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Nifty : 23882

Technical Outlook

Day that was ..

• Indian equity markets witnessed a sharp sell-off on Wednesday, July 8, amid rising tensions in the Middle East, a surge in crude oil prices and weak global cues. Nifty settled at 23882 down ~516 points (2.12%). Market breadth turned negative with an A/D ratio of 1:4, as Broader markets Nifty Mid and Smallcap lost 1.5% and 2.5% respectively. All major sectoral indices closed in negative while BFSI, FMCG and Oil & Gas were the top underperformers. Meanwhile, India VIX, the volatility index, jumped 26 per cent and moved above the 14 mark, reflecting increased market uncertainty

Technical Outlook :

• The benchmark witnessed a gap down opening and gradually drifted downward. With fresh geopolitical tension, index accelerated its decline on the breach of 100-day EMA in the later half of the session. The daily price action formed a bearish candle with biggest intraday fall since March 19, 2026, indicating corrective bias.

• The index witnessed a mean reversion towards 50 days EMA after retreating from 200 days EMA. However, from the structural perspective it has maintained its higher peak and trough formation on the weekly time-frame. Hence, we believe, the current decline is form of a retracement of the previous major up move recorded from the 11 June 2026 lows of 23072, indicating temporary breather which would make market healthy.

• We believe, ongoing retracement is a part of the prevailing uptrend which would make market healthy. Therefore, any dip from hereon should be used as buying opportunity as strong support is placed in the 23600-23400 zone which we expect to hold. Further, any ease of in geopolitical tension would fuel the momentum towards 24500 being placement of 200 days EMA.

• As per change of polarity concept, earlier breakout area of 23600 which coincides with the gap area and 61.8% retracement of previous rally would act as a strong support threshold.

• Midcap index extended breather over fourth consecutive week while small cap index seen profit booking after recent outperformance. We expect small cap index to retest its 18 months falling trend line and form a higher base.

• Sectorally, The Nifty Oil & Gas, Nifty Auto and Nifty FMCG indices dropped over 2 per cent as investors worried about the impact of rising crude prices. The Nifty PSU Bank index was the biggest sectoral loser, falling 2.72 per cent. The index extended its decline for the fifth consecutive session and recorded its sharpest fall since May 8, 2026. It has declined more than 5.88 per cent over the last five trading sessions.

Key Monitorable :

• Fed Minutes

• Commencement of Q1 earnings Intraday Rational :

• Trend – Selling pressure emerged on the breach of 100-day EMA, indicating corrective bias.

• Levels – Buy around 80% of yesterday range.

Nifty Bank : 56742

Technical Outlook

Day that was :

Bank Nifty Index ended the day on negative note at 56742 down 2.5% on back of geopolitical development and rise in brent crude prices.

Te chnical Outlook :

• Post gap-down opening Index witnessed lack of follow through that resulted in extended correction. Index accelerated downward momentum on breach of last week low. Consequently, the daily price action resulted into long bear candle with lower high lower low indicating extended profit booking.

• Key point to highlight is that index closed below its 20-day EMA for first time after 20- sessions signaling pause in upward momentum.

• Structurally Index is undergoing healthy consolidation Since June low after 11% rally, weekly stochastic oscillator is cooling off that would help Index form a strong base and set the stage for next leg of up move. On larger degree time frame Index has maintained higher high higher. Immediate resistance is placed at 58000 being Wednesdays high.

• Immediate support is placed around 55500 levels being gap-area formed on 12th June and 80% retracement of recent up move.We believe pullback options will remain open until Index holds above gap-area .

• PSU Bank Index has approached its 52- week EMA coinciding with lower band of consolidation of past 3 months.Therefore holding above April & May identical lows will keep pullback options open and set the stage for next keg of upmove.

Intraday Rational :

• Trend - Index closed below its 20-day EMA for first time after 20- sessions, signaling pause in upward momentum

• Levels : Buy around 80% of yesterday range.

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