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Gold

Gold settled down 0.68% at ?1,49,103 as a stronger dollar and renewed expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening weighed on prices. Minutes from the September 15–16 FOMC meeting showed that most policymakers considered another increase in the federal funds rate likely appropriate by year-end, although they emphasized that future decisions would remain data-dependent. All policymakers supported the 25-basis-point increase to 3.75%-4% at the September meeting, while recent comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid reinforced the possibility of further hikes. Markets currently price an 87% probability of a December rate increase, despite softer recent economic data reducing expectations of an October move. Geopolitical uncertainty also remained elevated as US Vice President JD Vance said Iran would need to make a meaningful reduction in nuclear enrichment capacity to satisfy US demands and end the conflict. Despite near-term monetary pressure, structural demand remained supportive, with LBMA delegates forecasting gold at $5,013 per ounce over the next 12 months. Perth Mint gold coin and minted bar sales surged 97.6% month-on-month to 47,300 ounces in September, also 29.3% higher year-on-year. Asian physical demand improved modestly as lower prices attracted buyers, while Chinese bullion traded at premiums of $5-$10 per ounce. London vault holdings increased 0.74% month-on-month to 9,534 tonnes at end-July, valued at $1.2 trillion. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 forecast at $5,400 per ounce, citing continued central bank diversification as the main structural driver, although a more hawkish Fed could temporarily push prices toward $4,070. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest increased 3.23% to 16,701 while prices declined ?1,017, indicating fresh bearish participation. Gold has support at ?1,48,035, and a sustained break below this level could trigger a test of ?1,46,965. On the upside, resistance is placed at ?1,50,055, while a decisive move above this level could extend gains toward ?1,51,005.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 146965-151005.

* Gold prices slipped as the dollar strengthened, while investors awaited minutes from Fed’s September meeting

* Most Fed policymakers judged that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year-end, Fed Minutes

* Fed's Daly: need for hikes hinges on what happens with shocks

Silver

Silver settled down 1.62% at ?2,23,561 as a stronger dollar, rising oil prices, and renewed concerns over inflation and tighter monetary policy weighed on prices. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.32%, returning to levels last seen in 2002, while the 30-year yield rose to a fresh 24-year high of 5.70%, increasing pressure on non-yielding precious metals. Markets are pricing nearly a 78% probability of rates remaining unchanged this month, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in December stands around 69%. Despite the near-term pressure, LBMA delegates forecast silver could reach $97 per ounce over the next 12 months from around $61 currently, reflecting expectations of tightening physical fundamentals. Perth Mint reported strong demand, with September silver sales rising 81.3% month-on-month to 605,408 ounces, the highest since March, and 4.6% above the previous year. London vault holdings increased 0.5% month-on-month to 28,213 tonnes at end-July, valued at $52.7 billion and equivalent to approximately 940,423 silver bars. The global silver market is expected to remain in structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year, with 762 million ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, increasing the risk of renewed liquidity pressure. The 2026 deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, despite total demand falling 2%. Industrial fabrication is forecast to decline 3% to a four-year low, while coin and bar demand is expected to rise 18%, supported by stronger US buying. Total supply is also projected to fall 2%. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 6.83% to 17,728 while prices declined ?3,681, indicating increased participation on the bearish side. Silver is currently finding support at ?2,21,220, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of ?2,18,880. On the upside, resistance is placed at ?2,26,055, and a decisive move above this level could trigger recovery toward ?2,28,550.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 218880-228550.

* Silver dropped as dollar gained amid rising oil prices, concerns over inflation and tighter monetary policy re-emerged.

* Fed meeting noted some officials believe it’s time for the central bank to get ?ready for bond market stress.

