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Gold

Gold prices experienced a decline of -0.31%, settling at 62149, as investors prepared for a pivotal U.S. inflation reading with potential implications for Federal Reserve monetary policy. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams indicated that the U.S. central bank is on a path to cut interest rates "later this year," despite stronger-than-expected inflation and labor market data in January. Williams emphasized that his overall view of the economy remains steady, highlighting that inflation progress toward the Fed's 2% goal might be "a little bit bumpy" but is ultimately moving "in the right direction." As the vice chair of the Fed's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, Williams holds significant influence. The Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range since last July. Fed officials are cautious about near-term interest rate cuts, given the unprecedented economic conditions they are facing. Investors are closely monitoring the monthly personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, scheduled for release on Thursday. Additionally, attention is on economic indicators such as personal income and spending data, along with speeches by several Fed officials throughout the week. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation, with a -2.01% drop in open interest to 13,033. Gold has support at 62020, and a breach below could test 61890. Resistance is likely at 62310, and a breakout could lead to a test of 62470.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 61890-62470.
* Gold dropped as investors braced for a key US inflation reading
* Fed's Williams says rate cuts likely to happen 'later this year'
* Fed cautious on a rate cut case that has yet to be made

Silver

Silver prices faced a notable decline of -1.49%, settling at 69430, as traders adjusted positions amid expectations for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes revealed that the Fed is not in a rush to cut interest rates, with initial expectations for a reduction in March now shifting to a 53% likelihood of a 25bps cut in June. The evolving sentiment is driven by a more cautious approach from Fed officials, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who emphasized the need to delay rate cuts to assess if January's inflation report was an anomaly. Despite the current fluctuations, silver prices are anticipated to increase throughout the year due to a weakening dollar and lower Treasury yields resulting from the Fed's expected shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson expressed cautious optimism about progress on inflation, considering multiple indicators rather than relying on a single report. Recent data indicating higher-than-expected U.S. consumer and producer prices dashed hopes for an early interest rate cut, further impacting silver. Technically, the market observed long liquidation, with a -7.29% drop in open interest to 18,216. Silver has support at 69130, and a breach below could test 68825. Resistance is likely at 69995, with a potential breakout leading to a test of 70555. Traders should closely monitor the Fed's communications and inflation data, as they continue to play a crucial role in influencing market sentiment and silver's price direction.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 68825-70555.
* Silver prices dipped as traders adjust their positions for the Fed's rate cuts.
* The FOMC minutes showed the Fed is in no rush to cutting interest rates.
* Fed’s Waller said that the central bank should delay rate cuts by at least another couple more months

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged by 1.78%, settling at 6466, as ongoing attacks by Houthi militants in the Red Sea route heightened concerns about supply disruptions. The geopolitical tensions contributed to market uncertainty and supported oil prices. Additionally, the U.S. central bank's indication that interest rate cuts could be delayed by at least two more months had mixed effects on the commodity. Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested that interest rate cuts should be postponed for at least another couple of months, a stance that could potentially slow economic growth and impact oil demand. This perspective added a layer of complexity to the market sentiment, as economic growth expectations influence crude oil prices. On the inventory front, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a rise in U.S. crude oil stockpiles by 3.5 million barrels to 442.9 million barrels, slightly below expectations. However, gasoline stocks fell by 294,000 barrels, and distillate stockpiles, including diesel and heating oil, decreased by 4 million barrels, both deviating from forecasts. Technically, the market observed short covering, with a significant -22.09% drop in open interest to 5498. Crude oil has support at 6354, with a potential test of 6242 on the downside. Resistance is likely at 6525, and a breakout could lead to a test of 6584. Traders should closely monitor geopolitical developments, inventory data, and the broader economic outlook for crude oil price direction in the coming sessions.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6242-6584.
* Crude oil gains as ongoing attacks in the Red Sea, sparking supply worries.
*  The U.S. central bank indicated that interest rate cuts could be delayed by at least two more months.
* U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the EIA said.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices recorded a notable gain of 1.89%, settling at 145.8, as producers intensified efforts to curtail output amid a challenging market environment. Chesapeake Energy led the initiative by reducing its 2024 production plans by approximately 30%, responding to a significant drop in prices to a 3-1/2 year low. Other major gas producers, including Antero Resources, Comstock Resources, and EQT, have also disclosed plans to curtail drilling activities this year. This collective effort by producers is aimed at addressing the surplus of supply, elevated storage levels, and weak heating demand exacerbated by a mild winter. US utilities withdrew 60 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage during the week ending February 16, slightly below market expectations of a 64 bcf draw. Despite the decrease, stockpiles remain elevated at 2.470 trillion cubic feet (tcf), surpassing last year's levels by 265 bcf and exceeding the five-year average by 451 bcf. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying, with a notable 10.71% increase in open interest to 68,477. Natural gas has support at 142.5, and a breach below could test 139.1. Resistance is likely at 151.3, with a potential breakout leading to a test of 156.7. The market's response to production cuts and ongoing technical issues at Freeport LNG's export facility, limiting gas flow to LNG export terminals, will be crucial factors to monitor in determining natural gas price direction in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 139.1-156.7.
*  Natural prices rose amid efforts by producers to curb output.
* Chesapeake Energy has cut its 2024 production plans by around 30% following a sharp drop in prices to a 3-1/2 year low.
* Traders are grappling with a surplus of supply, high storage levels, and weak heating demand.

