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Gold

Gold settled 0.78% higher at Rs153,763, supported by a weaker US dollar as investors assessed renewed inflation risks from escalating Middle East tensions and awaited key US inflation data for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The dollar slipped to a four-month low, while producer-price data and consumer-price inflation readings are expected to provide important inputs ahead of the September 16 Fed policy decision. Markets are currently pricing around a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike next week. Meanwhile, intensifying US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices to their highest level in more than three months, after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reported ballistic missile attacks on a US-used military base in Jordan and attacks on 10 ships, following Washington’s destruction of five Iranian oil tankers. The People’s Bank of China extended its gold-buying streak to 22 consecutive months, raising holdings to 76.73 million fine troy ounces from 76.08 million ounces at end-July, while the value of reserves increased to $350.08 billion from $306.35 billion. Indian gold demand improved as lower prices encouraged buying, although Prime Minister Narendra Modi again urged consumers to avoid gold purchases unless necessary. Indian dealers quoted discounts of up to $54 per ounce, narrowing sharply from $135 last week. Chinese bullion traded at premiums of $3.5-$9 per ounce, while London vault holdings increased 0.74% month-on-month to 9,534 tonnes at end-July, valued at $1.2 trillion. Technically, fresh buying interest remains visible as open interest increased 0.2% to 10,427 while prices gained Rs1,184. Gold is currently receiving support near Rs152,475, and sustained weakness below this level could trigger a decline toward Rs151,190. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs154,670, while a decisive move above this level could open the way toward Rs155,580.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 151190-155580.

* Gold rose as weaker dollar boosted demand amid Middle East inflation risks.

* Dollar fell to a 4-month low ahead of US PPI and CPI inflation data.

* Markets priced a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike next week.

Silver

Silver settled 2% higher at Rs244,213, supported by a weaker US dollar as investors assessed renewed inflation risks from escalating Middle East tensions and awaited key US inflation data for signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The dollar fell to a four-month low, while markets are pricing around a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike at the September 16 meeting. UBS expects 25-basis-point rate hikes in September and December, citing resilient US employment, hawkish communication and rising inflation risks. ADP data showed US private employers added an average of 12,000 jobs per week through August 22, up from a downwardly revised 10,000 previously. Attention now turns to Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI, with hotter inflation potentially strengthening rate-hike expectations and limiting silver’s upside. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed to more than three-month highs amid intensifying US-Iran tensions, supporting safe-haven interest but raising concerns over inflation and global growth. London vault holdings stood at 28,213 tonnes at end-July, up 0.5% month-on-month and valued at $52.7 billion. The global silver market is expected to record a sixth consecutive structural deficit, widening to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025 despite a 2% decline in total demand. Industrial fabrication is forecast to fall 3%, while coin and bar demand is projected to rise 18%; global supply is expected to decline 2%. Silver remains 35% below its January record of $121.6 per ounce after a 147% surge during 2025. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 6.11% to 11,612 while prices gained Rs4,786. Silver is receiving support near Rs240,400, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs236,585. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs246,565, and a decisive move above this level could lead prices toward Rs248,915.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 236585-248915.

* Silver edged up as dollar fell to a 4-month low, supporting bullion demand.

* Markets priced a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike next week.

* UBS expects 25-bps Fed rate hikes in both September and December.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 4.18% higher at Rs9,099 as escalating Middle East tensions intensified concerns over energy supply disruptions, inflation and global economic stability. The US military said it destroyed five Iranian crude tankers after attempted strikes on a US Navy warship, while Iran claimed attacks on two American vessels and eight oil tankers in the Gulf and warned shipping crews near Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports. The escalation has increased supply disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran-backed Houthi militants targeted Saudi energy infrastructure, including the 400,000-barrel-per-day Jazan refinery. Recovering Chinese oil demand is also supporting African, Canadian and Latin American crude as refiners seek alternative supplies because of Hormuz-related disruptions. US crude inventories declined 4.45 million barrels in the final week of August, marking the first decline in five weeks and exceeding expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel draw. Cushing inventories increased 0.08 million barrels, while refinery crude runs rose 0.103 million barrels per day. Gasoline inventories declined 1.173 million barrels, whereas distillate stocks increased 0.796 million barrels, marking their first rise in five weeks. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, marking its fourth consecutive downward revision, although it raised its 2027 demand growth outlook. The weaker demand projection could limit sustained gains, but geopolitical risks remain supportive for prices. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased 16.33% to 19,347 while prices gained Rs365. Crude oil is currently getting support near Rs8,940, and a sustained break below this level could trigger a decline toward Rs8,780. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs9,227, while a decisive move above this level could strengthen the trend and push prices toward Rs9,354.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8780-9354.

* Crude oil rose driven by escalating US-Iran tensions and stronger Chinese oil demand.

* US military said it destroyed 5 Iranian crude tankers after missile attacks.