* The price of silver is expected to hit $97 over the next 12 months, up from the current level of $61 – LBMA delegates.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled down 0.88% at ?8,552 as the market reacted to efforts by the International Energy Agency to accelerate the release of oil stocks and prioritize diesel supplies amid record-high fuel prices and tightening global availability caused by the Iran war. Geopolitical risks remained elevated after Yemen’s Houthis attacked Aden International Airport with ballistic missiles and explosive-laden drones, while a developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico was expected to become the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 and potentially disrupt US oil and gas facilities. UBS raised its Brent forecasts, expecting prices at $100 per barrel in Q4 2026 compared with its previous $80 estimate, while lifting its 2026 average forecast to $91.57 from $83.74, citing greater-than-expected disruption to Middle East flows and fragile recovery prospects. US crude inventories fell sharply, with EIA data showing a 3.2 million-barrel decline to 424.1 million barrels in the week ended October 2, against expectations for a 1.7 million-barrel increase. Crude stocks at Cushing rose 444,000 barrels, while refinery crude runs increased 223,000 barrels per day and utilization climbed to 92.7%. Gasoline inventories increased 0.4 million barrels to 204.7 million, while distillate stocks remained broadly unchanged at 105.1 million barrels. US crude imports declined 53,000 barrels per day, while another 800,000 barrels were released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking holdings to 283 million barrels. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision, while the IEA warned that shrinking inventories and stretched refining capacity could intensify market tightness as Middle East disruptions persist into 2027. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined 1.18% to 9,390 while prices fell ?76, indicating position unwinding rather than aggressive fresh selling. Crude oil has support at ?8,448, and a sustained break below this level could trigger a test of ?8,345. On the upside, resistance is placed at ?8,739, while a decisive move above this level could lead prices toward ?8,927.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8345-8927.

* Crude oil prices settled lower after IEA agreed to speed up a release of oil stocks

* Houthi strikes on Aden airport intensify fears over regional supply disruption

* US crude oil inventories fell by 2.09 million barrels in the week ending October 2, after rising 1.019 million barrels in the previous week - API

Natural gas

Natural gas settled up 2.89% at ?309.90, supported by lower US production, rising LNG feedgas demand and expectations of stronger consumption. Average gas output across the US Lower 48 states declined to 111.7 bcfd so far in October from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in both August and September, while daily production remained under pressure from force majeure events and pipeline disruptions in Kentucky, Texas and West Virginia. LNG demand also strengthened as feedgas flows increased with Freeport LNG in Texas ramping up gas intake after a liquefaction train returned from maintenance. Weather forecasts turned warmer, with above-average temperatures expected across the western two-thirds of the United States through October 10, potentially increasing cooling demand and gas consumption for power generation. The EIA expects US dry gas production and domestic consumption to reach record levels in 2026 and 2027. Production is projected to rise from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to around 112.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.1 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is expected to increase from 91.9 bcfd to 92.4 bcfd in 2026 and 93.8 bcfd in 2027. US LNG exports are also forecast to rise from a record 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.6 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, highlighting stronger export demand. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined sharply by 14.86% to 29,740 while prices increased ?8.70, indicating closure of bearish positions behind the recovery. Natural gas is currently finding support at ?303.50, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of ?297. On the upside, resistance is placed at ?316, and a decisive move above this level could strengthen the recovery toward ?322. Overall, the near-term outlook remains supported by lower production, stronger LNG feedgas flows and warmer weather expectations, although rising medium-term US production and record supply growth could limit the upside.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 297-322.

* Natural gas prices climbed supported by falling production, LNG feedgas flows, and expectations of more demand.

* Average gas output fell to 111.7 bcfd so far in October, down from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in both August and September.

* EIA projected dry gas production will rise from a record 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 112.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.1 bcfd in 2027.

Copper

Copper settled up 0.42% at ?1,419.45 as supply concerns, particularly the possibility of strike action at major Chilean mines, offset pressure from a stronger dollar. Workers at Chile’s Centinela copper mine were set to strike after wage negotiations between unions and Antofagasta Minerals broke down, while supervisors at the Escondida mine also rejected a collective contract offer, increasing the risk of further disruptions. Chilean copper output fell 12.8% year-on-year in August to its lowest level since February 2011, affected by storm damage and declining ore grades. Tightening availability was also reflected in inventories, with LME warehouse stocks falling 36% since early June and Shanghai Futures Exchange-linked stocks declining 79% over the same period. Bank of America raised its long-term copper price forecast, citing tightening supply outside the United States and persistent market tightness in China. The global refined copper market recorded a 51,000-tonne deficit in July, narrowing from a 74,000-tonne deficit in June, while refined copper output stood at 2.41 million tonnes against consumption of 2.46 million tonnes. However, the first seven months of the year showed a 32,000-tonne surplus compared with a 157,000-tonne surplus in the corresponding period last year. China’s imports of unwrought copper and copper products declined to 382,000 tonnes in August from 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-August imports fell 6.7% year-on-year to 3.30 million tonnes. Copper concentrate imports also declined to 19.49 million tonnes from 20.06 million tonnes. COMEX copper speculators reduced net long positions by 3,940 contracts to 78,709. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased 1.28% to 8,414 while prices gained ?6, indicating fresh participation on the upside. Copper has support at ?1,412.40, and a sustained break below this level could lead to ?1,405.30. On the upside, resistance is placed at ?1,424.60, and a decisive move above this level could extend gains toward ?1,429.70.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1405.3-1429.7.

