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Gold

Gold closed higher by 0.29% at 61540, capitalizing on the dollar's weakness, as traders speculated that US interest rates have peaked. Despite a mixed economic scenario in the US, weak consumer spending suggests the Federal Reserve's rate hikes are impacting the broader economy. In Asia, there was selling of physical gold due to high prices, especially during India's wedding season, leading to dealers offering deeper discounts. The bullion industry hoped for Diwali's momentum to continue, but elevated prices are dampening demand. Dealers increased discounts to $6 per ounce over official domestic prices, compared to last week's $3 discounts. China's premiums fell to $20-$40 per ounce over global spot prices, hovering around $2,000 per ounce. Investors are now anticipating guidance from upcoming PCE prices, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and income/spending figures. In Japan, October services PPI at 2.3% supports expectations of the Bank of Japan potentially normalizing monetary policy next year. From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, with a notable -29.48% drop in open interest to settle at 3029. Despite this, prices rose by 176 rupees. Gold finds support at 61430, and a break below this level could test 61320. Resistance is expected at 61670, with a move above potentially pushing prices to test 61800.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 61320-61800.
* Gold gains as traders piled on bets that US interest rates have already peaked.
* Data showed orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell a more-than-expected 5.4% in October
* The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week

Silver

Silver recorded a significant 1.25% gain, closing at 74806, buoyed by a weaker dollar and declining US Treasuries, signaling a potential halt in Fed interest rate hikes. The backdrop of robust demand and concerns about industrial silver supply shortages further contributed to the positive momentum. The Silver Institute's projection of a 2% drop in global mined silver production in 2023, primarily from Mexico and Peru, added to the bullish sentiment. Market players anticipate an 8%-10% surge in silver demand, driven by increased investments in solar panels, power grids, and 5G networks. However, the US housing market exhibited a downturn, with new home sales falling by 5.6% in October to an annualized rate of 679,000 homes. September sales were revised lower to 719,000, missing the consensus forecast of 724,000. Nevertheless, new home sales remained 17.7% above the October 2022 estimate. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from October 31-November 1, 2023, revealed unanimous agreement among participants that the Fed should proceed cautiously, making policy decisions based on incoming information and its implications for the economic outlook and risks. From a technical perspective, the market is undergoing short covering, with a notable -26.24% drop in open interest to 10745. Despite this, prices surged by 922 rupees. Silver finds support at 73685, and a breach below this level could test 72565. Resistance is anticipated at 76355, and a move above may lead to testing 77905.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 72565-77905.
* Silver gains benefiting from a softer dollar and falling US Treasuries
* Fed will not hike interest rates further and might cut rates at the April 30-May 1, 2024 meeting to support growth.
* Lower silver output in Peru, Mexico to drag down global production

Crude oil

Crude oil closed lower by -1.23% at 6267, reflecting investor anticipation of this week's crucial OPEC+ meeting and expected supply curbs extending into 2024. The meeting was rescheduled to address disputes over output quotas for African members like Angola and Nigeria. US government data revealed an unexpected surge in crude inventories by 8.7 million barrels, far exceeding the forecasted 1.16 million barrel increase. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a potential oil market surplus in 2024, even if OPEC+ extends cuts into the next year. Currently, the market is in a deficit, with stocks declining rapidly. The IEA's Toril Bosoni noted low global oil stocks, posing volatility risks amid surprises in demand or supply. The oil market is also on edge due to the Middle East crisis, as highlighted by IEA head Fatih Birol. Despite an expected economic growth deceleration, the IEA raised oil demand growth forecasts for this year and the next. From a technical standpoint, fresh selling is observed, with a 2.59% increase in open interest to 11730. Despite this, prices declined by -78 rupees. Crude oil finds support at 6159, and a break below could test 6052. Resistance is anticipated at 6370, and a move above may lead to testing 6474.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6052-6474.
* Crude oil prices fell as investors awaited this week's OPEC+ meeting and expected curbs on supplies into 2024.
* IEA sees surplus oil supply in 2024 even if OPEC+ extends current cuts
* Crude inventories jumped by about 8.7 million barrels last week, way above forecasts for a 1.16 million barrel increase.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled down by -2.86% at 244.7, primarily driven by record output and mild weather conditions limiting heating demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a withdrawal of 7 billion cubic feet (bcf) from storage during the week ended Nov. 17. This contrasts with a withdrawal of 60 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year average decline of 53 bcf. The surge in gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states to 107.5 bcfd in November, up from a record 104.2 bcfd in October, contributed to the downward pressure on prices. Meteorological projections indicate a shift in weather patterns, transitioning from warmer than normal to colder than normal from Nov. 24-Dec. 1 before returning to warmer conditions from Dec. 3-7. Anticipating colder weather, financial firm LSEG forecasts a significant jump in U.S. gas demand from 112.8 bcfd this week to 130.5 bcfd next week, including exports. Despite the current decline in prices, the outlook suggests a potential for upward pressure as colder weather sets in. Gas flows to major U.S. LNG export plants have increased, averaging 14.3 bcfd in November, up from 13.7 bcfd in October and setting a monthly record. From a technical perspective, the market is undergoing fresh selling pressure, with a 14.28% gain in open interest to settle at 37678. Despite a decrease in prices by -7.2 rupees, support is identified at 238.7, with a potential test of 232.7 on a breach below. Resistance is expected at 249.4, and a breakthrough could lead to prices testing 254.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 232.7-254.1.
* Natural gas dropped weighed down by record output while mild weather limited heating demand.
* EIA utilities pulled 7 bcf of gas from storage during the week ended Nov. 17.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 107.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from a record 104.2 bcfd in October


