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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot gold is likely to rise back towards $2325 level amid softening of US treasury yields. Yields are moving south as recent data from US showed crack in labor market and ease in price pressure, boosting hopes for first rate cut in September. Additionally, market anticipates that softer than expected CPI and PPI data would make it likely that Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed preferred inflation measure, will also show softening of price pressures. Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye on US Consumer sentiment and inflation expectation data. Spot gold prices may rise toward $2325 level as long as it stays above $2285 level

• MCX Gold Aug price is likely to rise back towards 71,500 level as long as it stays above 71,000 level (50-Day EMA). On contrary, a break below 71,000 level prices may slide further towards 70,600 level.

• MCX Silver July is expected to slip further towards 86,500 level (50-Day EMA) as long as it stays below 89,000 level. A break below 86,500 level prices may slip further towards 85,700 level

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to trade with the negative bias amid firm dollar and weak global market sentiments. Further, prices may dip as Copper premiums in top consumer China remained low, while inventories in both LME and SHFE warehouses still rising. Inventories at LME have gone up by 28% over the last month. Additionally, market fears that higher borrowing cost for longer duration will hurt economic growth and dent demand for industrial metals

• MCX Copper is expected to slip further towards 842 level as long as it stays below 868 level (10-Day EMA). A break below 842 prices may skid further towards 836 level

• Aluminum is expected move further south towards 230 level as long as it stays below 236 level. A break below 230 level prices may dip further towards 226 level (89-Day EMA)

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX Crude oil is expected to slip back towards $77.0 level amid strong dollar, risk off sentiment in global markets and unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories and fuel stock. Further, continuing talks over a potential ceasefire in Gaza, could ease fears of oil supply disruptions in the region. Additionally, US Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish tone at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Russia pledged to meet its output obligations under the OPEC+ pact, after saying it exceeded its quota in May. Stricter adherence to the current quotas would be supportive for the prices. NYMEX Crude oil is likely to slip back towards $77.0 level as long as it trades below $79.0 level

• MCX Crude oil July is likely to move south towards 6400 level as long as it stays below 6600 level

• MCX Natural gas June is expected to slip further towards 239 level (10- Day EMA) as long as it stays below 254 level as weekly EIA natural gas supplies rose more than expected

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