MCX Crude oil December is likely to hold the support near 5750 and rise towards 5950 - ICICI Direct
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Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is expected to extend its rebound towards $2680 amid safe haven buying. Escalating geopolitical tension between Russian and Ukraine and risk off sentiments could provide some support to the bullions. Meanwhile, diminishing probability of 25 bps interest rate cut by the Fed in December could restrict its upside. As per the CME Fed watch tool Dec rate cut has reduced to 56% from 82% a week ago. Now, focus will remain on speeches from the Fed members and key economic number’s from US which could bring further volatility in price.
* Spot gold has formed a bullish engulfing pattern after rebounding from the 100 day EMA at $2530, which could support the bullions to trade higher. MCX Gold December is expected to rise towards 76,700 as long as it holds above 50 day EMA at 75,600.
* Spot Silver is likely to hold the support of 100 day EMA at $30.60 and rise towards $31.50. MCX Silver is expected to move towards 91,500, as long as it holds above 89,000.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to face stiff resistance and move lower due to demand uncertainty from China and risk off sentiments. Further, strong dollar and growing speculation over new tariff policies from US could hurt demand recovery. Meanwhile, depleting inventory levels and improved TC charges could provide some support to the base metals. Further, expectation of improvement in US existing home sales data could provide support to the base metals.
* MCX Copper November is expected to face the hurdle near 100 day EMA at 821 and move lower towards 810. Below 810 it would weaken further towards 805.
* MCX Aluminum Nov is expected move in a tight range of 242 and 246. Only a move above 246 it would rise towards 248.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to hold the support near $68 and rebound towards $70 amid escalating geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine. Further, prices may increase on speculation that OPEC+ may push back output increases again when they meet in December. Meanwhile, increasing inventory levels in US and demand concerns from China would limit its upside.
* On the data front, higher OI concentration at 70 call strike could act as immediate hurdle for price. MCX Crude oil December is likely to hold the support near 5750 and rise towards 5950. Only above 5950 it would rise towards 6050. Formation of bullish engulfing pattern indicates prices to hold firm above 5750.
* Natural gas November is expected to hold above 262 and move higher towards 280. A reduced drilling activity and forecast of colder weather would provide support to price.
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