* Iran claimed attacks on 2 US vessels and 8 oil tankers in the Gulf.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 1.68% lower at Rs269.7, pressured by record US production, elevated storage levels and expectations of cooler weather over the next two weeks, which could reduce near-term gas demand. LSEG reported average Lower 48 gas output at 113.7 bcfd so far in September, above the monthly record of 112.2 bcfd in August. Despite mostly warmer-than-normal conditions expected through September 23, projected Lower 48 demand including exports is expected to decline from 111.9 bcfd this week to 109.1 bcfd next week. Gas flows to nine major US LNG export plants increased to 18.3 bcfd in September from 17.2 bcfd in August, although remaining below the April record of 18.8 bcfd. US working gas inventories increased by 30 Bcf to 3,214 Bcf in the week ended August 28. Stocks were 50 Bcf below last year but remained 160 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,054 Bcf, highlighting comfortable supply availability. The EIA expects US dry gas production to reach 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, compared with 107.6 bcfd in 2025. Domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027, while LNG exports are forecast to rise to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. The August LNG export forecast was slightly reduced because of Freeport LNG maintenance. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest increased 9.1% to 58,662 while prices declined Rs4.6. Natural gas is currently getting support near Rs266.8, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of Rs264. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs274.7, while a decisive move above this level could trigger further recovery toward Rs279.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 264-279.8.

* Natural gas slid on record output, ample amounts of gas in storage and forecasts for cooler weather.

* Storage surplus likely narrowed to 4.3% above normal

* US Lower 48 gas output hit 113.7 bcfd in September, up from 112.2 bcfd.

Copper

Copper settled 0.84% higher at Rs1,424.5, supported by tight supplies outside the United States, although gains were capped by renewed Middle East hostilities that raised concerns over global economic growth and copper demand. LME copper has gained 25% since reaching a three-month low in March, driven largely by metal flows toward the United States amid tariff speculation, which tightened availability elsewhere. COMEX inventories climbed to 797,275 short tons, while the LME cash-to-three-month premium narrowed sharply to $40 per ton from more than $500 in mid-August as warehouse inflows eased immediate supply concerns. More than 51% of warrants in LME-registered warehouses were cancelled, while SHFE inventories stood near 63,000 tonnes, down 85% from the mid-March peak and the lowest since January 2024. China imported 382,000 tonnes of unwrought copper and products in August, down from 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-August imports declined 6.7% year-on-year to 3.30 million tonnes. Chilean copper output fell 9.4% year-on-year in July to 403,424 tonnes due to severe weather disruptions. The global refined copper market shifted to a 60,000-tonne deficit in June from a 15,000-tonne surplus in May, although the first-half surplus widened to 131,000 tonnes from 114,000 tonnes a year earlier. June refined production stood at 2.37 million tonnes against consumption of 2.43 million tonnes. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 0.12% to 11,464 while prices increased Rs11.9. Copper is currently getting support near Rs1,409, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of Rs1,393.4. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs1,433.7, while a decisive move above this level could strengthen buying momentum and push prices toward Rs1,442.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1393.4-1442.8.

* Copper prices rallied buoyed by tight supplies outside the United States.

* However, upside seen capped as hostilities in the Middle East flared, raising concerns about global growth and demand.

* China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products fell to 382,000 tons in August from 425,000 tons in July.

Zinc

Zinc settled 1.04% higher at Rs429.05, while LME zinc prices crossed $4,000 per tonne for the first time since 2022 as the market faced significant supply pressures. Production disruptions at several mines, including in China, combined with restricted Iranian ore shipments amid heightened Middle East tensions, raised concerns over concentrate availability. Major mines such as Antamina in Peru and Red Dog in Alaska have experienced declining output as lower-grade ore sections are being processed, while sharply lower smelter treatment charges further signal tight concentrate supplies. LME warehouse inventories remain low historically, with physical zinc availability particularly constrained outside China, although rising Chinese exports could provide some relief. Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories declined 3.3% from the previous week. Nexa reported Q2 zinc production of 79.3 kt, up 8% year-on-year, while Minmetals Resources produced 105,800 tonnes and retained its full-year guidance of 215,000-235,000 tonnes. Glencore reported own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes during H1 2026, down 21% year-on-year, while maintaining its 2026 guidance of 700,000-740,000 tonnes. Boliden zinc concentrate production fell 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes, while MMG produced 106,000 tonnes during H1, representing 48% of its annual guidance. The global refined zinc market moved into a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, although the first-half market retained a 120,000-tonne surplus compared with 74,000 tonnes last year. Elevated prices could nevertheless weaken demand and discourage Chinese buyers. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 0.53% to 2,605 while prices gained Rs4.4. Zinc is currently getting support near Rs424.9, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of Rs420.7. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs431.4, while a decisive move above this level could push prices toward Rs433.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 420.7-433.7.

* Zinc rallied trading LME prices crosses $4,000 for the first time since 2022, as the market faced significant supply pressures.

* Production disruptions at several mines, including in China, have raised concerns over concentrate availability.

