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Nifty

March series was a bull-dominated affair, helping the index snap its five-month losing streak with a gain of nearly 1,050 points. The momentum carried into expiry day, as the index rebounded sharply from its 200-DEMA support at 23,400 and closed near 23,600. Nifty rollovers stood at 76%, lower than its three-month average of 81%, indicating profit booking ahead of the earnings season. A notable takeaway from the expiry data is that FII long positions have surged to 40%, the highest since October 2024. Options data suggests an immediate trading range of 23,500–24,000. On the technical front, trend strength indicators remain positive. However, a close below 23,400 (200-DEMA) could trigger a pullback toward the 20-DEMA support at 23,040, where the 50-DEMA is also converging. Traders should maintain long positions as long as 23,390 holds on a closing basis. A breach of this level would warrant reducing exposure as a prudent risk-management measure. With the rally stretching from 22,350 to 24,000, traders should consider long-short opportunities, as the reward-to-risk equation becomes less favorable near key resistance levels in the 23,800–24,200 zone.

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