Copper

Copper prices closed lower by -0.48%, settling at 718.85, as concerns over demand resurfaced following weak data from China. While China's industrial profits continued to rise for the third consecutive month in October, the pace of growth slowed to 2.7% year-on-year. This figure marked a significant deceleration from the 11.9% increase in September and a 17.2% gain in August, suggesting a need for additional policy support from Beijing to bolster growth in the world's second-largest economy. The softer pace of profit growth, especially against the backdrop of soft global demand, is pressuring authorities to consider further assistance to manufacturers as the economy heads into 2024. Notably, China's economic recovery from the impact of COVID-19 has been challenging, with factors such as housing market distress, local government debt risks, slow global growth, and geopolitical tensions affecting momentum. Surveys of purchasing managers in China's manufacturing sector, crucial for assessing metals demand, are eagerly awaited later this week. From a technical standpoint, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -0.32% drop in open interest to settle at 5001. Despite a decline in prices by -3.45 rupees, support is identified at 717.1, with potential testing of 715.2 on a breach below. Resistance is expected at 722, and a breakthrough could lead to prices testing 725.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 715.2-725.
* Copper slipped as worries about demand resurfaced after weak data from China
* Profits at China's industrial companies rose 2.7% year on year in October, slowing from the 11.9% increase in September.
* The global refined copper market showed a 55,000 metric tons deficit in September.

Zinc

Zinc prices experienced a decline of -0.81%, settling at 226.35, impacted by various factors influencing the global zinc market. China's refined zinc output in October exceeded expectations, growing by 11.14% month-on-month and 17.6% year-on-year to 604,600 metric tons. This surge in production, coupled with a significant inflow of zinc into London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses, which tripled in about a week to the highest levels in over two years, contributed to downward pressure on prices. Nyrstar, a major zinc producer, announced the temporary closure of two U.S. mines in October due to inflationary impacts. This decision followed earlier halts in operations in Ireland and Portugal, collectively contributing to anticipated reductions in zinc production in 2024. Zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses fell by 12.1%, adding some support to the market. The global zinc market shifted to a deficit of 15,400 metric tons in September from a surplus of 28,000 tons in August, according to data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). However, the surplus for the first nine months of the year was 475,000 tons, a significant increase from the 47,000-ton surplus during the same period last year. From a technical perspective, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -7.4% drop in open interest to settle at 3114. Despite a decline in prices by -1.85 rupees, support is identified at 225.2, with potential testing of 224 on a breach below. Resistance is expected at 228.5, and a breakthrough could lead to prices testing 230.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 224-230.6.
* Zinc prices dropped as China's refined zinc output in October seen up by 11.14% month-on-month.
* Global zinc market swings to deficit in September – ILZSG
* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 12.1% from last Friday


Aluminium

Aluminium prices recorded a decline of -0.32%, settling at 203.45, influenced by global factors and specific developments in China. Global primary aluminium output showed a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in October, reaching 6.116 million tonnes, as reported by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Notably, China's primary aluminium imports for January-October surged by 173% year-on-year to 1.17 million metric tons, contributing to a substantial net import increase of 347.33% YoY. In October, Chinese aluminium imports witnessed a remarkable rise of 221.19% YoY and 7.9% MoM to 216,600 metric tons. Concurrently, exports declined, resulting in net imports reaching 216,000 metric tons, up 223.4% YoY and 11.51% MoM. The data reflects China's robust buying appetite, driven by solid demand and expectations of reduced domestic supply. Chinese regulators, including the People's Bank of China, are reportedly formulating a "whitelist" lending support specifically for 50 property developers. Additionally, smelters in Yunnan province have initiated capacity cuts totaling 1.15 million tons in response to power curbs anticipated to last until April. Yunnan, the fourth-largest aluminium producing region in China, contributes around 12% of the country's total capacity. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with a 3.22% gain in open interest, settling at 3272. Despite a modest decline in prices by -0.65 rupees, support is identified at 203.1, with a potential test of 202.8 on a breach below. Resistance is expected at 203.9, and a breakthrough could lead to prices testing 204.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 202.8-204.4.
* Aluminium dropped as global aluminium output rises 3.9% year on year in October
* Data showed that China imported 1.17 million mt of primary aluminum in January-October, up 173% YoY.
* Chinese regulators including the People's Bank of China are drafting a "whitelist" lending support to 50 property developers