Copper

Copper prices faced a decline of -0.81%, settling at 725, as the market grappled with pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar ahead of crucial economic data. The focus of investors shifted towards forthcoming inflation data from the United States, Japan, and Europe, shaping expectations for future rate movements. The firmer U.S. dollar and higher inventories in top consumer China contributed to the downward pressure on copper. Deliverable copper stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) reached 181,323 tons after the Lunar New Year holiday, hitting a near one-year high. Despite Beijing's efforts to support the debt-ridden property sector, China's new home prices extended declines in January, adding to concerns about industrial demand for base metals in the country. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a surplus of 20,000 metric tons in the global refined copper market in December, a significant shift from the 123,000 metric tons deficit in November. For the first 12 months of the year, the market showed an 87,000 metric tons deficit compared to a 434,000 metric tons deficit in the same period the previous year. World refined copper output in December stood at 2.39 million metric tons, while consumption reached 2.37 million metric tons. Technically, the market observed long liquidation, with a -3.21% drop in open interest to 3975. Copper has support at 723, and a breach below could test 721. Resistance is likely at 728.7, with a potential breakout leading to a test of 732.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 721-732.4.
* Copper dropped remained under pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar.
* Higher inventories in China also weighed
* Deliverable copper stocks on SHFE after the Lunar New Year holiday scaled 181,323 tons, at a near one-year high.

Zinc

Zinc prices recorded a modest gain of 0.16%, settling at 214.55, driven by an increase in the global zinc market deficit, as reported by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). The data revealed a deficit of 62,600 metric tons in December 2023, up from 53,500 tons in November. For the full year 2023, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 204,000 tons, in contrast to a deficit of 73,000 tons in 2022. Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange witnessed a significant rise of 163.80% from the previous release on February 8. Meanwhile, China's refined zinc output in January 2024 experienced a month-on-month decrease of 4.05%, totaling 567,000 metric tons. The year-on-year increase was 10.9%, falling below previous expectations. The decline in domestic zinc alloy output in January was attributed to smelter maintenance in several provinces and the shutdown of smelters in Yunnan and Guizhou for holidays. Market sentiment was also influenced by the average daily new home sales in China, which plummeted by 34% year-on-year in January. This decline contributed to falling prices, marking the most significant drop in 10 months and raising concerns about weak consumer strength despite Beijing's measures to stimulate property demand. Technically, the market observed short covering, with a -3.53% drop in open interest to 4667. Zinc has support at 213.5, and a breach below could test 212.4. Resistance is likely at 215.6, with a potential breakout leading to a test of 216.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 212.4-216.6.
* Zinc gains as global market deficit increased to 62,600 metric tons in Dec 2023
* Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose by 163.80%
* China's refined zinc output in January 2024 decreased month-on-month by 4.05%

Aluminium

Aluminium prices recorded a marginal gain of 0.1%, settling at 197.75, driven by concerns over a potential nationwide strike in Guinea, a significant bauxite-producing region. The market is apprehensive about the impact on the supply chain if the strike materializes, adding an element of uncertainty to aluminium prices. On the demand side, downstream aluminium companies are gradually resuming production, and with the end of rain and snow and the onset of the peak season, short-term consumption is expected to show continued improvement. Despite the positive demand outlook, the recent opening of the aluminium ingot import window has the potential to limit upward price movements. The aluminium market is characterized by low inventory levels, and weak inventory growth could provide some support to prices. However, the evolving situation in Guinea, recovery in consumption, and inventory dynamics will be critical factors influencing aluminium price trends. Aluminium stocks in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged by 65.6% last week, reaching the highest levels since May of the previous year at 173,482 tons. China's aluminium output in January registered a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, totaling 3.562 million metric tons. Domestic aluminium companies are expected to maintain steady operations in February 2024. Technically, the market observed fresh buying, with a 2.2% increase in open interest to 5239. Aluminium has support at 197.1, and a breach below could test 196.5. Resistance is likely at 198.4, and a move above could lead to a test of 199.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 196.5-199.1.
* Aluminium gains as Guinea may hold a nationwide strike, may affect the supply of bauxite in Guinea
* The United States did not impose sanctions on Russian metal
* Aluminium stocks in SHFE warehouses jumped 65.6% last week to the highest since last May at 173,482 tons.