* Copper gains as workers at Chile's Centinela copper mine strike after talks fail

* Inventories in LME registered warehouses have shed 36% since early June

* Stocks in storage facilities linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange have slumped by 79% in the same period.

Zinc

Zinc settled up 0.48% at ?419.60, supported by tightening supply conditions and disruptions across major producing regions, although gains remained limited as a stronger dollar, higher oil prices and expectations of tighter monetary policy weighed on industrial metals. Nyrstar announced a strategic review of its Dutch zinc smelting operations, highlighting ongoing pressure across the smelting sector. Mitsui Kinzoku, Japan’s major zinc smelter, plans to produce 117,700 tonnes of refined zinc in the second half of fiscal 2026, representing a 32% increase from the previous year. In China, industrial profits rose 15.7% during the first eight months, slowing from 17.6% growth in January-July as weak domestic demand offset strength in high-tech and AI-related manufacturing. Chinese factory activity returned to expansion in September, with the official manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1 from 49.8, while the private RatingDog PMI climbed to a five-month high of 52.1 from 51.5. China’s zinc output declined 1.8% year-on-year in August to 639,000 tonnes, marking its weakest annual performance since May 2025, while Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories fell 1.8% week-on-week. The global refined zinc market recorded a modest surplus of 13,000 tonnes in July, with demand rising 0.56% to 1.177 million tonnes and refined supply increasing 0.3% to 1.190 million tonnes. However, global zinc mine production contracted for the fifth consecutive month, falling 8% year-on-year to around 995,000 tonnes, the steepest decline since May 2024, reinforcing concerns over raw material availability. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 3.13% to 2,136 while prices gained ?2, indicating closure of bearish positions behind the recovery. Zinc is currently finding support at ?417.30, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of ?415.00. On the upside, resistance is placed at ?420.90, and a decisive move above this level could extend gains toward ?422.20.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 415-422.2.

* Zinc gained supported by tightening supply and disruptions across major producing regions.

* However upside seen limited as dollar gained aided by higher oil prices, and remarks from policymakers for signals on a potential rate hike.

* China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled down 0.51% at ?339.65, pressured by easing concerns over Gulf supply disruptions and expectations of additional production capacity in Indonesia, while a stronger dollar and rising global bond yields also weighed on sentiment. However, downside remained limited as improving demand expectations and reduced interest-rate concerns provided support. Japanese aluminium buyers agreed to pay premiums of $255 per tonne over benchmark prices for October-December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter, reflecting softer regional supply concerns. Macquarie lowered its 2026 global aluminium deficit forecast to 820,000 tonnes from 940,000 tonnes previously, citing faster-than-expected Middle East smelter restarts, while expecting the market to move into a 410,000-tonne surplus in 2027. EGA has restarted one-quarter of its Al Taweelah smelter after damage from an Iranian attack, while Rio Tinto secured continued operations at Bell Bay Aluminium through 2031. Chinese aluminium exports rose 17.2% year-on-year in August amid subdued domestic demand and elevated inventories, while Japanese port stocks increased 22.7% month-on-month to 246,600 tonnes. Global aluminium production declined 1.5% year-on-year in August, with GCC output plunging 43% to 299,000 tonnes, although China’s production rose 3% to a record 3.87 million tonnes. SHFE aluminium inventories declined 57,244 tonnes and LME stocks fell 15,575 tonnes, indicating tighter international availability. China’s July exports of unwrought aluminium and semis increased 18.6% year-on-year to 643,000 tonnes, while January-July exports rose 16.7% to 4.04 million tonnes. Alcoa also reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions in Western Australia. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined 1.08% to 4,785 while prices fell ?1.75, indicating unwinding of positions. Aluminium has support at ?338.10, and a sustained break below this level could lead to ?336.50. On the upside, resistance is placed at ?341.70, and a decisive move above this level could extend gains toward ?343.70.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 336.5-343.7.

