MCX Crude oil June is likely to move towards Rs 8800 as long as it trades under Rs 9400 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is likely to move towards $4600 per ounce mark on growing optimism over US-Iran peace deal. A confirmation of peace agreement between two nations will ease inflationary pressure and reduce concerns over interest rate hikes. Further, softening of the US dollar and stabilizing US treasury yields could provide a firm floor to prices. However, sharp upside may be capped on recent hawkish guidance from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who signaled that the central bank should abandon its monetary easing bias.
• MCX Gold June is expected to move in the band of Rs157,500 to Rs161,000. Only a move above Rs161,000 it would rise towards Rs163,000.
• Spot silver is hovering in the broad range of $73 to $78.80. Any move outside of the range would give more clarity in price trend. A move above $78.80 would rise towards $81.50. MCX Silver July is expected to trade in a wide range of Rs 269,000-Rs280,000. Only a move above Rs280,000 it would move to Rs283,500 to Rs285,500 range.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade with a positive bias amid growing optimism over the US-Iran peace agreement that could reopen Strait of Hormuz and eased concerns over inflation and interest rate hikes. A concrete confirmation would improve risk appetite and global industrial demand. Furthermore, softer dollar and strong manufacturing activity in US would support the metals to trade higher. On the demand side, a steady Shanghai Yangshan copper premium at $73 per metric ton serves as a key indicator of resilient physical appetite from China, the world's top consumer.
• MCX Copper May is expected to move towards Rs 1360, as long as it holds above Rs1333. Only a move above Rs 1360, it would rise towards Rs1370 level.
• MCX Aluminum May is expected to hold its ground near Rs 380-Rs 382 level and move towards Rs 390-Rs 392 level. MCX Zinc May is likely to hold above Rs 364 and move towards Rs 370-Rs 372 level. Only a move below Rs 364 it would slip towards Rs 360.
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX crude oil prices are expected to trade lower as US and Iran moved closer to a deal. Any confirmation on the same could lead to reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, an end to hostilities, the release of some frozen Iranian assets, and additional talks focused on curbing Tehran’s nuclear program. Meanwhile, US President stated that US would keep its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in place until a formal agreement is reached, adding that he would not “rush” into a deal. NYMEX crude is hovering below $93 mark, trading nearly 4% lower from its Friday closing. We expect, $96 mark would act as key hurdle and on the downside $89 would as immediate support.
• MCX Crude oil June is likely to move towards Rs 8800 as long as it trades under Rs9400 level. Only a move below Rs 8800 it would correct further towards Rs 8400 levels.
• MCX Natural gas June is expected to face hurdle near Rs 298 level and move lower towards Rs 285-Rs 280 level.
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