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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

* Spot gold is likely to hold the support near $2550 and move towards key hurdle at $2600 amid softness in the dollar and safe haven buying in the metal. Downward revision to growth and forecast of rise in unemployment rate could provide support to the bullions. Further, resurgence of tenson in the Middle East would increase bullish bids in the metal. Moreover, increasing ETF holdings which hit its highest in last 7-months would support prices to stay higher. Meanwhile, COMEX Gold has highest OI concentration at 2600 strike, which could act as strong resistance for now. A move above $2600 would open the doors towards $2630.

* MCX Gold Oct is expected to hold the key support at 72800 and move higher towards 74,000. Formation of a bullish engulfing pattern would help the prices to move higher.

* Spot silver is expected to hold the support near $29.80 and move towards $31.30. A move above $31.30 would open the doors towards $31.80. MCX Silver is expected to rise towards 90,500 as long as it holds above 88,200.

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to hold its ground and trade higher amid improved risk sentiments and softness in the dollar. Further, increasing premiums of refined metals in China indicates pickup in demand. Moreover, depleting stocks in SHFE since July this year would support the red metal to trade higher. Additionally , lower short term rates by the PBOC could improve money supply and provide necessary push to the economy. On the other hand, higher inventory levels in LME and weaker manufacturing activity in US and China could limit its upside.

* MCX Copper September is expected to hold the support at 807 and move towards 820. A move above 820 would open the doors towards 825.

* MCX Aluminum is expected to hold above 229 and rise towards 234. Only a move below 229 it would turn weaker towards 227.

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to rise towards the $72 mark amid improved risk sentiments and depleting inventory levels in US. Latest data from EIA indicated oil stocks hit lowest in a year. Further, escalating tension in the Middle East would support prices to trade higher. Prices could also find support as the crack spread has reversed from multi month lows indicating demand improvement from refiners. Additionally, supply disruption from Libya and increasing demand hopes would push prices higher. On the upside higher OI concentration observed at $75 call strike which would act as major resistance for price. Similarly $70 would act as strong support for prices.

* MCX Crude oil October is likely to move towards 6000, as long as it holds above 5840. Above 6000, it would open the doors towards 6140.

* MCX Natural gas September is expected to rise towards 204, as long as it holds above 188. Forecast of warmer US temperature would improve demand and push prices higher.

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