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Gold 

Gold prices saw a marginal decrease of -0.01%, closing at 58,588 due to strong consumer spending, fueled by robust US Monthly Retail Sales in August, surpassing expectations and July's figures. Monthly headline PPI also exceeded estimates, with a growth of 0.7%, contributing to an annual increase in US headline PPI to 1.6%, double the previous release. However, the US job market saw a slight increase in first-time jobless claims, rising to 220K, though slightly below the expected 225K, marking a deviation from the recent decline trend. This indicates some uncertainty in the labor market. Meanwhile, India witnessed a substantial surge of about 40% in gold imports during August, driven by festive buying. This surge raises concerns about the country's already high trade deficit, primarily due to rising oil prices. From a technical standpoint, the gold market experienced long liquidation, with a -2.97% drop in open interest, closing at 10,755. Prices also dipped by -5 rupees. Gold's support now rests at 58,420, with a potential test of 58,255 levels, while resistance is expected at 58,685, and a breakthrough could push prices to 58,785.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58255-58785.
* Gold price faces selling pressure due to upbeat consumer spending momentum
* US Monthly Retail Sales for August rose sharply by 0.6% in August against expectations of 0.2% and July's reading of 0.5%.
* India's Gold imports surged about 40% in August on strong festive buying

Silver 

Silver prices faced a decline of -0.61%, closing at 70,982, primarily due to the strength of the US dollar. The US economy's resilience and expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining high borrowing costs boosted the dollar index, which rose over 0.5% to its highest point since March. Recent data also supported the belief that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise borrowing costs. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered what many analysts consider the final rate hike in the current cycle. US retail sales for August exceeded expectations with a 0.6% month-on-month increase, and producer prices saw the most significant rise since June 2022, increasing by 0.7%. Strong services PMI and labor market data suggesting tightness fueled concerns that inflation might persist, increasing the likelihood of another rate hike by the US central bank in November. High-interest rates not only make the dollar more attractive but also elevate the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like silver. Moreover, elevated borrowing costs negatively impact silver's demand for industrial uses, particularly in solar panels and sustainable energy generation methods, as reflected in the decline of solar energy equity indices. From a technical perspective, the silver market witnessed fresh selling, with a 9.55% increase in open interest, reaching 19,929. Prices dropped by -437 rupees. Silver's support level is at 70,255, with a potential test of 69,535, while resistance is expected at 71,500, and a breakthrough could lead to testing 72,025.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 69535-72025.
* Silver dropped pressured by a strength in the US dollar
* The dollar index rose by more than 0.5% to cross 105, the highest since March
* The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose toward the 4.3% mark, heading near the 15-year high of 4.34%.

Crude oil 

Crude oil had a significant gain of 2.22%, closing at 7,501, driven by expectations of a tightening global oil market. The International Energy Agency highlighted ongoing supply cuts from major producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, leading to a notable market deficit in the fourth quarter. OPEC also projected a substantial 3.3 million barrel per day deficit, while the US Energy Information Administration had a more conservative estimate of a 230,000-barrel deficit. However, there was a surprise in US crude oil stockpiles, which increased for the first time in a month. This was due to higher imports and production recovery to pre-pandemic levels. Crude inventories rose by 4 million barrels, surpassing expectations for a 1.9 million-barrel drop. Crude stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma, fell to their lowest levels since December, while inventories on the Gulf Coast rose significantly. Additionally, US crude imports reached their highest rate since January 2022. From a technical standpoint, the crude oil market saw fresh buying, with a 19.09% increase in open interest, settling at 8,004. Prices surged by 163 rupees. Crude oil's support is at 7,406, with the potential for a test of 7,311, while resistance is expected at 7,554, and a breakthrough could lead to testing 7,607.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7311-7607.
* Crude oil rose driven by expectations of a tightening global oil market.
* IEA reported ongoing supply cuts by major producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, leading to a significant market deficit
* OPEC also predicted a substantial 3.3 million barrel per day deficit

Natural gas

Natural gas recorded a notable gain of 1.94%, settling at 225.6, driven by several factors. Daily output dropped, crude futures rose, and forecasts indicated higher gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Additionally, signs that the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas was receiving more feedgas contributed to the bullish sentiment. In terms of storage, US utilities added 57 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage, surpassing expectations of a 48 bcf increase. Although this was lower than last year's 74 bcf increase during the same week, it exceeded the five-year average increase of 76 bcf. Total stockpiles reached 3.205 trillion cubic feet (tcf), which is 45 bcf higher than the previous year and 203 bcf above the five-year average. Weather forecasts indicated that the lower 48 states would experience near-normal conditions until September 18, followed by a warmer-than-usual period from September 22 to 29. However, daily LNG feedgas was expected to reach only 12.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) due to a reduction at the Freeport LNG plant. From a technical perspective, the natural gas market witnessed short covering, with a 15.41% drop in open interest, settling at 29,878. Prices increased by 4.3 rupees. Natural gas's support level is at 222.3, with a potential test of 218.9, while resistance is expected at 231.8, and a breakthrough could lead to testing 237.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 218.9-237.9.
* Natural gas gained on a drop in daily output, and forecasts for higher gas demand.
* Support also seen on signs that Freeport LNG export plant in Texas started to pull in more feedgas.
* US utilities added 57 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage


