MCX Crude oil is likely to rise further towards 6200 levels as long as it trades above 5900 levels - ICICI Direct
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Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot gold is likely to hold the support near $2018 and rise towards $2045 level amid weak dollar and decline in US treasury yields. Dollar and yields may move south as higher than expected CPI data failed to change investors rate cut expectations. As per CME Fedwatch tool traders are still pricing in 73% chance for the 25bps rate cut in March, with several more rate cuts in the year. Moreover, spread between 2 and 10 year notes steepened its inversion to -28.5bps reflecting expectations that Fed will soon starts cutting rates. Additionally, demand for safe haven may increase on mounting tension in Middle East as Iran seized an oil tanker off the coast of Oman and Houthis in Yemen continued their attack against cargo ships travelling through red Sea. MCX Gold prices is likely to move north towards 62,350 level as long as it trades above the support level of 61,600 levels
• MCX Silver is expected to follow gold and rise back towards 72,000 level as long as it sustains above 71,000 level.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade with positive bias amid weak dollar and persistent decline in stockpile at LME registered warehouses. Moreover, prices may rally on expectation that China may provide more stimulus to support economic recovery. Meanwhile, investors will remain cautious ahead of trade data from China
• MCX Copper is expected to rise back towards 721 level as long as it stays above 711 level. A move above 721 would open the doors towards 725 levels.
• Aluminum is expected to hold the support near 202.40 level and rise 190 towards 204.50 levels.
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX Crude oil is expected to rise further towards $75 as long as it stays above $72.50 level amid weak dollar and fear over escalating tension in Middle after US-led forces launched airstrikes against Houthi in Yemen and Iran seized an oil taker off the coast of Oman. Additionally, market continued to price in rate cuts by Fed in March despite of higher than expected inflation. lower interest rates would reduce consumer borrowing cost, boosting economic growth and demand for oil.
• MCX Crude oil is likely to rise further towards 6200 levels as long as it trades above 5900 levels.
• MCX Natural gas is expected to rise further towards 275 level as long as it trades above 255 level as weekly EIA inventory data showed supplies fell more than expected. Inventories fell -140Bcf last week, larger draw than expectations of -121Bcf
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