

* MCX Silver September is expected to hold the support near 92,500 and rise towards 94,300. Above 94,350 it would open the doors towards 95,600.

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to hold its gains amid hopes of policy support from China. Further, softness in the US dollar and increasing prospects of September rate cut would also strengthen the bullish bets in the metal. Increasing demand of the metal since last few weeks indicated improving consumption of the metals. Again, rise in premium on imported copper for the first time in two months would also strengthen the bullish outlook in the metal.

* MCX Copper July is expected to hold the support near 868 and move towards 882. Above 882, it would rally towards 886 mark.

* Aluminum is expected to rise towards 235, as long as it holds above the 20-day EMA at 231. However, rising inventory levels in LME and increased production from China would check its upside.

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to move in the range of $82-$84.50 as most investors are trying to access the impact of the Tropical storm Beryl which is likely to hit Texas on Monday. Closer of key ports could bring a temporary halt to crude and liquefied natural gas exports, oil shipments to refineries which would provide immediate support to price. Further, geopolitical tension in the Middle east and increasing bets of rate cut in Septembers would strengthen its bullish outlook. Meanwhile, $85 mark would act as major hurdle for price as highest OI concentration at 85 strike call would act as good supply zone

* MCX Crude oil July is likely to hold the 10-day EMA at 6880 and rise towards 7080. Bullish crossover 10 and 20 day EMA, along with strong RSI would support the trend.

* MCX Natural gas July is likely to find the floor near 190 and rebound towards initial hurdle at 204 ( 5 DEMA). Only close below 190, it would slide towards 184

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