MCX Gold April is expected to face resistance near Rs.148,000 and move towards Rs.140,000 - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is hovering below $4475 and is expected to move lower towards $4275 amid stronger dollar. Further, ongoing Iran war has increased inflation concerns, prompting markets to price in a prolonged pause or even potential rate hikes from major central banks. In addition to that, recent fund liquidation of precious metals will be negative for prices. last week gold funds posted $4.5 billion in outflows, largest weekly withdrawal since October. On the other hand, geopolitical uncertainty and escalating conflict in the Middle east would bring safe haven buying in the precious metals and limit its downside.
* MCX Gold April is expected to face resistance near Rs148,000 and move towards Rs140,000. Only a move below Rs140,000, it would turn weaker towards Rs137,500.
* International spot silver is expected to move in the range of $64 and $71. MCX Silver May is expected to move in between Rs220,000 and Rs236,000. Only a move above Rs246,000 it would rise towards Rs254,000.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are likely to trade lower amid strong dollar and rising exchange inventories. LME copper inventory hit 342,350 tons, nearly doubling from January low of approximately 170,525. A rapid buildup of exchange stockpiles since the start of the year reflects a growing bearish mood in the physical market for copper. Further, ongoing geopolitical and record-high energy costs are biting into factory margins, which may again curb industrial usage of the metals.
* In the near term MCX Copper March is expected to move towards Rs1085 as long as it trades under Rs1120
* MCX Aluminum March is expected to hold above Rs324 and rise towards Rs338 level. Prices are expected to regain its strength due to supply disruption from the Middle east region.
* MCX Zinc March is likely to face hurdle near Rs312 level and move lower towards Rs302 level.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX crude oil is expected to remain volatile and trade higher amid escalating military conflict in the Middle east. Further, declaration of force majeure on oilfields from Iraq would also support prices. Further escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict would support prices, following President Trump's ultimatum to destroy Iran's power infrastructure unless international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is restored. For the day, NYMEX crude is likely to move in a broader range of $94 and $102. A move above $102 it would rise towards $105 mark.
* MCX Crude oil April is likely to move in a broader range of Rs8900 and Rs9400. Only a move above Rs9400 it would rise towards Rs9800.
* MCX Natural gas March future is expected to slip towards Rs275-280 zone as long as it trades under Rs300. NYMEX natural gas is expected to correct further amid easing heating demand in US and rising inventory levels. 4 Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, ICICI Direct Research MCX Crude Oil vs. Natural Gas Energy Outlook MCX Futures Pivot Levels Internat
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