MCX Crude May may dip to Rs.8000-7850 below Rs.8450 - ICICI Direct
Bullion Outlook
* Spot Gold is likely to rise back towards $4900 amid weak dollar and softening of US treasury yields. Further, investors will keep an eye on second round of peace talks between US and Iran before their 2-week ceasefire ends. Any positive outcome of the meeting will increase hope for long term peace agreement. Moreover, oil price rally has narrowed on expectations that potential truce between US and Iran would allow more oil supply from key middle east region. Countries moving towards reconciliation and notably not moving towards wrong direction is talking off worst case scenarios of the table. Meanwhile, traders will keep an eye on whether Kevin Warsh will be confirmed by the Senate to lead Fed, as he faces a confirmation hearing on April 21.
* MCX Gold June is expected to hold the support near Rs.152,000 level and rise towards Rs.155,500- Rs.156,500 level.
* MCX Silver May is expected to slip towards Rs.247,000- Rs.245,000 level as long as it stays below Rs.257,000 level.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to trade with positive bias amid weak dollar, rise in risk appetite in the global markets and expectation of improved economic data from US. Moreover, prospect of stronger demand in China would be supportive for the prices. Yangshan copper premium, a gauge of China's appetite for imported materials, stood at $68 a ton, signaling demand. Meanwhile, rising inventory at LME registered warehouses would weigh on prices. Moreover, investors are worried that prolonged disruption at Strait of Hormuz has intensified energy shock, rising inflation risk and threatened global economic growth.
* MCX Copper April is expected to rise towards Rs.1285 level as long as it stays above Rs.1255 level. A break above Rs.1285 level prices may be pushed towards Rs.1290- Rs.1295 level
* MCX Aluminum April is expected to slip towards Rs.360 level as long as its stays below Rs.368 level. MCX Zinc April is likely to face stiff resistance near Rs.343 level and slip towards Rs.338 level.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is likely to trade with negative bias on growing optimism that peace talk between US and Iran would take place this week and there is a likelihood of extension of existing ceasefire agreement. As per media reports Iran will send delegation for 2 nd round of negotiations, a shift from Tehran’s earlier stance that it would not engage in discussion. Meanwhile, sharp downside may be cushioned as supply concern still lingers in the market. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, remained limited. Moreover, Kuwait declared force majeure on oil shipments due to the strait's blockade. Additionally, investors will remain cautious ahead of slew of economic data from US and Senate confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh to head the Federal Reserve
* MCX Crude oil May is likely to dip towards Rs.8000- Rs.7850 level as long as it stays below Rs.8450 level.
* MCX Natural gas May is expected to rise towards Rs.270- Rs.275 level as long as it stays above Rs.260 level.
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