Cotton

The cotton market experienced a notable upswing yesterday, with Cottoncandy settling up by 0.73% at 60920, driven by concerns over supply constraints and sustained cotton consumption. This uptrend was further supported by significant developments in the global cotton landscape, particularly in the United States and India, which are key players in the cotton market. The 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet reflected lower ending stocks compared to the previous month, with increased exports and reduced mill use, despite unchanged production figures. This shift was primarily fueled by heightened export forecasts, up by 200,000 bales to 12.3 million, buoyed by strong shipment and sales performances. Consequently, ending stocks were revised downwards to 2.8 million bales, equivalent to 20% of total disappearance, indicating a tighter supply outlook. On the global scale, the 2023/24 cotton ending stocks saw a decrease of nearly 700,000 bales, driven by lower beginning stocks and production levels. While consumption remained relatively stable, with increases in China and Vietnam offsetting declines in other key markets such as Turkey, the United States, and Thailand. Notably, India emerged as a significant player in the cotton export market, with February exports set to reach the highest level in two years, driven by competitive pricing and strong demand from Asian buyers. In light of these developments, the technical outlook for Cottoncandy suggests a bullish sentiment, with the market witnessing fresh buying and a gain in open interest by 2.64% to settle at 506. Prices are currently up by 440 rupees, with support levels at 60340 and resistance anticipated at 61240. A breach above resistance could potentially lead to further price appreciation, with a possible test of 61570 levels. However, a downside movement could see prices testing 59770 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 59770-61570.
* Cotton prices gained spurred by concerns over supply
* USDA weekly sales report a 69% increase in exports from previous week
* CAI estimates domestic consumption for the 2023-24 season to remain flat at 311 lakh bales.
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 27978.3 Rupees dropped by -0.02 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices surged by 2.38% in yesterday's trading session, settling at 15666, buoyed by reduced supplies in the spot market. However, the upside was capped by sluggish buying activities amidst expectations of stock releases ahead of the new crop season. Anticipation of delayed harvesting of the new crop, coupled with tighter ending stocks, is expected to maintain positive market sentiments for turmeric in the near term. Despite pressure from improved crop conditions due to favorable weather, the market remains supported by slower exports in recent months, expected to pick up with the onset of festive seasons. Export data reveals a nuanced picture, with turmeric exports during April to December 2023 declining by 2.27% compared to the same period in 2022. However, December 2023 witnessed a notable increase in exports, rising by 21.47% compared to November 2023, albeit with a decline of 13.41% compared to December 2022. In the spot market, exemplified by Nizamabad, turmeric prices concluded at 14461.8 Rupees, marking a robust gain of 2.06%. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying momentum, as indicated by an increase in open interest alongside a significant price rise. Support levels are identified at 15346, with a potential test of 15026, while resistance is expected at 15942, with a possible breakout leading to further price exploration towards 16218.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15026-16218.
* Turmeric gains supported by reduced supplies in the spot market.
* However, upside seen limited as buying activities has been slower in expectation of new crops.
* Export has been slow down in recent months and expected to increase in wake of series of festivals ahead.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14461.8 Rupees gained by 2.06 percent.

Jeera

Jeera (cumin) prices experienced a significant downturn in yesterday's trading session, settling down by -3.36% at 25335, primarily driven by prospects of higher production in key cultivating regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan. The current rabi season witnessed a remarkable expansion in jeera acreage, reaching a four-year high, with farmers notably increasing cultivation in Gujarat and Rajasthan. This surge in acreage is attributed to the record prices observed in the previous marketing season, which incentivized farmers to expand cultivation significantly, illustrating a strong correlation between market prices and acreage trends. In Gujarat, jeera cultivation expanded to cover 5.60 lakh hectares, representing a remarkable 160% increase from the previous year's 2.75 lakh hectares, surpassing the normal acreage of 3.5 lakh hectares for the state. Similarly, Rajasthan witnessed a 25% increase in jeera cultivation, reaching 6.90 lakh hectares compared to 5.50 lakh hectares in the previous year. The global demand for Indian jeera faced challenges as buyers favored alternative origins such as Syria and Turkey due to comparatively higher prices in India. Export volumes during April to December 2023 declined by 29.95% compared to the same period in 2022.  From a technical standpoint, the market is currently undergoing long liquidation, as evidenced by a decrease in open interest despite the significant price decline. Support levels are identified at 24850, with a potential test of 24370, while resistance is anticipated at 26130, with a possible breakout leading to further price exploration towards 26930.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 24370-26930.
* Jeera prices dropped due to higher production prospects
* In Gujarat, Cumin sowing witnessed very strong growth by nearly 103% with 530,030.00 hectares against sown area of 2022
* Stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices triggering short covering.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 28826.25 Rupees gained by 1.21 percent.

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