* Aluminium dropped weighed by easing worries about supply and expectations of new production capacity in Indonesia.

* Japanese aluminium buyers agree to pay Q4 premiums of $255/T, 35% lower than Q3

* Macquarie downgraded their forecast for this year's deficit in the global aluminium market to 820,000 tons, down 120,000 tons from their June estimate

Turmeric

Turmeric settled down 0.49% at ?22,222 due to profit booking after a recent rally driven by severe drought concerns in Karnataka and expectations of tighter production and future supplies. According to the joint drought survey by the Karnataka State Department of Horticulture, Revenue Department and KSDMA, turmeric crop losses have reached 13,446 hectares, valued at ?18,824 lakh, against total state cultivation of around 18,000-20,000 hectares. Supply conditions remain relatively tight due to reduced carry-forward stocks and a hand-to-mouth market, while concerns over El Nino and deficient rainfall have raised risks to the newly sown crop. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season, reducing the availability buffer. However, revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka eased immediate supply concerns, while improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh supported water availability during the vegetative stage. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following rainfall, improving crop conditions. Meanwhile, tighter European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations resulted in rejection of non-IPM compliant lots and pressured commercial-grade turmeric, although increasing demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric supported compliant stocks. Farmers also increased selling during the peak harvest period, limiting the upside. India’s turmeric exports declined 10% year-on-year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes, but cumulative exports during April-July increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes. Exports to Turkey rose 431% to 3,007 tonnes, Sri Lanka increased 644% to 156 tonnes, and Nigeria surged 983% to 69 tonnes, highlighting strong demand from selected destinations. In Nizamabad, the major spot market, prices ended at ?21,395.25, gaining 1.7%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined 1.52% to 35,845 while prices fell ?110, indicating position unwinding. Turmeric has support at ?21,972, and a sustained break below this level could lead to ?21,720. On the upside, resistance is placed at ?22,404, while a decisive move above this level could extend gains toward ?22,584.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 21720-22584.

* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices rose as drought conditions in Karnataka have severely affected crop.

* Some support also seen due to deficient rain and fear of the crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 21395.25 Rupees gained by 1.7 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled up 2.75% at ?24,470, supported by rapidly tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, as supplies of export-grade high-purity cumin declined faster than overall physical availability. Daily arrivals across major markets including Unjha in Gujarat and Rajasthan have started tapering, while blight outbreaks in key Gujarat areas have affected both crop quality and harvestable volumes. European and North American buyers have returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, providing support to premium grades. However, geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to weigh on logistics and demand from traditional buyers. Upside remains capped as farmers aggressively liquidate stocks for cash flow ahead of the next season, while favourable weather enabled faster harvesting and drying. NCDEX warehouse stocks have also increased steadily, reducing urgency among spot traders, while large spice grinders remain cautious and prefer hand-to-mouth purchases instead of bulk procurement. Improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria are also limiting Indian export premiums. Current estimates place India’s jeera production at 90-92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Overseas production is also significant, with China estimated at 70,000-80,000 tonnes, Syria at 9,000-10,000 tonnes, Turkey at 10,000-11,000 tonnes and Afghanistan at 10,000-12,000 tonnes. India’s jeera exports declined 32% year-on-year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, while cumulative April-July exports fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes from 73,026 tonnes. Singapore exports surged 889% to 2,842 tonnes and Libya increased 450% to 341 tonnes, but China exports plunged 88% to 710 tonnes. In Unjha, spot prices ended at ?24,175.30, gaining 0.43%. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 6.55% to 4,107 while prices gained ?655, indicating closure of bearish positions. Jeera has support at ?24,010, and a sustained break below this level could lead to ?23,560, while resistance is placed at ?24,750 and a decisive move above it could extend gains toward ?25,040.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 23560-25040.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* India’s jeera exports declined 32% YoY to 9,318 tonnes in July-2026 from 13,779 tonnes in July-2025.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 24175.3 Rupees gained by 0.43 percent.