IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices eased further, settling lower by 0.64% at 152,071, as renewed selling pressure emerged following cautious signals from the US Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s remarks against near-term rate cuts, citing persistent inflation risks, reinforced expectations of a slower easing cycle. Sentiment was also influenced by President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, which markets initially read as a hawkish tilt, although Trump later clarified that he still expects rate cuts ahead. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks remained in the background, with US–Iran tensions unresolved despite planned nuclear talks in Oman. Physical markets, however, continued to show strong demand. Gold premiums in India surged to over a decade high on robust investment buying and expectations of a duty hike, with dealers charging premiums of up to $121 per ounce. China also saw a sharp rise in premiums, driven by stronger jewellery and investment demand even as global prices hovered near record levels. Elevated prices have drawn retail interest across Shanghai and Hong Kong, while Japan continued to trade at modest discounts. China’s gold fundamentals remain supportive. Domestic production and imports rose in 2025, while investment demand via bars, coins and ETFs jumped sharply, offsetting weaker jewellery consumption. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest down 0.75%. Gold has support at 148,950, with a further downside risk toward 145,830. On the upside, resistance is seen at 154,695, and a breakout could open the door toward 157,320.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 145830-157320.

* Gold dropped pressured by renewed selling after Federal Reserve caution on rate cuts.

* Fed’s Cook said she would not support additional cuts, prioritizing persistent upside inflation risks over signs of a slowing labor market.

* China gold output rises 3.4% to 552 tons in 2025

Silver

Silver settled lower by 9.31% at 243,815, as easing geopolitical tensions and optimism around upcoming US–Iran talks triggered heavy profit booking after the recent surge. Softer macro cues also weighed on sentiment, with US initial jobless claims jumping to 231,000, well above expectations, raising fresh questions about the pace of economic momentum. In Europe, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged, reiterating confidence that inflation will converge toward its 2% target, which further reduced near-term safe-haven demand. Despite the steep fall, the broader fundamentals for silver remain supportive. Analysts continue to flag tight supply conditions, with Goldman Sachs warning that depleted inventories have created squeeze-like dynamics, where prices can move sharply in both directions. Structural deficits in the global silver market, along with steady investment inflows—especially from Chinese participants—have underpinned prices in recent months. Concerns persist over China’s new export licensing rules, which could restrict future shipments, even though exports hit multi-year highs last year. Inventory trends remain mixed. While silver holdings in London vaults rose 2.3% month-on-month by the end of December, stocks in Chinese warehouses have dropped to their lowest levels in nearly a decade, highlighting regional tightness. On the technical front, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 2.67%. Immediate support is seen at 230,175, below which prices could slip toward 216,540. Resistance is placed at 257,770, and a move above that level could open the door toward 271,730.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 216540-271730.

* Silver declined amidst easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of positive results in U.S. and Iran.

* Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 22,000 from the previous week to 231,000 on the last week of January.

* ECB left interest rates unchanged at its first policy meeting of 2026, reiterating that inflation is expected to stabilize at its 2% target.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices came under pressure, settling lower by 2.46% at 5,746, as geopolitical risk premiums eased after Tehran confirmed it would hold talks with Washington this week. The announcement reduced fears of immediate supply disruptions, even as uncertainty lingers over the scope of negotiations. Iran wants discussions limited to its nuclear program, while the US is pushing for a broader agenda, keeping some risk premium intact. On the supply-demand front, OPEC+ continues to signal a cautious approach. The group expects demand to improve gradually from March or April and will decide on March 1 whether to resume monthly output hikes after the first-quarter pause. Coordination within the alliance remains firm, with Russia and Saudi Arabia reaffirming cooperation to support market stability. Adding to the outlook, the IEA revised its global oil demand growth forecast for this year higher to 930,000 bpd, pointing to a slightly narrower surplus. At the same time, US production is expected to ease in 2026 and 2027 after peaking this year, according to the EIA. Inventory data offered some support, with US crude stocks posting a larger-than-expected draw of 3.46 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell sharply, the biggest drop since 2021. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 1.09%. Immediate support is seen at 5,658, below which prices could test 5,570. On the upside, resistance stands at 5,844, and a break above this level may open the path toward 5,942.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5570-5942.

* Crude oil fell after Tehran confirmed it would hold talks with Washington, easing concerns.

