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Below the Market Commentary (closing) for 16th September 2026 by Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research, Bajaj Broking

Market Closing Commentary      

Indian benchmark indices remained volatile through the session but managed to close marginally higher, with participation remaining limited ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision due later tonight. Elevated crude oil prices, with Brent trading near the $108 per barrel mark, continued to weigh on investor sentiment and kept market participants cautious. The overall session remained range bound as investors preferred to stay on the sidelines ahead of the key global event.

At close, the Nifty 50 gained 0.43% to settle at 23,217, while the Sensex advanced 0.45% to close at 74,336.

On the sectoral front, FMCG, Financial Services, Media, and Realty emerged as the top-performing sectors, supported by selective buying interest. On the downside, Nifty IT and Pharma remained the key laggards, witnessing selling pressure during the session.

The broader market remained subdued, with the Nifty Midcap 100 ending largely flat at -0.01%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 declined 0.18%. The muted performance of the broader indices reflected limited participation ahead of the Fed decision.

Nifty Outlook

The index has formed a High Wave candle following a strong bearish candle, indicating absorption of selling pressure and rejection of lower levels, with the formation suggesting consolidation with stock-specific action.

The ongoing consolidation around the 61.8% retracement zone of the immediate swing (22,182–24,774) indicates a potential base formation at lower levels.

Despite the recent stabilization, the index has not yet formed a Higher High–Higher Low structure, keeping the broader sentiment cautious.

The 23,600 level, corresponding to Tuesday’s high, remains the key hurdle. A sustained move above 23,600 would improve the short-term structure and shift the bias towards positive.

On the downside, 23,116 (Wednesday’s low) remains the immediate support. A breach below this level would resume the corrective move towards 23,000.

Bank Nifty Outlook

The index has formed an Inside Bar candle on the daily chart, with price remaining within the previous day’s range, indicating consolidation following the recent sharp correction.

Bank Nifty has reclaimed the 56,000 level, which coincides with the lower band of the broader channel and the lower end of the 11-week trading range of 56,000–58,700.

Despite the stabilization, the broader structure remains cautious as the index continues to trade below key resistance levels and has yet to establish a sustained Higher High–Higher Low formation.

55,700, the previous week’s low, remains the immediate downside trigger. A decisive breach below this level could extend the corrective move towards 55,200, followed by 54,800.

On the higher side, 57,000 remains the key hurdle. A sustained close above 57,000, accompanied by a Higher High–Higher Low formation on the daily chart, would indicate a potential pause in the prevailing downtrend.

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