Copper

Copper prices saw a 0.6% increase, closing at 737.1, boosted by optimism regarding increased demand in China's industrial sector. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) reduced its reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for the second time this year. This aligns with relaxed property acquisition rules in key construction areas and targeted financial support to boost industrial activity. China's macroeconomic indicators have shown improvement, including slight expansion in August PMIs, rebounding consumer prices, and stronger-than-expected credit growth. However, the copper price surge is somewhat constrained by a notable increase in Chinese copper inventories, which grew by over 8,000 tonnes in the first week of September. The global refined copper market recorded a 90,000 metric ton deficit in June, up from 58,000 metric tons in May, according to the ICSG. However, for the first half of the year, there was a 213,000 metric ton surplus, compared to a 196,000 metric ton deficit in the same period the previous year. In June, world refined copper output was 2.25 million metric tons, while consumption was 2.34 million metric tons. From a technical perspective, copper experienced short covering, with a 12.22% drop in open interest, settling at 4,376. Prices rose by 4.4 rupees. Copper's support level is at 732.8, with the potential for a test of 728.5, while resistance is expected at 740.4, and a breakthrough could lead to testing 743.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 728.5-743.7.
* Copper gains supported by optimism regarding improved demand in China.
* PBOC has cut its reserve requirement ratio for the second time this year.
* However, the rise in copper prices is somewhat limited by a significant increase in Chinese copper inventories.

Zinc

Zinc prices climbed by 1.07% to reach 225.95, driven by China's measures to support its economic recovery. Notably, LME inventories continued to drop significantly, and news of production cuts at overseas mines created a global supply shortage, providing strong support for zinc prices. However, it's essential to note that there's a unique situation in the zinc market. The discount on near-term delivery compared to the three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has reached its highest point since March 2021. This suggests a surplus of immediate supply. The discount for cash zinc against the three-month contract reached $24.50 per metric ton, its deepest since March 2021, indicating abundant near-term supply. Despite this surplus, zinc inventories in LME-approved warehouses increased to 153,575 metric tons by the end of August, their highest level since February 2022. However, they have since fallen to 138,400 tons. Stocks of zinc in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange have also doubled this year to 46,579 tons. China has increased domestic production of refined zinc this year, but the Shanghai market still faces low inventory and tight time-spreads, indicating some supply constraints. From a technical perspective, the zinc market experienced fresh buying, with a 1.34% increase in open interest, settling at 4,988. Prices rose by 2.4 rupees. Zinc's support level is at 224.3, with the potential for a test of 222.5, while resistance is expected at 227.5, and a breakthrough could lead to testing 228.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 222.5-228.9.
* Zinc prices rose on China's measures to support economic recovery.
* LME inventories continued to decline significantly, and with news of production cuts at overseas mines supported prices.
* China has stepped up domestic output of refined zinc this year


Aluminium

Aluminium prices gained 0.72%, closing at 203.75, following China's central bank's decision to reduce bank reserve requirements, supporting economic recovery. This year, demand for aluminium in China, the top metals consumer, has been uneven due to the post-COVID economic recovery. However, September typically sees a demand surge as industrial activities pick up after the summer. ANZ predicts a shift towards an aluminium market deficit by 2024, which could bolster prices. They maintain a price projection of $2,500 per ton for the 0-3 month timeframe. Supply pressures are mounting due to China's production capacity limits and Indonesia's ban on bauxite exports. Rising demand for solar panels and electric vehicles in China is expected to offset reduced usage in construction. China Hongqiao Group is expanding aluminium smelting capacity in the country's southwest, aiming to reach 4 million tons by end-2025 with a focus on low-carbon energy. In August 2023, China's aluminium production increased by 3.9% year-on-year, reaching 3.623 million metric tons. From a technical standpoint, aluminium witnessed short covering, with a 9.87% drop in open interest, settling at 3,353. Prices rose by 1.45 rupees. Support for aluminium stands at 202.8, with the potential for a test of 201.6, while resistance is expected at 204.8, and a breakthrough could lead to testing 205.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 201.6-205.6.
* Aluminum rises as China's central bank trims bank reserve requirements to boost recovery.
* Demand has been muted this year by a patchy post-COVID economic recovery in top metals consumer China.
* September normally sees strong demand as industrial activities pick up after a summer lull.