* The global oil market will be in deep surplus in the first quarter of 2026 – IEA

* OPEC+ expects oil demand to gradually pick up from March or April

Natural gas

Natural gas prices edged higher, settling up 0.63% at 317.3, supported by increased gas flows to LNG export facilities and slightly stronger demand expectations than earlier forecasts. The gains came despite weather models pointing to a shift toward warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the US through mid-February, which is expected to cap near-term heating demand. While conditions are set to moderate nationwide, the Northeast is likely to remain colder than average for another week, helping to sustain consumption in the near term. On the supply side, average gas production in the Lower 48 states ticked up marginally to 106.4 bcfd so far in February, close to January levels but still below December’s record output. Demand is expected to cool after the recent cold snap, with LSEG projecting total consumption, including exports, to ease from 160.0 bcfd this week to 140.9 bcfd next week. Storage data highlighted the impact of extreme weather, as US utilities withdrew a record 360 bcf from inventories in the latest week, sharply above both last year and the five-year average, leaving stockpiles slightly below seasonal norms. Looking ahead, the EIA expects US gas production to rise to fresh records in 2026 and 2027, even as domestic demand eases, while LNG exports continue to grow steadily. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 3.88%. Immediate support is seen at 304.3, with a break lower exposing 291.2. On the upside, resistance stands at 327.1, and a move above this level could push prices toward 336.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 291.2-336.8.

* Natural gas jumped on increases in gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants.

* That price increase came despite forecasts for the weather to turn warmer than normal through mid-February.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states edged up to 106.4 bcfd so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January.

Copper

Copper prices moved lower, settling down 1.33% at 1,228, as rising supply pressures weighed on market sentiment. The decline was largely driven by developments in China, the world’s largest consumer, where refined copper output is expected to rise by around 5% this year after a sharp 10% increase last year. Adding to the pressure, copper stockpiles continued to build across key trading hubs. Inventories in LME-registered warehouses climbed to 155,725 tons, the highest since March, as material was returned to warrant in Taiwan and South Korea, suggesting some supplies originally headed for the US were redirected elsewhere. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories also posted a weekly increase. Despite near-term weakness, longer-term price expectations remain constructive. Chile’s copper commission Cochilco raised its average price forecast for this year to $4.95 per pound, citing resilient demand, a softer dollar and ongoing geopolitical risks, and sees prices averaging $5.00 per pound in 2027. Supply growth remains mixed, with Chile and Zambia reporting higher output, while Peru posted a notable year-on-year decline. Meanwhile, the refined copper market remains in surplus, with the ICSG reporting a wider surplus in November compared with the previous month. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.92% alongside a price decline. Copper is finding support near 1,204.8, and a break below could open the door to 1,181.4. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1,256.8, with a move above this level likely to test 1,285.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1181.4-1285.4.

* Copper dropped weighed down rising supplies in China.

* China’s refined copper output will likely rise by about 5% this year following a 10% increase last year.

* Rising stockpiles in major trading hubs, particularly LME warehouses in Asia, also weighed on prices.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged lower, settling down 0.45% at 320.25, as the market weighed stable supply conditions against soft demand, particularly ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. With the Spring Festival approaching, inventories are expected to gradually build as downstream activity slows. Several Chinese mines have announced temporary production halts for the holiday season. A zinc mine in Southwest China suspended output in early February and is likely to restart in early March, while a lead-zinc mine in Central China has also begun holiday shutdowns. Together, these stoppages are expected to reduce zinc concentrate metal content by just over 2,000 tons, offering only limited near-term supply tightness. China has recently emerged as a net exporter of refined zinc, shipping 78,500 tons in the fourth quarter, mainly to Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong. This has helped rebuild LME inventories from October’s extremely low levels, although the pace of stock accumulation has slowed in recent weeks. On the supply side, global mine output rose 6.5% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, supported by the restart of Ireland’s Tara mine and ramp-ups elsewhere. China’s refined zinc production hit a record 675,000 tons in December, up 13.1% year-on-year, as smelters responded to strong margins. From a technical perspective, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest falling 4.76% alongside a modest price decline. Zinc is finding support near 318.2, and a break below could test 316. On the upside, resistance is seen at 321.8, with a move above opening the door toward 323.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 316-323.2.

