MCX Crude oil Nov is likely to slip towards Rs 5170 level as long as it stays below Rs 5420 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
* Spot Gold is likely to slip back towards $3930 level amid rise in US treasury yields across curve and as dollar trades near multi-months high. Further, recent batch of economic data from US showed resilience in economy, eroding market confidence in additional monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. As per CME FedWatch tool traders are now pricing a 61.5% chance of a rate cut in December, down from about 70% prior to data releases. Moreover, all eyes will be on speeches from Fed policymakers to get more clarity on interest rate trajectory. Meanwhile, demand for safe haven may increase as U.S government shutdown entered its 6th week. Furthermore, supreme court justices appeared skeptical of President Trump's use of an emergency law to impose sweeping tariffs on global imports
* MCX Gold Dec is expected to slip towards Rs 119,200 level as long as it stays below Rs 121,500 level
* MCX Silver Dec is expected to dip towards Rs 145,000 level as long as it stays below Rs 149,000 level
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to trade with a positive bias amid optimistic global market sentiments and better than expected economic data from US. Further, mounting concerns about supplies owing to mine disruption in Indonesia, Chile and Africa will be supportive for the prices. Meanwhile, sharp upside may be capped on worries over demand in top metal consumer China. Yangshan copper premium, a gauge of China's appetite for importing copper dropped to $35 a ton from $58 in late September and a major retreat from above $100 in May. Additionally, investors will keep a close eye on trade data from China to get more cues about economy
* MCX Copper Nov is expected to rise towards Rs 1010 level as long as it stays above Rs 993 level. A break above Rs 1010 level prices may rise further towards Rs 1016 level
* MCX Aluminum Nov is expected to rise back towards Rs 274 level as long as it stays above Rs 269 level. MCX Zinc Nov is likely to move south towards Rs 297 level as long as it stays below Rs 304 level
Energy Outlook
* Crude oil is likely to trade with negative bias and slip towards $58.50 level on concerns over supply glut and expectation of further strength in dollar. There is a fear of oversupply in market as OPEC+ increased output while production from non-OPEC producers is also still growing. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s budget plan, signaled that Canada could scrap a cap on oil and gas emissions. Moreover, investors fear that longer the US government shutdown is maintained, more likely the US economy will suffer. Further, rise in crude oil inventories signals weaker demand. EIA said U.S. crude stocks rose by 5.2 million barrels to 421.2 million barrels last week. However, signs of strongerthan-expected gasoline demand may limit oil price losses
* MCX Crude oil Nov is likely to slip towards Rs 5170 level as long as it stays below Rs 5420 level.
* MCX Natural gas Nov is expected to slip towards Rs 366 level as long as it stays below Rs 386 level
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