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Market Closing Commentary

Indian benchmark indices ended the session on 16th April on a slightly negative note, amid heightened volatility driven by weekly Sensex expiry, despite supportive cues from a stronger Indian rupee and Brent crude hovering near the $96 mark. At close, the Sensex declined by 122.56 points or 0.16% to settle at 77,988.68, while the Nifty slipped 34.55 points or 0.14% to close at 24,196.75.

On the sectoral front, most indices traded with a positive undertone, with notable gains seen in Nifty Metal, Nifty IT, Media, and Consumer Durables. On the other hand, Nifty Auto and Banking stocks (Private & PSU) emerged as laggards, while the rest of the sectors traded with a mixed bias.

The broader market outperformed the benchmarks and mirrored a positive sentiment, with the Nifty Midcap 100 rising by 0.63% and the Small cap index gaining 0.89%, indicating continued participation in the broader space..

Nifty Outlook                            

 The index formed a bearish candlestick pattern with a higher high and a lower low signaling consolidation with high volatility. The index in the process has retraced approximately 50% of its prior decline from 26,373 to 22,183. On the daily timeframe, the stochastic oscillator has moved close to overbought territory following a sharp rally of nearly 2,200 points over the past nine trading sessions. In light of this rapid upward movement, a phase of consolidation within the range of 23,400 to 24,400 cannot be ruled out in the near term.

From a support perspective, immediate short-term support is positioned in the zone of 23,450–23,100. This region aligns with the recent gap area as well as the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). Holding above this support band would help sustain the current pullback trend.

On the upside, a decisive close above 24,400 is likely to trigger further momentum, potentially leading the index towards the 24,700–24,800 range being the confluence of the 200 days EMA and the previous breakdown area.

Bank Nifty Outlook

The index formed a bearish candlestick pattern with a higher high and a lower low signaling consolidation with high volatility. The index in the process retraced more than 50% of its prior decline from 61,764 to 49,955. On the daily timeframe, the stochastic oscillator has moved close to overbought territory following a sharp rally of nearly 7,000 points over the past nine trading sessions. In light of this rapid upward movement, a phase of consolidation within the range of 57,000 to 54,000 cannot be ruled out in the near term.

From a short-term perspective, support is placed in the range of 54,000–53,000 zone, which coincides with the confluence of the recent gap area and the 20-day EMA. Sustaining above this support band will keep the current pullback trend intact. On the upside, a decisive close above 57,000 is likely to trigger further momentum, potentially leading the index towards the 58,000–59,200 range. This zone represents a confluence of the 6th of March gap area and 78.2% retracement of the recent decline 61,764 to 49,955.

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