IGI Logo

Bullion Outlookc

• Spot Gold is likely to trade with negative bias amid firm dollar and rise in US treasury yields. Further, prices may slip as count down to deadline for Iran, imposed by US has begun. US President Donald Trump reiterated his threat to attack Iranian power plants and bridges if Iran does not open the Persian Gulf to shipping. Escalating war in Middle East and closure of Strait of Hormuz has sent energy prices soaring leading to inflation worries and likelihood that central banks may have to delay cutting rates or even raise them. As per CME Fed Watch tool markets are now expecting US Fed to keep rates unchanged through the rest of the year, compared to earlier projection of 2 rate cuts. Moreover, investors will remain cautious ahead of economic data from US

• MCX Gold June is expected to slip towards  Rs.148,000- Rs.146,000 level as long as it stays below  Rs.152,000 level.

• MCX Silver May is expected to slip towards  Rs.220,000- Rs.218,000 level as long as it stays below  Rs.242,000 level.

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to trade with negative bias amid firm dollar and risk aversion in the global markets. Market sentiments are hurt as Iran rejected 45-day ceasefire proposal and said a permanent end to the war was necessary, while US President Doland Trump vowed to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges if his demand are not met. Additionally, persistent rise in inventories at LME registered warehouses would hurt prices. Additionally, investors will remain cautious ahead of slew of economic data from durable goods orders to job data from US to gauge economic health of the country and demand outlook

* MCX Copper April is expected to slip towards  Rs.1145 level as long as it stays below  Rs.1175 level. A break below  Rs.1145 level prices may be pushed towards  Rs.1135- Rs.1130 level

* MCX Aluminum April is expected to slip towards  Rs.347 level as long as its stays below  Rs.357 level. MCX Zinc April is likely to face stiff resistance near  Rs.327 level and slip further towards  Rs.319 level.

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is likely to trade with positive bias amid supply disruption concerns drove by US-Iran conflict. Investors will brace for protentional escalation in Middle East as US President Donald Trump threatened stronger action on Iran if it fails to reopen Strait of Hormuz. Iran has rejected the 45-day ceasefire proposal calling instead for permanent end to hostiles, removal of sanctions and compensation for damages. Further, OPEC+ has agreed to increase its crude output in May by 206,000 bpd which represent less than 2% of supply disrupted by closure of Strait of Hormuz. Increase is not materialistic as oil cannot be exported until the Gulf's chokepoint is opened

* MCX Crude oil April is likely to rise towards  Rs.11,000- Rs.11,300 level as long as it stays above  Rs.10,000 level.

* MCX Natural gas April is expected to slip towards  Rs.255- Rs.250 level as long as it stays below  Rs.276 level.

Please refer disclaimer at https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html

SEBI Registration number INZ000183631