MCX Crude oil is likely to rise back towards 7250 levels as long as it trades above 7000 levels - ICICI Direct
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Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is expected to hold its gains and trade with the positive bias amid safe haven buying. Now, investors await response from Israel on Iran attacks. Any retaliatory action from Israel on Iran could support the bullions and push prices beyond the $2400 mark. Meanwhile, expectation of improved economic numbers from US could check its upside. Further, focus will also remain on the Fed Chair Powell’s speech which could give more clarity on the timing of first rate cut.
* MCX Gold June is likely to rise further towards 73,000 level as long as it stays above the 5 day SMA support at 71,600 level. A move above 73,200 level it may push the price towards 73,600 level. On the contrary, close below 71,600 level it may correct towards its immediate support of 71000 level.
* MCX Silver May is expected to rise towards 84,500 level as long as it sustains above 82,800 level. Supply concerns would provide strength to the precious metal.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to trade with positive bias amid tightness in the physical market and lower exchange inventory in China. Worries about supply disruption after the recent sanction on Russian supplies of copper and aluminum would support the base metals to hold their gains. Additionally, China’s economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter of 2024. GDP in Jan-Mar period grew 5.3% compared to year ago.
* MCX Copper is expected to find the floor near 5 day SMA at 822 and move north towards 836. A break above 836 would open doors for 844 levels.
* Aluminum is expected to hold the support at 226 and move higher towards 236. Only close below 226 it would turn weaker towards 221 mark.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to trade higher amid heightened tension in the Middle East. Recent attack by Iran on Israel has caused a major threat to supply from the Middle east nations. Meanwhile, focus will shit on the retaliatory action from Israel which could lead to further escalation in the region and disrupt oil supplies from the region. Meanwhile, strong dollar and expectation of higher for longer interest rates by the Fed would limit any major upside in oil prices.
* MCX Crude oil is likely to rise back towards 7250 levels as long as it trades above 7000 levels. Only close below 7000, it would turn weaker.
* Natural gas is expected to remain under pressure amid higher inventory and forecast of less demand due to warm US spring temperature. MCX April futures is expected to face the hurdle near 150 and trade lower towards 136.
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