* LME warehouse inventories remain low relative to historical levels, while physical zinc availability remains particularly tight outside China.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.85% higher at Rs355.75, supported by persistent supply tightness and shrinking inventories as the ongoing US-Iran conflict disrupted aluminium flows from the Middle East. Gulf Cooperation Council output fell 44% year-on-year in July to 293,000 tonnes from 523,000 tonnes, weighing on global primary production, which declined 1.7% year-on-year to 6.16 million tonnes. LME inventories remained near a 36-year low, while SHFE stocks declined 3% week-on-week, highlighting tight physical availability. Alunorte in Brazil temporarily reduced production to 50% of capacity in August before restoring full output following a temporary terminal access agreement with its gas supplier. Chinese exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products declined to 626,000 tonnes in August from 643,000 tonnes in July, although January-August exports increased 16.7% year-on-year to 4.67 million tonnes. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell 8.8% month-on-month to 201,000 tonnes at end-July. China’s July primary aluminium production increased 2.7% year-on-year to 3.866 million tonnes, partly offsetting weaker Gulf output. EGA expects its Al Taweelah smelter, currently operating at 18% capacity, to return to previous production levels in early 2027, while Alba maintains positive restart and ramp-up expectations. Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions in Western Australia. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 0.14% to 4,263 while prices gained Rs3. Aluminium is currently getting support near Rs352.9, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of Rs350. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs357.4, while a decisive move above this level could strengthen buying momentum and push prices toward Rs359.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 350-359.

* Aluminium rallied supported by persistent supply tightness and shrinking inventories.

* The ongoing US-Iran conflict has crimped aluminum flows from the Middle East, with GCC output falling 44% year-on-year in July.

* LME inventories remained near a 36-year low, while SHFE inventories fell 3% from the previous week.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 0.98% higher at Rs20,500 amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, lower-than-expected sowing expansion and concerns that deficient rainfall and El Nino conditions could affect the developing crop. Continued dry conditions during early growth may reduce yields, while carry-forward stocks have declined significantly over recent years, tightening overall availability. Industry estimates place carry-forward stocks at around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season. However, the upside remained limited as monsoon activity improved across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, easing concerns over crop stress. Key reservoirs in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have also improved water availability, while re-sowing in North Karnataka has been completed following rainfall and crop conditions have improved. Increased farmer selling during the peak harvest window and expectations of improved production have created a softer undertone. European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations have resulted in rejections of non-IPM compliant lots, pressuring commercial-grade turmeric, while rising demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric has supported compliant stocks. Export demand remained positive, with India’s turmeric exports rising 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026 from 13,787 tonnes a year earlier. April-June exports increased 8% to 51,987 tonnes from 47,950 tonnes. China imports reached 2,108 tonnes cumulatively, up 2,710%, while Oman exports rose 469% to 2,342 tonnes. Strong growth was also recorded in Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay, supporting broad-based demand. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices ended at Rs20,215.65, down 0.59%. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 0.19% to 36,090 while prices gained Rs198. Turmeric is currently getting support near Rs20,318, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of Rs20,134. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs20,618, while a decisive move above this level could push prices toward Rs20,734

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20134-20734.

* Turmeric gained amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and lower-than-expected sowing expansion in key growing regions.

* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the next crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20215.65 Rupees dropped by -0.59 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.5% lower at Rs20,995 as aggressive farmer liquidation increased selling pressure, with favorable weather in North-West India allowing faster harvesting and drying and accelerating market arrivals. Rising NCDEX warehouse stocks have reduced the urgency for spot procurement, while large industrial spice grinders remain cautious on bulk purchases and prefer waiting for lower levels. However, downside remained limited as availability of premium-quality bold seeds tightened rapidly, with arrivals at major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan beginning to taper. Export-grade, high-purity cumin supplies are shrinking faster than overall physical availability, while blight outbreaks in Gujarat have affected crop quality and harvestable quantities. European and North American buyers have returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, supporting demand, although geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to disrupt logistics and traditional buying interest. Domestic processors and stockists are also reducing aggressive forward coverage. Production estimates indicate Indian jeera output could decline to 90-92 lakh bags from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Overseas production remains significant, with China output estimated at 70,000-80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes and 10,000-12,000 tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports declined 34% year-on-year to 10,713 tonnes in June 2026, while April-June exports fell 25% to 44,144 tonnes. Strong shipments to Singapore, Oman and Argentina provided some support but failed to offset the broader decline. In Unjha, spot prices ended at Rs21,273.45, up 0.05%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined 9.95% to 4,317 while prices fell Rs105. Jeera is getting support near Rs20,860, and a sustained break below this level could lead to Rs20,730. Resistance is placed at Rs21,160, while a move above this level could push prices toward Rs21,330.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20730-21330.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the upcoming season.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected.

* Large industrial spice grinders are staying away from bulk purchases, waiting for the market to bottom out.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21273.45 Rupees gained by 0.05 percent.

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