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy saw a marginal uptick of 0.13% yesterday, closing at 60,980, driven by concerns over supply from key U.S. growing regions. The 2023/24 U.S. cotton outlook reveals a mixed picture, with higher beginning stocks but lower production, exports, and ending stocks. Surprisingly, large warehouse stocks reported for July 31, 2023, led to an increase in beginning stocks for 2022/23. However, the 2023/24 U.S. production forecast dipped by 860,000 bales this month, mainly in the Southeast and Southwest regions. While consumption remained steady, exports decreased by 200,000 bales, and ending stocks dropped by 100,000 bales. The season-average price for upland cotton in 2023/24 is projected at 80 cents per pound, up 1 cent from the previous month. On the global front, the 2023/24 world cotton projections reflect lower beginning stocks, production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks compared to the previous month's data. In India, cotton cultivation faced challenges with a 3.65 lakh hectare reduction in sowing, primarily due to poor monsoon conditions in Gujarat. The closure of major mills and low stock levels of old cotton crops also contributed to tight local supplies. The new cotton crop has begun arriving in parts of North and South India, with prices hovering above the minimum support price (MSP). Early arrivals, around 3,000 bales daily, are expected to pick up post-September 15 as demand strengthens. Telangana witnessed a slight decrease in cotton cultivation due to unfavorable seasonal conditions. Cotton picking is set to gain momentum in the state towards the second or third week of November. The central government's pre-sowing price forecast for cotton in 2023-24 anticipates normal rainfall and an expansion in crop area. In the Rajkot spot market, prices ended at 29,387.25 Rupees, marking a slight decline of -0.13%. From a technical perspective, the market experienced short covering, with open interest dropping by -1.03% to 96 contracts. Prices rose by 80 rupees. Key support levels for Cottoncandy are at 60,820 and 60,660, while resistance is expected at 61,120, with the potential for prices to test 61,260.
Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 60660-61260.
* Cotton gains on some concerns over supply from key U.S. growing regions.
* However, heavy rainfall in China's Xinjiang region is expected to impact cotton quality and quantity.
* China's cotton production was lowered to 5.9 million metric tons on reduced planted area for 2023/24
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 29387.25 Rupees dropped by -0.13 percent.

Turmeric 

Turmeric had a significant increase of 5.99%, settling at 14,830, driven by improved buying activities due to festive demand. Supplies are limited, and the outlook for production is grim, especially in Maharashtra, where turmeric cultivation has decreased. Upcoming rainfall in Maharashtra and Telangana is expected to benefit turmeric crops, but supply remains constrained. Decreased cultivation in Maharashtra has added to price uncertainty and supported higher prices. Export inquiries have been subdued, adding pressure to prices. Farmers have shifted focus, leading to expectations of a 20-25% decrease in turmeric sowing this year across states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Turmeric exports from April to June 2023 rose by 16.87% compared to the same period in 2022. India is facing its lowest monsoon rains in eight years, and El Niño weather may further reduce September precipitation. This could lead to higher prices for essentials like sugar, pulses, rice, and vegetables, increasing food inflation. Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with a drop in open interest by -0.27% and a price increase of 838 rupees. Turmeric finds support at 14,126, with potential testing of 13,424 levels on the downside. Resistance is expected at 15,180, with the possibility of prices reaching 15,532 upon breaking that level.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13424-15532.
* Turmeric prices gained as buying activities has improved.
* Supplies are down whereas production prospects are also looking bleak
* The upcoming week is expected to bring normal to above-normal rainfall to Maharashtra and Telangana
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13620.05 Rupees gained by 0.16 percent.

jeera

 jeera market saw a modest 0.5% increase yesterday, closing at 63175, driven by a decline in local supplies. Festive demand for jeera has sparked interest among stockists, especially with millers holding fewer stockpiles. However, the current price competitiveness of Indian jeera is not favorable for exporters, which could dampen export activity in the coming weeks. The reduced buying from China, a major consumer of Indian jeera, has also impacted overall exports. Uncertainty looms as China might consider purchasing Indian cumin in October-November before the new crop arrives. Additionally, drier weather conditions in Gujarat are expected to boost arrivals, potentially capping upward price movements. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is projected to surpass supply this year, with exports in April-June 2023 increasing by 13.16% compared to the same period in 2022. In June 2023, jeera exports decreased by 59.81% compared to May 2023 and by 51.78% compared to June 2022. In the major spot market of Unjha, prices closed at 61348.5 Rupees, up 0.25%. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying with a 5.1% increase in open interest, settling at 4947. Prices have risen by 315 rupees. Support for jeera is seen at 62600, with potential testing of 62020 levels, while resistance is anticipated at 63830, and a move above that could lead to testing 64480.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 62020-64480.
*Jeera prices gained due to a decrease in supplies.
* The increased demand for jeera during festivals has piqued the interest of stockists
* Drier weather condition in Gujarat will also lead to rise in arrivals that will cap the upwards move.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 61348.5 Rupees gained by 0.25 percent.