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices experienced a decline of -0.66%, settling at 57100, primarily driven by lingering demand concerns. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) forecasts a 7.5% reduction in India's cotton production for the 2023/24 season, reaching 29.5 million bales due to lower planted areas and productivity challenges from El Nino weather conditions. Import projections for the current marketing year suggest an increase to 2.2 million bales, up from the previous year's 1.25 million bales, indicating potential supply constraints. On the global front, the U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2023/24 shows a slight reduction in consumption but higher production and ending stocks. Despite a 273,000 bales increase in production, concerns about lower consumption and higher ending stocks, accounting for 22.5% of use, impact the market sentiment. In India, the CAI's final estimate for the 2022-23 cotton crop production is slightly higher at 31.8 million bales, contrasting with the government's estimate of 34.3 million bales and the industry's estimate of 29.9 million bales for the same season. However, cotton production in north Maharashtra is expected to decline by 25% due to insufficient rainfall, with estimates suggesting a reduction to 15 lakh tonnes from the normal annual production of 20 lakh tonnes. In the major spot market of Rajkot, prices ended at 26967.75 Rupees, reflecting a decline of -0.23%. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with a 4.1% gain in open interest to settle at 127. With prices down by -380 rupees, support is identified at 57100, and a breach below could test 57090. On the upside, resistance is expected at 57120, and a breakthrough could lead to prices testing 57130.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 57090-57130.
* Cotton prices dropped on lingering demand concerns.
* India's cotton production in 2023/24 is likely to fall 7.5%
* USDA cut U.S. production in 2023/24 to 12.8 million bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26967.75 Rupees dropped by -0.23 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric surged by 3.49%, closing at 12,862, driven by potential yield losses due to unfavorable weather conditions. However, upward momentum is tempered by slow buying activities in anticipation of stock releases before the new crops in January 2024. Farmer concerns in Maharashtra over the location of PM Modi's Turmeric Board in Telangana added pressure. The crop is expected to be ready for harvest from January to March, and October's drier-than-average forecast by the IMD may impact crop growth. Despite challenges, sustained price stability is anticipated due to current buying levels, decreasing supplies, and improved export opportunities. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, turmeric prices ended at 13,401.2 Rupees, gaining 0.43%. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with a -0.89% drop in open interest, settling at 11,720. Turmeric is currently supported at 12,548, with a potential test of 12,236 below, and resistance is expected at 13,048, with a move above leading to testing at 13,236.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12236-13236.
* Turmeric gains on low level buying and the potential for yield losses
* In Sep 2023 around 9,085.81 tonnes exported as against 11,322.58 tonnes in Aug 2023 showing a drop of 19.75%.
* Expectations for a 20–25 percent decline in turmeric seeding this year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13401.2 Rupees gained by 0.43 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices posted a marginal uptick of 0.09%, settling at 45040, driven by favorable sowing conditions and adequate soil moisture. The market anticipates normal upcoming sowing due to conducive weather, prompting stockists to engage in buying activities following a recent price decline, leading to short covering. However, the global demand for Indian jeera witnessed a decline as buyers preferred alternative sources like Syria and Turkey due to comparatively higher prices in India. Export activities are expected to remain subdued in the coming months, aligning with export seasonality. Despite the competitive pricing of Indian jeera in the global market, exporters face challenges, hindering overseas demand and potentially maintaining a muted export scenario in the weeks ahead. In September 2023, exports declined by 11.02% month-on-month and a significant 60.27% year-on-year, indicating a challenging export environment. The possibility of China purchasing Indian cumin in October-November adds an element of uncertainty to the market dynamics. Meanwhile, in the major spot market of Unjha, prices ended at 45981.75 Rupees, with a marginal gain of 0.01%. From a technical standpoint, the market is undergoing short covering, with a -0.7% drop in open interest to settle at 3402. With prices up by 40 rupees, support is identified at 44270, and a breach below could test 43490. On the upside, resistance is expected at 45690, and a breakthrough could lead to prices testing 46330.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 43490-46330.
* Jeera settled flat as favorable condition for crop will boost the overall sowing activities.
* The upcoming sowing of jeera that is expected to remain normal due to favorable weather condition.
* Stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices triggering short covering.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 45981.75 Rupees gained by 0.01 percent.

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