* Zinc dropped amid stable supply and weak demand, with inventories expected to gradually accumulate.

* South China zinc mine to halt production for over 10 days, reducing zinc concentrate output by 4,000 mt

* China turned net exporter of refined zinc in November and December after a vicious squeeze on the LME contract in October.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices slipped 0.52% to settle at 307.3, pressured mainly by rising inventory levels. Market participants are increasingly focused on the post–Chinese New Year period, with social inventories expected to peak at their highest level in nearly three years. In China, refined aluminium production remained steady in December 2025, reaching a record 3.87 million tons, up 2.9% year on year. Full-year output climbed to about 45.3 million tons, slightly above the capacity cap, reflecting stable operations despite slower average daily production. Aluminium product output also hit a record high, underscoring healthy downstream activity. Macro signals from China remain supportive. Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.3 in January, the fastest expansion in three months, helped by stronger new orders and exports to Southeast Asia. Additional support came from monetary easing, with the PBOC guiding the one-year MLF rate to a record low and signaling further liquidity measures in 2026. Globally, supply constraints persist due to disruptions at smelters in Iceland, Mozambique and Australia, while demand from electric vehicles and power grids remains firm. Reflecting this, Goldman Sachs raised its first-half price forecast sharply, citing low inventories and power constraints for new capacity. On the technical front, aluminium is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling sharply alongside prices. Immediate support is seen at 303.6, and a break below could test 299.9. On the upside, resistance stands at 309.7, with further strength likely to open the path toward 312.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 299.9-312.1.

* Aluminium dropped as inventory pressure is gradually increasing.

* The peak social inventory after the Chinese New Year holiday is expected to hit a new high in nearly three years.

* China’s refined aluminium production maintained a steady trajectory in December 2025, up 2.9% year-on-year.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged lower yesterday, slipping 0.4% to settle at 16,732, as higher acreage during the current sowing season weighed on sentiment. Favourable rains have encouraged planting, and acreage for the 2025–26 season is estimated at about 3.02 lakh hectares, roughly 4% higher year-on-year. Even so, supply growth is expected to be moderate, as weather irregularities and localized disease have affected yields in key producing states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Unseasonal heavy rainfall during August–September caused waterlogging and disease in parts of Marathwada, impacting around 15% of the area. Despite the pressure from higher acreage, downside appears limited. Arrivals remain below normal and both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced inventories, providing a firm base ahead of new crop arrivals. For 2025–26, fresh production is projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes, while dried output is estimated at 90 lakh bags, up from 82.5 lakh bags last season. Lower carry-forward stocks, however, restrict the overall increase in availability. Demand remains strong both domestically and internationally, with exports during April–November 2025 rising nearly 5% year-on-year. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest up 0.8% to 16,980. Support is seen at 16,624, with a further downside risk to 16,514. On the upside, resistance lies at 16,846, and a move above could push prices toward 16,958.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16514-16958.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16142.85 Rupees dropped by -0.19 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged higher yesterday, gaining 0.29% to settle at 23,810, supported by weather-related issues and delayed sowing that continue to keep near-term supplies tight. Gujarat, in particular, is witnessing one of the slowest sowing seasons in years as fields are not fully prepared. Sowing in the state is currently estimated at about 3.98 lakh hectares, down over 16% from last year, which has helped underpin prices. Arrivals at Unjha remain very low, and good-quality cumin continues to attract premium rates. That said, the upside appears capped. Comfortable carry-in stocks and muted export demand are limiting further gains. Export interest from Gulf countries and China has improved marginally, but buyers remain highly price-sensitive. Much of the current export demand is being met from existing stocks, as the retail season has largely concluded and foreign buying remains subdued. Farmers are still holding around 20 lakh bags of cumin, of which only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded before the season ends, leaving sizeable carry-forward stocks. Production for the current season is estimated at around 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, mainly due to reduced sowing. However, similar production levels are still expected given better crop conditions. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest up 1.78% to 5,481. Support is seen at 23,610, with downside risk toward 23,410. On the upside, resistance lies at 23,940, and a break above could test 24,070.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 23410-24070.

* Jeera gained as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* Export demand from Gulf countries and China has improved a bit but is still price-sensitive.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 23445.7 Rupees dropped by -0.34 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views